14 August 2021 12:00 am Views - 249
The World Health Organisation (WHO) expert group said yesterday that Sri Lanka is showing a rapid increase in the daily reported number of cases and deaths and the trends indicate that Sri Lanka could soon face a health crisis of unprecedented proportions.
The experts noted with great concern the current surge in COVID-19, nearly overwhelming the capacity of the health systems to provide the required adequate care for the people.
The experts recommend that their urgent priority is to SAVE LIVES. Sri Lanka will avert about 18,000 deaths by Jan 2022 if the level of stringency is immediately increased similar to May 2021 for 4 weeks. This will give the required time to accelerate vaccination and achieve the level of protection following the second dose of vaccines; as well as for the health system to recover from the overwhelming caseload.
Immediate actions are crucial and critical because it takes a few weeks before measures show a positive impact on the number of infections and hospital admissions. Any delay in implementation will lead to an increase in deaths and will require even more stringent measures with a longer duration to regain control. The WHO said at the 5th Independent Expert Group Meeting on the current COVID-19 situation and way forward, that bed occupancy rates at all levels of care facilities (over 85%) and ICU’s (over 90%) have increased progressively and are now in full capacity. Patients dependent on oxygen have significantly increased from 528 last week to 646 patients yesterday. If this trend continues, there is an inevitability of a serious shortage of oxygen supply and interruption of care.
Many areas of the country show a high PCR test positivity rate of over 20%.
A significant number of health workers are getting infected with consequent pressure for curtailment and closure of services. All indications are that the staff are exhausted and struggling. The Monash University, Australia in collaboration with WHO SEAR and Sri Lanka Country Office did some projections on notified cases and deaths using the MoH Epidemiology Unit data. The projections assumed that 50% will be fully vaccinated by end of August 2021.
At current levels of mobility restrictions, the number of cases would increase up to mid-September at 6,000 cases/ day, with deaths up to early October coming to a peak at around 220 deaths/day. ICU admission will peak at around 275 by early October with cumulative deaths around 30,000 by Jan 2022. But note that since we have not yet achieved the vaccine coverage assumed in the model, the projections are an under-estimate.