9 October 2024 12:47 pm Views - 328
Thomas Shugart, an analyst at the Center for a New American Security and a former US Navy submariner, first noticed in satellite imagery an unusual collection of four crane barges around what appeared to be a submarine either fully or partially submerged. The Wall Street Journal was the first to publish a story on this speculative event on September 26, with many other outlets rapidly jumping on the story.
The hybrid submarine in question was a first-of-class Type 041, also known as the Zhou class, which state-owned China State Shipbuilding Corporation was building in Wuhan. Satellite images showed crane barges were present from at least 12-17 June, as well as a boom net to capture oil spills. Such cranes would be necessary to lift a submarine off a riverbed. By the first week of July, the barges were gone, the submarine presumably salvaged, and activity seemed to have returned to normal. What attracted the most attention were allegations that this submarine featured a nuclear reactor. Importantly, there has been no release of radiation nor any evidence of a nuclear emergency response, so this was certainly not a Chernobyl-type incident.
An unnamed Pentagon spokesperson quoted by The Wall Street Journal article said the Type 041 is a "new class of nuclear submarine that is similar in size to navy conventionally powered submarines, but with a small nuclear reactor". They added, "As such, we do not know if the submarine reactor was fueled at the time of incident, or if it is going to be relocated to a known nuclear-certified facility for its initial fueling, such as Huludao shipyard, which has built all previous navy nuclear submarine classes."
The American spokesperson provocatively noted: "It's not surprising that the PLA Navy would try to conceal the fact that their new first-in-class nuclear-powered attack submarine sank pier-side."
China has indeed been silent on the incident, neither confirming nor denying it. When asked about the potential incident, a Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson said at a Beijing press conference on 27 September that he was unfamiliar with the topic. A Chinese embassy spokesperson in Washington also said, "We are not familiar with the situation you mentioned and currently have no information to provide."
Considerable caution is needed when discussing Chinese military programs, especially when China refuses to divulge information. It can be dangerous to speculate or make assertions based on fragmentary evidence or episodes. Indeed, the assertion by some media that this was a nuclear-powered submarine was a mischaracterization. There is no doubt that China has been developing the Type 041 SSP(N) type, as its existence is noted in the latest order of battle in the reputable Modern Chinese Maritime Forces listing. Authored by Manfred Meyer, this publication is the most comprehensive, unclassified, open-source Chinese data available on the PLAN. This document described the Zhou class as "a testbed for air-independent propulsion (AIP) with micro-nuclear reactor". The submarine has a tentative displacement of 4,000 tons and is 84m long.
Furthermore, there was previous evidence that China was developing such technology. Slides from a Chinese presentation by retired Rear Admiral Zhao Dengping of the PLAN in 2017 hinted that China was pursuing such a concept. Richard D. Fisher Jr., an American analyst with the International Assessment and Strategy Center, analyzed this information revealed at that time. He assessed: "Zhao...revealed the PLAN may be working on a novel low-power, low-pressure auxiliary nuclear power plant for electricity generation for fitting into conventional submarine designs, possibly succeeding the PLAN's current Stirling engine-based AIP systems."
Fisher elaborated: "One slide seems to suggest that the PLAN will continue to build smaller submarines around the size of current conventional powered designs, but that they will be modified to carry the new nuclear auxiliary power plant to give them endurance advantages of nuclear power."