For Bangladeshi Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus, a second Trump presidency could herald a complex and challenging new era. The outgoing Biden administration had a significant impact on US-Bangladesh relations, often focused on democratic practices in Bangladesh. Under Biden, the US was critical of Sheikh Hasina's government, particularly regarding concerns over democracy and human rights. The Biden administration expressed deep reservations about the fairness of elections in Bangladesh, imposing visa restrictions on Bangladeshi officials and politicians in response to these issues. Additionally, Biden's team criticized Hasina for alleged “autocratic tendencies” and imposed sanctions on top leaders of Bangladesh's Rapid Action Battalion (RAB) over human rights abuses. This culminated in Hasina's eventual ouster from power.

Dr. Muhammad Yunus, Bangladesh's Chief Adviser, is a well-known figure in the US Democratic political establishment. The Biden administration was instrumental in the political developments that led to Hasina’s fall, and there is widespread speculation that the Democratic government under Joe Biden played a key role in installing Yunus as the head of Bangladesh’s interim government. Yunus, a Nobel Peace Prize laureate, has cultivated close relationships with prominent figures in the US Democratic Party, including Joe Biden, Barack Obama, and Bill Clinton. For instance, Yunus recently met with Biden and former President Clinton during the UN’s annual summit, where they expressed their support for him as Bangladesh's interim leader. Clinton and Yunus have had a long-standing friendship dating back to the 1980s when Clinton, then governor of Arkansas, invited Yunus to share his pioneering approach to poverty alleviation through small loans. Over the years, Clinton has consistently praised Yunus for his work in improving the lives of ordinary people. President Obama also honored Yunus with the US Presidential Medal of Freedom.

Yunus’s close connections with these influential Democratic leaders underscore how he was seen as a potential replacement for Hasina, with the Biden administration playing a key role in fostering the conditions that led to Bangladesh's political upheaval.

By removing Sheikh Hasina and the Awami League from power, the Biden administration effectively disrupted India’s carefully cultivated relationship with Bangladesh, paving the way for a potentially more strained relationship under Yunus’s leadership. Once Dr. Yunus took office, the Biden administration quickly extended its full support to his government, offering both direct and indirect assistance, a move that was echoed by Western allies and international organizations.

However, with the powerful return of Donald Trump as the 47th President of the United States, Yunus’s position may become more precarious. Under a Republican government led by Trump, Yunus will not enjoy the same level of favor or support from Washington. The shift from a Democratic to a Republican administration could signal a dramatic change in the trajectory of US-Bangladesh relations, especially as Yunus no longer has the backing of his Democratic political allies.

Without the support of the Biden administration, Yunus is likely to face increasing domestic pressure. His government has struggled to establish a truly fair and inclusive political system, and its exclusion of the Awami League has raised concerns about its legitimacy. Critics argue that Yunus’s administration has failed to adequately represent all political factions and civil society groups, which further undermines its claim to democratic legitimacy. 

Amid rising discontent, calls for the re-establishment of a neutral caretaker government have grown louder in Bangladesh. These calls are driven by concerns over the fairness and transparency of recent elections, with many arguing that a caretaker government would ensure a level playing field for all political parties. The caretaker government system, which was abolished in 2011, had previously been used to oversee elections and the peaceful transfer of power. The current political climate in Bangladesh has revived debates about restoring this system to rebuild public trust in the electoral process.

Compounding the situation, there are complaints about the slow pace of necessary reforms, particularly in areas such as electoral processes and human rights. The interim Yunus government has struggled to manage state affairs and address the constitutional vacuum left by the previous administration. Under these circumstances, Yunus’s hold on power may weaken, and domestic pressures will likely mount for the government to implement reforms and hold early elections. But with the Republican administration in power in Washington, Yunus can expect little external support.

Trump’s previous presidency marked a departure from traditional US foreign policy, characterized by an “America First” approach that prioritized domestic concerns over international engagements. Trump has been openly critical of the interventionist foreign policies of previous US administrations. Under his leadership, issues like democracy in Bangladesh and the fate of Yunus are unlikely to be high on the US agenda. Furthermore, given Trump’s strong personal relationship with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, it’s likely that US policy toward South Asia will be increasingly aligned with India’s interests. For the Republicans, Bangladesh is not a central focus in US foreign policy, and thus Yunus’s position will not be a priority.

Trump’s foreign policy is likely to prioritize larger geopolitical issues, such as relations with Russia, China, NATO, and India. These are the areas where any significant US policy shifts could have an impact. Another consideration is the potential reduction in US funding to Bangladesh. The United States has historically been one of Bangladesh’s top trade partners and a major source of foreign direct investment (FDI), as well as a key donor for humanitarian issues, such as public health and the Rohingya refugee crisis. However, if Trump follows through on his "America First" mantra and scales back international aid in favor of domestic economic concerns, it could directly affect Bangladesh.

In short, under a Trump administration, US policy toward Bangladesh is likely to undergo a recalibration, with a stronger emphasis on economic and strategic priorities. The approach will likely become more transactional, focusing on immediate and tangible benefits for the United States. Yunus, who has a much closer relationship with Democratic leaders than with Republicans, may find it more difficult to navigate the shifting political landscape.

Yunus’s past criticism of Trump further complicates matters. In 2016, after Trump’s election victory, Yunus described it as “a solar eclipse…black days, which must not destroy us and suck our spirit,” expressing deep dismay at Trump’s win. He even stated, “Trump’s win has hit us so hard that this morning I could hardly speak.” If Trump has not forgotten these remarks, they could influence US-Bangladesh relations, further complicating Yunus’s position in the future.

Thus, the return of Trump to the White House is likely to create a more challenging environment for Yunus, both domestically and internationally, as US priorities shift under a Republican administration.