Passenger demand up 21.5% in February: IATA

The International Air Transport Association (IATA) released data for February 2024 global passenger demand, showing a rise of 21.5 percent. 
Total demand, measured in revenue passenger kilometres (RPKs), was up 21.5 percent compared to February 2023. 

Total capacity, measured in available seat kilometres (ASK), was up 18.7 percent year-on-year (YoY). The February load factor was 80.6 percent (+1.9ppt compared to February 2023). 
International demand rose 26.3 percent compared to February 2023; capacity was up 25.5 percent YoY and the load factor improved to 79.3 percent (+0.5ppt on February 2023). 

Domestic demand rose 15.0 percent compared to February 2023; capacity was up 9.4 percent YoY and the load factor was 82.6 percent (+4.0ppt compared to February 2023).
Note that February 2024 was a leap year with one extra day compared to February 2023. This slightly exaggerates growth in both demand and capacity to the positive.

“The strong start to 2024 continued in February, with all markets except North America reporting double-digit growth in passenger traffic. There is good reason to be optimistic about the industry’s prospects in 2024 as airlines accelerate investments in decarbonisation and passenger demand shows resilience in the face of geopolitical and economic uncertainties.

It is critical that politicians resist the temptation of cash grabs with new taxes that could destabilise this positive trajectory and make travel more expensive. In particular, Europe is a worry as it seems determined to lock in its sluggish economic recovery with uncompetitive tax proposals,” said IATA Director General Willie Walsh.
All regions showed double-digit growth for international passenger markets in February 2024 compared to February 2023. For the first time, demand for international services exceeded pre-pandemic levels (+0.9 percent compared to February 2019). This, however, is skewed by February 2024 being a leap-year with an extra day compared to February 2023.

• Asia-Pacific airlines saw a 53.2 percent YoY increase in demand. Capacity increased 52.1 percent YoY and the load factor rose to 84.9 percent (+0.6ppt compared to February 2023), the highest among all regions.
• European carriers saw a 15.9 percent YoY increase in demand. Capacity increased 16.0 percent YoY and the load factor was 74.7 percent (flat compared to February 2023).
• Middle Eastern airlines saw a 19.7 percent YoY increase in demand. Capacity increased 19.1 percent YoY and the load factor rose to 80.8 percent (+0.4ppt compared to February 2023).
• North American carriers saw a 16.0 percent YoY increase in demand. Capacity increased 17.6 percent YoY and the load factor fell to 77.7 percent (-1.1ppt compared to February 2023).
• Latin American airlines saw a 21.0 percent YoY increase in demand. Capacity climbed 18.6 percent YoY. The load factor rose to 84.2 percent (+1.7ppt compared to February 2023).
• African airlines saw a 20.7 percent YoY increase in demand. Capacity was up 22.1 percent YoY. The load factor fell to 74.0 percent (-0.8ppt compared to February 2023).

Air cargo demand maintains double-digit growth in February

The International Air Transport Association (IATA) released data for February 2024 global air cargo markets, showing continuing strong annual growth in demand.
Total demand, measured in cargo tonne-kilometres (CTKs*), rose by 11.9 percent, compared to February 2023 levels (12.4 percent for international operations). This is the third consecutive month of double-digit year-on-year (YoY) demand growth.

Capacity, measured in available cargo tonne-kilometres (ACTKs), increased by 13.4 percent compared to February 2023 (16.0 percent for international operations). This was largely related to the increase in international belly capacity accompanying growth in passenger markets (29.5 percent YoY increase), which far exceeded international capacity on freighters (3.2 percent YoY increase).

“February’s demand growth of 11.9 percent far outpaced the 0.9 percent expansion in cross-border trade. This strong start for 2024 could see demand surpass the exceptionally high levels of early 2022. It also shows air cargo’s strong resilience in the face of continuing political and economic uncertainties,” said IATA Director General Willie Walsh.
Several factors in the operating environment should be noted:

• Global cross-border trade increased by 0.9 percent in January.
• In February, the manufacturing output Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) climbed to 51.2, indicating expansion. The new export orders PMI also rose to 49.4, remaining slightly below the 50 threshold that would indicate growth.
• February YoY inflation dropped to 2.8 percent in the EU while rising to 2.8 percent and 3.2 percent in Japan and the US, respectively. After four months of deflation, China reported a 0.7 percent increase in inflation YoY—a positive development amid concerns over China’s economic slowdown.

February regional performance

• Asia-Pacific airlines saw 11.9 percent year-on-year (YoY) demand growth for air cargo in February. This was a significant decrease compared to January’s 24.3 percent YoY growth, likely related to slowing activity after the Lunar New Year celebrations. Capacity increased by 23.1 percent YoY as belly capacity came online with recovery in the passenger business.
• North American carriers saw 4.2 percent YoY demand growth for air cargo in February—the weakest among all regions. Demand on the North America–Europe trade lane grew by 5.2 percent YoY while Asia–North America grew by 3.9 percent YoY.  February capacity increased by 1.9 percent YoY.
• European carriers saw 14.6 percent YoY demand growth for air cargo in February. Intra-European air cargo rose by 24.5 percent YoY —the strongest performance in almost three years. Europe – Middle East routes saw demand grow by 39.3 percent YoY, while Europe – North America expanded by 5.2 percent YoY. February capacity increased 13.2 percent YoY.
• Middle Eastern carriers saw 20.9 percent YoY demand growth for air cargo in February.  The Middle East–Europe market was the strongest performing with +39.3 percent growth, far ahead of Middle East-Asia which grew by 21.9 percent YoY. February capacity increased 16.2 percent YoY.
• Latin American carriers saw 13.7 percent YoY demand growth for air cargo in February.  Capacity increased 8.9 percent YoY.
• African airlines saw 22.0 percent YoY demand growth for air cargo in February—the strongest among all regions. The intra-Africa trade lane showed 42.3 percent YoY growth. February capacity increased by 28.2 percent YoY.