Setback in Sino-Indian relations due to fresh territorial and water disputes

China also announced that it would build a gigantic dam, the biggest in the world, on the Yarlung Zangbo river in Tibet, which flows into Arunachal Pradesh and Assam in India and then into Bangladesh

Last year, regional rivals India and China reached an agreement on border patrolling, reducing tension in the Eastern Ladakh sector. Prior to that in July, the Indian government’s Economic Survey said that “to boost Indian manufacturing and plug India into the global supply chain, it is inevitable that India plugs itself into China’s supply chain. Whether we do so by relying solely on imports or partially through Chinese investments is a choice that India has to make.” 

The border détente and the idea to allow Chinese investments were interpreted as early signs of a rapprochement between the two countries that were involved in an interminable border dispute and relentless jostling for supremacy in South Asia.   

But as 2025 dawned, cracks appeared in the relationship. China decided to form two “counties” called He’an and Hekang, in the Xinjiang province, parts of which fell in the Indian territory of Ladakh. India conveyed its protest to China about the establishment of these counties on its territory. For India this was yet another case of China’s cartographic aggression. China had earlier given its own names to various places in the Indian State of Arunachal Pradesh which it claims is “Southern Tibet” and, therefore, a part of China.

Controversial Dam 

China also announced that it would build a gigantic dam, the biggest in the world, on the Yarlung Zangbo river in Tibet, which flows into Arunachal Pradesh and Assam in India and then into Bangladesh. The Yarlung Zangbo of Tibet becomes Brahmaputra in India and Jamuna in Bangladesh. 

China’s dam project is seen in India as threatening the livelihood of people in Arunachal Pradesh and Assam whose farmers depend on assured flows in the Brahmaputra. It is feared that China could weaponise water from the dam by withholding or releasing water in ways that could harm these Indian States. Similarly, Bangladeshi farmers will be affected by changes in the flow in the Jamuna due to manipulations at the dam in Tibet.      

The dam, which will cost USD 137 billion, is located on the lower reaches of the Yarlung Zangbo river at the U-bend in Mêdog Town in Tibet. It will have the capacity to generate 300 billion kilowatt-hours of electricity annually. China says that the project is expected to boost engineering industries and create employment in Tibet. But given the low industrialisation in Tibet, the bulk of the beneficiaries will be in the already industrialised parts of China east of Tibet.

India Protests 

Disturbed about the possible deleterious effects of the dam, the Indian External Affairs spokesperson Randhir Jaiswal said last Friday:  “As a lower riparian state with established user rights to the waters of the river, we have consistently expressed, through expert-level and diplomatic channels, our views and concerns to the Chinese side over mega projects on rivers in their territory. There is a need for transparency and consultation with downstream countries. The Chinese side has been urged to ensure that the interests of downstream states of the Brahmaputra are not harmed by activities in upstream areas. We will continue to monitor and take necessary measures to protect our interests.”

In response, China’s foreign ministry spokesperson, Mao Ning, said that China had always been responsible for the development of cross-border rivers and the hydropower development in Tibet had been studied in an in-depth way for decades and safeguard measures had been taken for the security of the project. She added that China will continue to maintain communication with countries in the lower reaches through existing channels and step up international cooperation on disaster prevention and relief.

Indian commentators point out that there is an India-China Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) that requires China to provide hydrological information on the Brahmaputra River during monsoon season from May 15th to October 15th each year. Data includes water level, discharge, and rainfall. The data helps India with flood control and disaster mitigation. The MoU was renewed in 2008, 2013, and 2018, but expired on June 5th, 2023. The two countries are currently renewing the MoU through diplomatic channels.

Differing Views

Be that as it may, views differ on the impact of the dam on India. The general Indian nationalist opinion is that it will be disadvantageous and harmful to India both economically and strategically. The matter was reportedly raised with the US National Security Advisor by his Indian counterpart Ajit Doval in their meetings in New Delhi on January 5th and 6th. 

News reports said that on March 1st, 2012, the Brahmaputra had run completely dry at Pasighat in Arunachal Pradesh. But after a few hours, Pasighat got inundated. It indicated that water in the upper reaches was first released and then suddenly slammed shut at a dam in Tibet. 

Nilanjan Ghosh of the Observer Research Foundation recalled that in 2020, there was an increase in turbidity and blackening of the water in the Tsiang River, as the Yarlung Tsangpo is called in Arunachal Pradesh. There was also a temporary stoppage of data sharing by China over the high season flows during the 2020 Doklam military standoff between China and India, Hence the need for an agreement and strict adherence to it. 

Geologists point out that the Chinese dam projects are very close to the geological fault line where the Indian Plate collides with the Eurasian Plate. The area is therefore prone to earthquakes. Indeed, a study conducted by the China Earthquake Administration found that in the six years after the construction of the giant “Three Gorge Dam” over the Yangtze River in the Hubei province in 2003, there were 3,429 earthquakes along the reservoir. But between 2000 and 2003, before the dam was constructed, there were only 94 earthquakes. Eighty large cracks appeared on the Three Gorges Dam’s concrete face just days after the reservoir was filled for the first time in 2003. 

These raised concerns about the dam’s safety. In 1975, 62 dams had collapsed in Henan due to heavy downpours during a typhoon. That event killed more than 26,000 people by the official count – though other estimates were several times higher.

Contrary View

However, some experts on water resources management feel that the Chinese dam will not make a difference to Assam because the water in the Brahmaputra is not so much from Tibet but from tributaries and rainfall on the Indian side. The tributaries which contribute significantly to the Brahmaputra are Luhit, Dibang, and Dihang, near Sadiya in the Indian state of Assam.

The rainfall on the Tibet side is less than on the Assam side. A large part of the Tibetan component of the basin, i.e. the longer stretch of the Yarlung Zangbo river is located in the rain-shadow north of the Himalaya, and is therefore a recipient of much less rainfall as compared to the south.  

While the average annual precipitation in the trans-Himalaya is around 300 mm, the average annual precipitation (that includes mainly rainfall) touches 3,000 mm in the south. The foothills are frequently fed by anomalous precipitation of a magnitude that is capable of causing great floods, experts note.  

While the peak flows at Nuxia and Tsela Dzong measuring stations at the great bend in the Tibetan plateau are about 5,000 and 10,000 cubic metres per second (cumecs), the peak flow at Guwahati in Assam is approximately 55,000 cumecs. The lean season flow in Nuxia is in the range of 300-500 cumecs, while the lean flow at Pasighat in India is to the tune of 2,000-plus cumecs, the one at Guwahati is around 4000-plus cumecs.  According to Dr. Nilanjan Ghosh, Director at the Observer Research Foundation (ORF) in India, given the precipitation, run-off and sediment flow regimes, it is unlikely that any intervention on the Yarlung Zangbo in Tibet by China will cause any substantial harm for downstream economies in India and Bangladesh.