Late last week, the post-Hasina Interim Government of Bangladesh led by Nobel Laureate Prof. Muhammad Yunus crossed the first 100 days of its existence. But the event passed with little or no fanfare.

The reason for the sombre mood was that the government is yet to settle down with a well-structured decision-making and delivery mechanism to match the sky-high expectations of Bangladeshis who are, understandably, eager to savour the fruits of liberation after the ouster of the oppressive Sheikh Hasina regime.

Conditions in Bangladesh are unsettled, but to be fair to Dr.Yunus, not as chaotic as they were from July to October. Various sections of society are still pitching various demands. On occasion, mob justice is meted out to those suspected of having collaborated with Hasina. And yet, the government has restored a semblance of normalcy, thanks largely to the moral standing of thePresident’s Chief Advisor Dr.Muhammad Yunus.

The Interim Government has miles to go before it holds elections to the dissolved parliament and restores conventional democracy.

Some groups want elections to be expedited while others want reformation of the system to be done first.

Bangladesh Nationalist Party - BNP

In the absence of Hasina’s Awami League, which is on the verge of being banned as a “Fascist” party, the only major political formation in Bangladesh is the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), founded by military ruler/President Ziaur Rahman and currently led by his son Tarique Rahman with his mother Khaleda Zia as the titular head.

The BNP wants elections to be held quickly before the current political vacuum is filled by some other emerging forces like the Islamic parties which have indicated that they will fight as an alliance rather than individually. United, they could be a threat to the “secular” parties.

The BNP also fears that if the political vacuum is left unfilled for a long time, the Awami League might come back,backed by domestic and external forces that had benefitted from association with Hasina over the  past 15 years.

At any rate, the BNP feels that an elected government is crucial to address the country’s political and economic crises in a legitimate way. In the BNP’s view, the Interim Government should not focus on all reforms, but only those necessary to hold a free and fair election.

The main aim should be to create a level playing field which didn’t exist in Hasina’s time.

The India Factor

Neither Dr. Yunus, nor the BNP, nor the Islamic parties have a good relationship with India, which had been a firm supporter of Sheikh Hasina. The Hasina-India relationship was exceptionally symbiotic, and so, an eyesore for the anti-Hasina forces in Bangladesh. But the reality is that none of these parties can afford to be antagonistic to India given the multifarious Indo-Bangladesh ties built over the years and buttressed by the compulsions of geography.

Realising that it has to be friendly to India, the BNP has resolved to address some key Indian anxieties. A BNP document says that it will not let Bangladesh be used by terrorists to attack India and will not allow Islamic radicalism and terrorism either. Again,  to please India, which is concerned about the fate of the Hindu minority in Bangladesh, the BNP has said that its government will protect the social, political, economic and religious rights and also right to life, liberty and property of all small and big nationalities. Followers of every religion shall enjoy full rights to practice their religious beliefs and rituals, it added. No one will be allowed to hurt any citizen’s religious belief. Any attempt to destroy communal harmony will be sternly dealt with, the party said.

To make it acceptable to those who value the Liberation Struggle (Mukti Juddho) which created Bangladesh in 1971, the BNP declared that it will honour and reward “genuine” freedom fighters and will publicly observe December 16, as Victory Day as it was on this day in 1971 that the Pakistani army surrendered to the Indian army, givingbirth to Bangladesh. The recognition of the Mukti Juddho is also tantamount to recognising India’s decisive role in it.

The Islamist parties too are feeling the need to please India and broaden their support base domestically to win elections. An Islamic leader and scholar, Rezaul Karim, said that Islam is the only religion which guarantees a welfare state where everyones rights are respected.  Islam dictates that “the property and assets of a non- Muslim must be treated with equal respect and must be provided equal status as that of a Muslim”, Karim said.

It is not clear if all these pronouncements will convince India as it sees the hand of Pakistan in the anti-Hasina movement. The facts that Dr. Yunus met Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif in New York, that trade with Pakistan is being eased, and there is talk of forging security ties with Pakistan, have raised hackles in India.

Structural Changes Before Polls

Political groups other than the BNP do not want elections before structural changes are brought about to eliminate chances of the System being misused. Political groups, including the Islamic parties, want appropriate structures to be put in place before elections are held. All, including the BNP, are agreed that Bangladesh should do away the “First Past the Post system” in elections because it allows no representation of the defeated parties. Parties are pitching for the “Proportional Representation System” in which seats will be allocated according to the proportion of votes secured.

All parties, including the BNP, want parliamentary elections conducted under the aegis of a non-partisan Caretaker Government (as was the case earlier before Hasina abolished it by a constitutional Amendment).

A grievance that is being increasingly voiced is that the Yunus regime does not seem to be going about its task in a business-like manner.

Individual members of the Council of Advisors are voicing opinions on issues unilaterally, as in the case of the students’ demand for the resignation of the “pro-Hasina” President Mohammad Shahabuddin.

The fact that the Advisors are inexperienced in governance, shows up.

Relations with the US

On October 31, during his election campaign, Donald Trump had posted an incendiary tweet about Bangladesh saying that the Hindu minority there was being brutally treated and that under his watch this would not have been allowed to take place. He also praised the Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi at a time when India- Bangladesh relations were at their lowest ebb.

Commenting on this in an interview with The Daily Star, Michael Kugelman of the Wilson Centre said that Trump’s statements were campaign rhetoric to get the votes of Indian Americans, who are generally pro-Modi. But the onus will be on Dr.Yunus to get through to the Trump administration. Trump may not take the initiative.

Asked about a common US-India stand on Bangladesh, Kugelman said: “Donald Trump and Narendra Modi have a good rapport, and their ideological views are in many cases convergent. But I just dont think that would affect Bangladesh as the US and Bangladesh have a trade partnership—the US being a top destination for exports—and that would not concern India.” 

“ And regarding the great power competition, Trump ideologies would very much align with what India would like to see, which is that the Bangladesh government does not get closer to China.”

“If Trump takes a hard line on US-China competition—( as he likely will but you never know with him) —he may try to push Dhaka to work more with Washington, which could cause tensions. But as you know, Trump is a maverick. While you can make inferences based on what he’s done in the past, we cannot rule out the possibility that he could decide after taking office, to reach some sort of understanding with President Xi Jinping.”

Bangladesh’s problems are complicated. But hope of solutions being found lies in the fact that Bangladesh has, in the past, weathered severe political storms.