The world is on edge as it awaits an official announcement of the next President of the United States(US). Results are still pending as mail-in ballots are being counted, with the rival Biden-Harris and Trump-Pence camps digging their heals in and refusing to concede. Stock and prediction markets have already begun forecasting what’s in store for the next four years. Predictions rose from a 59% to 65% in favour of Democratic Party candidate former Vice President Joe Biden.

Meanwhile, Republican incumbent President Donald Trump is trying to block the counting of mail-in ballots on unfounded charges they are fraudulent, and wants the Supreme Court that largely favours him to intervene. Tensions are running high on both sides, heightening concerns that post-election violence may erupt in an already volatile political environment.   
To better understand what’s going on, it’s important to first know that US presidents are not chosen by a simple majority, but through the Electoral College.  

Electoral College

Article II of the US Constitution allows each of the 50 states to choose electors to elect a President and Vice President. The number of electors in each state matches the number of representatives it has in the Congress and Senate. Electors have the discretion to choose their candidates, but in practice they vote for the candidates who win the popular vote in their states. This body of electors which elects the President and Vice President is known as the Electoral College. There are 538 such electors, and the threshold to elect the President and Vice President is 270 Electoral College votes.

Only two states, Maine and Nebraska, divide their Electoral College votes in proportion to votes won by each candidate. So historically, presidential campaigns have targeted ‘swing states’, where the vote could go either way, rather than trying to attract voters nationally. Other countries with Electoral College systems include Burundi, Pakistan, Estonia, India, Madagascar, Myanmar, Trinidad and Tobago and Vanuatu.  

Popular vote 

The popular vote is the total votes cast for each candidate nationally. But according to the US Constitution, a President is elected by the Electoral College, not directly by the people. Winning a majority of votes doesn’t guarantee a candidate can win the presidency. In 2016, Hilary Clinton won the popular count by almost 3 million votes, but Trump became president. Presidents John Quincy Adams (1824), Rutherford Hayes (1876), Benjamin Harrison (1888) and George W. Bush (2000) were also elected sans the popular vote.   

Early voting 

The New York Times reported voters returned nearly 64 million mail-in ballots before Election Day. This was a pandemic-driven record that complicated the vote count, but could also reshape US elections in future. There are potential legal challenges in different states regarding the counting of mail-in ballots. For example, in Pennsylvania, considered a Trump stronghold, the Trump campaign reportedly blocked counties from processing votes ahead of the election.   

States like Colorado, Washington, Oregon, Hawaii and Utah have largely been using the mail-in voting even before the pandemic. One advantage of mail-in voting is its convenience for people with inflexible work schedules. But there are many downsides to mail-in voting as well. In every election votes go uncounted due to machine malfunction and other technical issues. Research shows that such votes – known as the under-count – are higher with mail-in ballots. Part of the under-count this year (number yet to be determined) comprises voters who applied for absentee ballots but did not receive them.   
Although President Trump claimed postal voting was dangerous and a fraud, a 2017 study by the Brennan Centre for Justice found the rate of overall voting fraud in the US at less than 0.0009%.

Ballot harvesting 

Ballot collection is legal in 26 states. This is when one person submits ballots completed on behalf of voters who are old or unwell. There are limits on how many ballots one person can deliver. For example, in Minnesota, a third party can collect only three ballot papers. However, when this is done on a larger scale in a potentially illegal manner, it is known as 
‘ballot harvesting’.   

Final results 

With results delayed beyond November 3, there is both growing interest and tension regarding the final tally. With Biden leading the race, there are several matters to consider. On Wednesday, the Trump camp not only declared overall victory, but also filed a case in the battleground state of Pennsylvania seeking to stop the counting of remaining ballots there. Many described this as absurd and anti-democratic. With several states yet to announce final results, the overall results could be delayed till November 6 or beyond. Political analysts warn a court battle would only further hamper unity among a polarised electorate.   

If a candidate is not satisfied with the results, a recount could be demanded, like in the 2000 election when Democratic candidate Al Gore argued his narrow loss in Florida should be recounted.The Supreme Court took 36 days to decide against a recount, and ruled in favour of Republican George W. Bush. He, like Trump, had lost the popular vote.  
But regardless of whether it’s Biden-Harris or Trump-Pence, the rest of the world will have to contend with continued US moves to expand its global influence politically, militarily and economically.