Pakistan’s population surge: A looming crisis for economy and society

Pakistan is facing a critical challenge as its population continues to surge, exacerbating existing economic difficulties. Recent data reveals that the country's population has skyrocketed from 207.68 million in 2017 to 241.49 million in 2023, marking one of the highest growth rates globally at 2.55 percent. If current trends continue, Pakistan’s population could exceed a staggering 400 million by 2050, raising alarms about its potential impact on the nation’s future.

This rapid population increase poses significant risks, threatening to destabilize the economy, strain environmental resources, and push the country back into a state of darkness. A recent editorial titled "Population Calamity" warned that unchecked population growth would have far-reaching implications for both the economy and society, placing enormous pressure on food security, socio-economic infrastructure, and public services. The urgent need for action cannot be overstated; the editorial emphasized that Pakistan must work swiftly to address the issue of rising population numbers.

While having a large youth demographic is often considered an asset, the Pakistani administration has struggled to effectively harness this potential. Instead of capitalizing on this opportunity, rising poverty and escalating crime rates in urban areas such as Karachi may drive younger generations toward further underdevelopment. A recent editorial in The Express Tribune underscored this concern, stating, "Without adequate investments in education, healthcare, and job creation, the country risks facing severe socio-economic repercussions in the coming years." 

One of the key areas identified for intervention is women’s education. Educating women has been shown to play a critical role in lowering fertility rates and enhancing economic stability. Empowering women through education not only contributes to family planning but also promotes a more robust economy. With a growing population, the pressure on resources intensifies, leading to water scarcity, energy shortages, and food insecurity. The Express Tribune cautioned that if these challenges are left unaddressed, they could culminate in widespread poverty and social unrest.

To mitigate these risks, the Pakistani government must prioritize family planning measures and provide education related to fertility. Both federal and provincial governments need to implement comprehensive family planning initiatives aimed at curbing the rapid population growth. Furthermore, it is essential for opposition parties and religious leaders to actively participate in addressing this pressing issue. A united front is crucial to effectively tackle the population crisis.

The challenge of curbing the population growth rate requires coordinated efforts from all sectors of society. Government leaders must engage with potential allies and stakeholders to create a comprehensive strategy to address this crisis. Failing to act promptly could lead to an existential crisis for the nation in the future.

According to Dr. Zafar Khan Safdar, a political scientist and academic, Pakistan's inability to replicate the industrial transitions seen in other nations stems from its failure to modernize agriculture and develop a solid industrial base. In an article earlier this year in Pakistan Today, he argued that high population growth is a significant driver of poverty, environmental degradation, and increasing debt levels. He stated, "In Pakistan, this high-rate population growth is a cause for poverty, environmental degradation, and high debt levels."

Dr. Safdar highlighted the need for Pakistan to control its population explosion for various reasons, including socio-religious problems that hamper development efforts. He suggested that to lessen the exclusion of marginalized communities from opportunities, social and economic policies must be integrated with population policies. This integration would require increased investment in skills, health, education, and export-driven growth. The government should also promote literacy, contraception, and youth engagement in national issues.

Currently, Pakistan lacks a dedicated ministry to tackle these population issues. Instead, the National Trust for Population Welfare (NATPOW), which operates under the Ministry of National Health Services, is the primary entity addressing these challenges. Unfortunately, NATPOW's effectiveness is severely hampered by insufficient budgetary allocations, minimal assigned targets, and a weak organizational structure. Consequently, its performance falls far below what is required. Both federal and provincial governments must prioritize activating and engaging population departments and adopting official programs aimed at building public awareness about the need to reduce birth rates, ensuring that population growth aligns with the country’s evolving economic landscape.

In contrast, India, now the world's most populous nation, has seen its growth rate decline sharply to 0.8 percent. The Indian government perceives its young population as an asset that can help transform the nation's future. Strong development policies implemented by Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government have been pivotal in shaping a brighter future for India's youth. 

Pakistan has much to learn from India's experience. The urgent need to defuse its own population bomb requires immediate corrective measures to prevent further damage. The only viable path forward is for Pakistan to adopt effective family planning strategies and launch large-scale educational campaigns from the grassroots level. 

The stakes are high, and the time for action is now. Addressing the population crisis is essential for the nation's long-term stability and prosperity. Without decisive action, Pakistan risks plunging into deeper chaos and economic turmoil, with the implications reverberating across generations. The future of the nation hinges on the ability to manage population growth in a sustainable and responsible manner, ensuring that all citizens have the opportunity to thrive.