What’s the motive behind the Presidential moves? 

It is interesting to note that President Maithripala Sirisena -who sought a determination from the Supreme Court in January last year as to when his term would expire -is reportedly planning to seek the opinion of the same court on the same question.

Last time he wanted to know whether it is five years or six years that he can stay in office and accordingly when his term expires. 
And this time he wants to know whether it was on January 9, 2015, or on May 15, 2015, that his five-year term of office commenced. 
The first date is the one on which Maithripala Sirisena was sworn in as the President, while the other was the date on which the Speaker gave his assent to the 19th Amendment to the Constitution.
Last time he approached the Supreme Court on the grounds that he had already been given a six-year mandate by the people, despite the 19th Amendment having reduced the term of the President to five years from six years. However, the apex court ruled that the 19th Amendment had retrospective effect on his term and he could stay in office only for five years from the date he was sworn in.

"The significance of both his attempts is that if he succeeded in those attempts, he would get the opportunity to dissolve Parliament once Parliament completes four and a half years from its first meeting, in February next year"

This time, according to Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP) General Secretary, Dayasiri Jayasekera, the President is to approach the court on the basis that although he took oaths as President on January 9, 2015, the 19th Amendment, the basic law that governs the matters relating to the Executive of the country was signed into law by the then Speaker Chamal Rajapaksa on May 15, 2015. In fact, the Speaker signed it on May 15, 2015.
But on both occasions, he, in fact, wants to know when his term expires. To put it more precisely, he wants to obtain legal sanction to his ambition to extend his tenure beyond December 9, this year, the last date, according to the general perception, on which the next Presidential election is to be held.
In spite of there being a grey area on the duration of his tenure before the Supreme Court gave its ruling, the Constitution seems to be very clear on President’s purported latest question, the date on which his term commences. 

• President wants legal sanction to his ambition to extend his tenure beyond December 9
• It is clear that the next election has to be held between November 9 and December 9

The 19th Amendment to the Constitution says: 
“The person declared elected as President at an election held under this paragraph shall, if such person is not the President in office, hold office for a term of five years commencing on the date on which the result of such election is declared.”
The same Article of the Constitution again says: “Where the President in office is not a candidate or is not re-elected, at a poll for the election of a President, his term of office shall be deemed to have expired on the date on which the result of such election is declared. The person elected as President at such election shall assume office forthwith, but not later than two weeks from such date” 
Therefore it is clear that President Sirisena’s term commenced on January 9, 2015, and the next Presidential election has to be held between November 9 and December 9 this year.
President Sirisena had declared more than once that he would not run for the presidency for a second time. 
However, the circumstances seem to have changed his mind. 
Now, not only does he want to go for a second term but ironically prefers to do so using the vote bank of the person he defeated at the last Presidential election, the former President, Mahinda Rajapaksa. 

Accordingly, he wanted last year to get the Supreme Court to rule that his term of office was six years so that he can stay in office until December 9, 2020. 
Since he failed in that attempt, now he looks forward to the court to declare that his term commenced on or after the Speaker gave his assent to the 19th Amendment, on May 15, 2015.
The significance of both his attempts is that if he succeeded in those attempts, he would get the opportunity to dissolve Parliament once Parliament completes four and a half years from its first meeting, in February next year.
 Then it would be his prerogative to declare which election - Presidential or Parliamentary – would be held first. This would give him additional leverage to influence the Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP) unofficially led by Opposition Leader Mahinda Rajapaksa in its selection of the next Presidential candidate. 
The SLPP is in dilemma over its candidate for the next Presidential election. 
They prefer Mahinda Rajapaksa over any other in the party or in the Rajapaksa family. But he has been barred from contesting by the 19th Amendment on the grounds that he had already been elected twice by the people for the Presidency. 

"At the same time, going by the speculations that are rife, by yesterday that something unexpected is to occur during the Sinhala and Tamil New Year holidays, the whole exercise has to be deemed as a distractive move"

Now it is said that they were planning to field the next best candidate, Gotabaya Rajapaksa, the then Defence Secretary.
However, some leaders of Joint Opposition such as Kumara Welgama are of the view that Mahinda Rajapaksa would be able to be elected to the post of President by changing the relevant law if he is first elected to the post of Prime Minister. 
The suggestion is that he would buy MPs from other parties, as he did in the past, to get the two-thirds majority in Parliament in order to bring in the necessary Constitutional amendments. Mahinda Rajapaksa also seems to be subscribing to this view.
Accordingly, the Joint Opposition and the SLPP were demanding a Parliamentary election weeks ago while the United National Party (UNP) was agitating for a Presidential election first. 
However, the Gotabaya factor has been gaining momentum lately within the ranks of the SLPP and the Joint Opposition, despite the former President denying that the SLPP has decided on his brother’s candidacy. 

Thus there is a situation in the SLPP where a Parliamentary election is favourable to Mahinda Rajapaksa while a Presidential election would serve the interest of his brother.
JVP Politburo member K.D. Lalkantha recently argued that Mahinda Rajapaksa would not agree with Gotabaya Rajapaksa’s candidacy as the latter’s ascension to the topmost post would obscure him as a “star” for good. 
It is against this backdrop that President Sirisena is set to extend his term up to May 2020, through a determination by the Supreme Court. This would put the leaders of the SLPP and the Joint Opposition in a tight spot. 

"Mahinda Rajapaksa would not agree with Gotabaya Rajapaksa’s candidacy as the latter’s ascension to the topmost post would obscure him as a “star” for good"

They can neither oppose a move favourable to Mahinda Rajapaksa’s interests nor support the postponement of the Presidential election. However, SLPP Chairman Professor G.L. Peiris is reported to have expressed his dislike to the move during the latest round of talks between his party and the SLFP on Monday. 
Most actions of politicians focus around safeguarding their own interests. Yet, it is not clear as to what the President expects for him by extending his tenure. 
If the idea behind the move is to appease Mahinda Rajapaksa in order to get his approval to contest the Presidential Election on behalf of the SLPP, the President would most probably be disappointed. 
At the same time, going by the speculations that are rife, by yesterday that something unexpected is to occur during the Sinhala and Tamil New Year holidays, the whole exercise has to be deemed as a distractive move.