• Mr. Ranawaka contested the elections on the SJB ticket representing the Colombo district
• Says it’s a social movement formed with the primary objective of creating space for people who are products of free education
• Sajith and his loyalists see Mr. Ranawaka as a potential threat in bidding for presidential candidacy

The launch of a new political movement by MP Patali Champika Ranawaka seems to have triggered rumblings within the fold of the Samagi Jana Balawegaya (SJB).  Mr. Ranawaka contested the elections on the SJB ticket representing the Colombo district at the general election on August 5. At that time, he was also spearheading the Jathika Hela Urumaya (JHU). Recently, he closed ranks with the JHU and formed a new political movement titled ‘43rd movement’.  He said it was a social movement formed with the primary objective of creating space for people who are products of free education and came up the hard way in life purely based on merits instead of riding on family and class fortunes.   

He was categorical that it was a social movement, but many interpreted it as the launching pad of his political campaign to realize his presidential ambitions in 2024. It led to an uproar within the SJB led by Opposition Leader Sajith Premadasa.  It was MP Tissa Attanayake, who was quick to remark that only Mr. Premadasa would be the presidential candidate.  The party’s parliamentary group met on Monday ahead of the first sessions of the House in the New Year. 

"Hot on the heels of Mr. Ranawaka’s announcement of such plans, Mr. Premadasa also ventured into fresh political action.  He undertook what he called ‘the mobile service of the opposition leader’"

Mr. Ranawaka briefed the meeting about his motif, but some SJB leaders including its General Secretary MP Ranjith Madduma Bandara sounded skeptical about it. Party’s Gampaha district MP Sarath Fonseka did not mince his words. He asked whether the movement would evolve finally to field a presidential candidate in 2024.  Mr. Ranawaka denied it at the meeting, though. 

Colombo district MP Dr. Harsha de Silva also queried about the movement and its policy formulation strategy.
Mr. Bandara, as the General Secretary, did not like the movement being identified independent of the SJB. As such, he asked Mr. Ranawaka to work with the party in this regard. Referring to Mr. Ranawaka’s move for consultation on policy formulation by his new movement, he said it should be done as a party initiative. 

No matter what Mr. Ranawaka spells out, the SJB has perceived his latest political initiative as a project aimed at realization of his ultimate political goals.  Mr. Ranawaka has articulated the policy of his movement in carefully calculated words. In that sense, he has tried to make his policy acceptable to all across the ethnic divide of the country.  He endorses burials of Muslim victims of COVID-19 in conformity with health guidelines. Today, it has become a polarizing issue in society.  He says he sees an economic aspect to the political question raised by Tamils in the north and the east. All in all, he says he advocates a merit-driven approach to ensure equal rights for people regardless of their ethnicities, and stresses the need for Tamil parties to be alliance partners in future government sharing ministerial responsibilities to develop their own areas economically.   In this manner, his attempt is to project his organization as a platform open for everyone. That is why, he, in an interview with Daily Mirror, said he stands for inclusive social justice. 

" In politics, nothing is impossible. The next presidential election is almost four years away from now. Nobody can predict accurately the exact political landscape that will prevail in the country by that time. It will primarily be shaped by the performance of the present government."

Hot on the heels of Mr. Ranawaka’s announcement of such plans, Mr. Premadasa also ventured into fresh political action.  He undertook what he called ‘the mobile service of the opposition leader’. Under this programme, he started visiting people in remote corners of the country and listening to their grievances. Undoubtedly, he strives to project himself as a mass leader. One cannot rule out Mr. Premadasa’s future political ambitions, particularly at the 2024 presidential elections. 

He and his loyalists have begun to see Mr. Ranawaka as a potential threat in bidding for presidential candidacy. 
In politics, nothing is impossible. The next presidential election is almost four years away from now. Nobody can predict accurately the exact political landscape that will prevail in the country by that time. It will primarily be shaped by the performance of the present government. If the government performs well, the prospects for the opposition will be grim.  Otherwise, it will create openings for the opposition. Then only, it will be visible for people to see who is potent to be the presidential candidate of the opposition.   During the past presidential elections, there were many aspirants to be presidential candidates representing the two mainstream political forces of the country. But, the level of individual popularity and political strategizing as demanded by the situations enabled some of them to be chosen as candidates at the end leaving behind others in the race.   

President Gotabaya Rajapaksa and Mr. Premadasa became presidential candidates at the last elections because of their individual popularities within the political camps they represented. It is nothing but an artificial strategy that paved the way for former President Maithripala Sirisena to be selected as the candidate in 2010.  
It is unable to conclude who will become the SJB candidate in 2024 since it is a long time in politics. Nothing can be spoken of in definite terms in politics. At the same time, nothing can be ruled out either.