Dr. Subrahmanyam Jaishankar, India's External Affairs Minister, recently concluded a significant visit to Sri Lanka. This visit is seen as a precursor to Prime Minister Narendra Modi's planned visit, underscoring the strategic and diplomatic importance India places on its relationship with the island nation. The visit holds particular significance as both countries navigate complex geopolitical landscapes and domestic political pressures.

Objectives of the visit 

Dr. Jaishankar's visit had several key objectives:

1. Preparation for PM Modi's Visit: Ensuring that all diplomatic and logistical aspects are in place for Prime Minister Modi's forthcoming visit.

2. Strengthening Bilateral Ties: Reaffirming India's commitment to enhancing bilateral relations through various developmental projects and cooperation in multiple sectors.

3. Addressing Core Issues: Focusing on critical issues such as the fishermen dispute, the implementation of the 13th Amendment (13A), and the status of India-funded projects in Sri Lanka.

India-funded projects 

India has been a significant development partner for Sri Lanka, funding numerous projects aimed at boosting the island's infrastructure and socio-economic fabric. During Dr. Jaishankar's visit, discussions on accelerating these projects were paramount.

1. Infrastructure Development: India has invested in several infrastructure projects, including the Jaffna Cultural Centre, housing projects, and the renovation of the Kankesanthurai Harbour. These projects are pivotal for economic development in the Northern and Eastern provinces, areas with significant Tamil populations.

2. Energy Cooperation: Talks also included enhancing cooperation in the energy sector, particularly in renewable energy projects. India is keen on supporting Sri Lanka's efforts to diversify its energy sources and reduce reliance on fossil fuels.

3. Healthcare and Education: India's contributions to Sri Lanka's healthcare and educational infrastructure were highlighted. This includes the establishment of hospitals, providing scholarships, and capacity-building initiatives for Sri Lankan students and professionals.

The successful completion and operationalization of these projects are seen as vital for strengthening the economic linkages and fostering goodwill between the two nations.

The Fishermen issue 

One of the persistent and contentious issues between India and Sri Lanka is the fishermen dispute. Indian fishermen, primarily from Tamil Nadu, often stray into Sri Lankan waters, leading to arrests and conflicts with Sri Lankan authorities.

1. Maritime Boundary Conflicts: The overlapping territorial waters in the Palk Strait and Gulf of Mannar have led to frequent clashes. Sri Lankan fishermen accuse their Indian counterparts of illegal poaching and using destructive fishing practices like bottom trawling, which devastates marine ecosystems.

2. Humanitarian Concerns: The arrest and imprisonment of fishermen are significant humanitarian concerns. Families on both sides suffer due to the loss of their primary breadwinners, leading to heightened tensions.

3. Diplomatic Efforts: Dr. Jaishankar emphasized the need for a sustainable solution to the fishermen issue. Proposals included setting up a joint working group, enhancing surveillance, and promoting deep-sea fishing among Indian fishermen to reduce their dependence on nearshore waters.

Resolving this issue is crucial not only for bilateral relations but also for maintaining peace and stability in the region.

The 13A amendment

The 13th Amendment (13A) to the Sri Lankan Constitution, which emerged from the Indo-Sri Lanka Accord of 1987, mandates the devolution of powers to the provincial councils. However, its full implementation has been a contentious issue in Sri Lanka, especially concerning the Tamil minority.

1. Tamil Aspirations: The 13A is seen as a critical step towards addressing the political aspirations of the Tamil population in Sri Lanka. Full implementation would grant significant autonomy to the Northern and Eastern provinces, where Tamils are predominant.

2. Political Resistance: Successive Sri Lankan governments have been reluctant to fully implement the 13A, citing concerns over national unity and sovereignty. This reluctance has led to frustrations among Tamil political leaders and their constituents.

3. India's Stance: India has consistently advocated for the full implementation of the 13A, viewing it as essential for ensuring justice, equality, and lasting peace in Sri Lanka. Dr. Jaishankar reiterated this stance during his visit, urging the Sri Lankan government to make meaningful progress on this front.

The 13A remains a litmus test for Sri Lanka's commitment to ethnic reconciliation and political inclusiveness, with India playing a supportive but firm role.

Influence of ethnic minorities on bilateral relations

The influence of ethnic minorities plays a crucial role in shaping India-Sri Lanka bilateral relations. On the eve of Indian national elections, Prime Minister Narendra Modi criticized the Congress party for allegedly handing over Katchatheevu Island to Sri Lanka. Raising this issue during the election period is seen as a strategic move to gain support in Tamil Nadu. Dr. S. Jaishankar's meeting with an eight-member delegation of Tamil leaders further highlighted India's focus on Tamil issues in Sri Lanka. 

The Indian government aims to maintain its influence over Sri Lanka, particularly concerning Tamil concerns, to ensure the welfare of the Tamil minority in Sri Lanka and to strengthen political support domestically in Tamil Nadu.

Implications of PM Modi's upcoming visit  

Prime Minister Modi's forthcoming visit to Sri Lanka, set against the backdrop of Dr. Jaishankar's preparatory trip, holds significant implications for both nations, especially on the eve of elections in India.

1. Bilateral Relations: Modi's visit aims to solidify the strategic partnership between India and Sri Lanka. This includes reinforcing commitments to ongoing projects and possibly announcing new initiatives.

2. Geopolitical Dynamics: With China's growing influence in Sri Lanka, Modi's visit underscores India's intent to maintain its strategic foothold in the island nation. This is crucial for India's security interests in the Indian Ocean region.

3. Domestic Political Context: In the context of the upcoming Indian elections, Modi's visit is likely to resonate with the Tamil population in India, particularly in Tamil Nadu. Demonstrating India's commitment to addressing issues affecting Tamils in Sri Lanka could garner political support.

In conclusion, Dr. S. Jaishankar's visit to Sri Lanka has set the stage for a significant chapter in India-Sri Lanka relations. By addressing critical issues such as India-funded projects, the fishermen dispute, and the 13A amendment, the visit underscored India's commitment to a stable, prosperous, and inclusive Sri Lanka. As Prime Minister Modi prepares for his visit, the bilateral relationship stands at a crucial juncture, with potential far-reaching implications for regional stability and domestic political landscapes in both countries.