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2024 Is Election Year, It is No Win -Win Situation - EDITORIAL
The next year for us Lankan’s is an election year. Whom are we going to elect as President? Our country is going through one of the most traumatic periods in its history. Irrespective of race, religion or ethnicity, large sections of the public have been pushed into poverty.
Figures from the Department of Census and Statistics indicate that the unemployment rate in Sri Lanka increased to 5.20 percent in the second quarter of 2023 from 4.70 percent in the first quarter of the same year. Today, the basic monthly wage stands at between Rs. 40,000 to Rs 50,000; the cost of feeding a family of four - father, mother and two children is around Rs. 120,000 per month. This leaves almost no cash for travel, children’s education, clothes or medical needs.
Despite the common problems we (Lankan’s) face, the reality is that we are basically three nations in one geographical location. Each one looking on the other with suspicion. Not surprisingly, with our country situated at the centre of major trade routes, it has become central to the geopolitical interests of three major powers; India – our immediate neighbour, China - a growing Asian super power, and the US - the aging imperial power.
That they will seek to use divisions among us to their benefit is only natural.
The 2024 election is therefore not going to be about whom we Lankan’s feel will be the most suited person to fill the position of the Presidency. Media reports show all three major powers reaching out not only to the different political aspirants but also making forays into different parts of our country.
So this election is not going to be only about solving Lanka’s economic problems. Just a month ago we were regaled with photos of a particular local ‘Marxist’ political party leader speaking on a platform draped with US and Lankan flags... O tempora, o mores!
Both Indian and Chinese leaders are vying with each other visiting particular areas of this country, offering gifts to people of those areas in addition to offering all manner of help to overcome our foreign debt. But, no one has offered to write off our foreign debt.
The US ambassador is often seen participating in environmental campaigns, helping clear plastic waste from our beaches. Never mind that the US is the world’s biggest polluter. It also offers unstinting support to Israel’s genocidal campaign in Palestine. Yet while defending Israel’ genocidal policies, the US advises our government against the suppression of locals protesting the ever-increasing economic burdens.
It is in this milleau that the 2024 Presidential and Parliamentary Elections will be held. Given the number of political parties and individuals throwing in their hats to contest the election, the next Presidential Poll is bound to be tight.
Again, the terms of the economic bailout with the IMF make it clear that none of the contenders for office will - as has been usual during earlier election campaigns - promise cheap goods, services and other sops this time around.
In turn, it also means the Presidential candidates will need to woo minority communities if they are to cross the 50 + 1 threshold needed for victory at the Presidential Election. This is one of the few plus points which arose in the aftermath of the economic meltdown and financial crisis.
Three main contenders have emerged in surveys carried out by different organisations. They are President Wickremesinghe of the UNP; JVP/NPP leader, A.K. Dissanayake and S. Premadasa of the SJB. Straw polls show Dissanayake of the JVP/NPP leading the three main contenders.
President Wickremasinghe however has to his credit achievements none could dispute, such as overcoming the worst of the economic woes our people ever faced. He was also able to formulate agreements with nations and organisations enabling our country to restructure the repayment of our foreign debt. Whether this is a plus or not, only time will tell. However, the fact is, the UNP leader has the confidence of India, China, the US and the IMF. He also has the confidence of the Tamil community.
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