28 May 2019 12:18 am Views - 938
It was advertised as a battle for India’s soul. Anti-incumbency fervour was said to be rampant. A previous rout of the BJP in a series of state elections a few months back was thought to be a precursor of something big to happen. Even a recession, no matter how remote for an economy growing at a not optimum, but still decent 7 per cent, was warned. Unemployment numbers, highest since the 70s was supposed to be a deal-breaker. Low crop prices were thought to have added to an already over-pouring of grassroots grievances.
All that made India’s chattering classes and foreign observers assume that the Modi juggernaut was finally brought under check. Commentators were routing for a weak coalition government, a bane in India’s economic and political life since the end of Congress dominance in the late 80s.
Then, cometh the election; the Indians voted with both hands to Narendra Modi and the BJP, which went to better its previous record in 2014. BJP obtained 303 seats in Loksabha, India’s lower house and with its constituent parties is set to dominate over 350 seats in 543 seats in Lok Sabha.
When the BJP single-handedly surpassed magic 272 number, the simple majority in Lakbaha in 2014, it was viewed as a one of stunt. Now it has bettered on its previous feat. The last time, a political party single-handedly won back to back majorities in Lok Sabha was in 1984. ( The Congress won that time).
However, then India - insulated, stagnated, opportunity less – is a world’s apart from India that voted for BJP during the last month in a marathon election. It is a confident world power; the fastest growing large economy, with a booming middle class. It is an emerging power that the West think as the only long term balancer of roaring China.
BJP’s sweeping across the Indian electorate, baring its Southern belt, also implies a remaking of Indian politics. Since the independence, well until the late 60s, it was the Indian National Congress that dominated the electoral map. In the decades since then, until 1989, the Congress’s dominance began to wane, though it still held on to power, with the help of regional allies.
BJP’s campaign and its leading functionaries were accused of demonizing Muslims and feeding into, and from Hindutva chauvinism
During that period, the regional parties, often based on cast and linguistic interests, strengthened their hold. That led to more often than not to weak coalition governments. Indian politics became fragmented and regionalized. Small political parties with a limited regional focus tend to influence domestic and foreign policy. Competing interests within motley coalition governments resulted in a period of policy paralysis. Things got worse lately courtesy the complex working relationship between Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and Congress Leader Sonia Gandhi, who pulled the strings from behind.
BJP’s landslide in 2014 brought an end to decades of political fragmentation and regionalization. Later its sweep in state elections implied that the electorate is shifting towards the Centre. Then the Congress and regional allies sprung a surprise in several backs to back state elections. To make matters worse, economic indicators turned out to be less than ideal. Political commentators bet on that India was returning to its old form. The regionalization of national politics was to make a comeback.
The election2019 took everyone by surprise. Regional parties performed poorly. In Uttara Pradesh, India’s largest state, the two regional rivals who banded together to defeat the BJP could not make a dent. ( BJP won 62 seats out of 80 seats there) Communists were routed. Rahul Gandhi himself lost his ancestral Amethi seat, though he won somewhere else.
BJP’s election sweep effectively signals a paradigm shift in Indian politics. Regionalization has been reversed and a process of centralization that began five years back is being consolidated. Despite economic woes and unfulfilled economy reforms, Indians have assumed Modi is better equipped to fix these problems than any other available alternative. Thus, a vote to BJP became more of a vote to Modi. A de facto presidentialization of Indian politics is in the making. Strong centralized leadership and immediate political capital of the election win, if properly used, would make easy to implement much needed and long-delayed reforms in labour, land, state banks and SOEs.
However, Mr Modi’s electoral landslide did not happen in a saintly backdrop. BJP’s campaign and its leading functionaries were accused of demonizing Muslims and feeding into, and from Hindutva chauvinism.
However, the vast swathe of the electorate was willing to overlook the peripheral ugliness in favour of a promise of greater prosperity and economic development.
The redoubling of Modi juggernaut also implies the growing public disenchantment with the liberal elites. Disenchantment revolves around their primary failure to transform the promise for economic prosperity into reality. Rightwing nationalism is feeding on that liberal failure.
This is a phenomenon unfolding in many parts of the world, in Europe, Donald Trump’s America, Brazil, Argentina, and South Asia itself.
Sheik Hasina, the prime minister of Bangladesh, who is reigning over an economy growing at 8 per cent over a decade is the other torchbearer in the region of this transformation.
This is bound to happen in Sri Lanka. The popular discontent is exacerbated by the perception over that the government had failed to prevent the Easter Sunday Bombing. However, permissive conditions that led to an incoming ethno-nationalistic backlash is in the making over years. Five years long inertia in the economy, which has grown only marginally over the last five years had a major delegitimizing effect. The economic impact of the bombing would make things worse, and people angrier.
It is no brainer who will be the beneficiary of rising popular discontent and the preference for a strong government. In the absence of liberal personalities to address existential economic and security challenges, Sri Lankan voters could well settle for a strongman.
Five- six months before the presidential election is not long enough to reverse the trend. However, commonsensical approach to challenges may help mitigate it. Though economic inertial cannot be wished away all of a sudden, it is still worth a try. On the other hand, leave aside the pretence, a populist right-wing nationalist take over of political power is not altogether bad, if the new leaders could kick start economy and double down on infrastructure development. Many Sri Lankan voters would fall for that dispassionate choice.
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