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Myanmar government forces parade in Yangon. As the Junta is losing ground, India is increasingly cosying up with the Ethnic Armed Organisations (EAOs) in order to defend their interests in the North East.
Indo-US intelligence cooperation has the proven potential to check China’s pressure tactics, they point out. More broadly, Washington should emphasise to New Delhi that a more assertive stance on Myanmar will blunt the expansion of Chinese influence in South Asia, they urge
The unending war in North Myanmar between the Yangon-based military junta and the Ethnic Armed Organisations (EAOs) is posing a serious challenge to India’s security in its own North Eastern region comprising the States of Nagaland, Mizoram and Manipur.
The spill over from the war is disturbing the ethnic equilibrium in India’s North East and also threatening its overall security, especially with a hostile China and an alienated Bangladesh being in close proximity to the scene of action.
India has been supporting the junta despite the West’s displeasure about the world’s largest democracy not giving a helping hand to the struggling democratic movement in Myanmar led by Nobel Peace Laureate, Aung San Suu Kyi.
India has been supplying arms to Myanmar. It was the third-largest supplier of arms before the February 2021 military coup. And according to the UN, sales from Indian firms amounted to US$ 51 million in weapons and materiel for the junta since the coup.
The other reason for India to support the military government is that the military could not be gotten rid of easily in Myanmar politics given the history of the country in which the army, or the Tatmadaw as it is called, has ruled the country directly or indirectly since the 1960s.
There is also a legitimate fear in India that the warring ethnic groups may balkanise Myanmar, fomenting more chaos. The Bamar, who are the majority community in Myanmar, are entirely Buddhist. But most ethnic groups are mostly Christian. And the Rohingyas of Bengali origin in Arakan, are Muslim. They are together now but could well go at each other’s throats once the junta is done away with.
As pointed out earlier, EAOs operating on the India-Myanmar border, have links with kindred tribal groups in the North Eastern Indian States of Manipur, Mizoram and Nagaland. Local ethnic groups with cross-border social links have pressured New Delhi to keep the border with Myanmar porous. For example, the Mizoram government has openly challenged the Indian Home Ministry’s direction to barricade the border.
India fears infiltration of gun runners and terror groups. In Manipur, the Christian Kukis attack the Hindu Meitei with the help of the Chins and Zos from Myanmar as these are kindred tribes.
At present these EAOs are kept under some control by the New Delhi-friendly junta in Yangon. But once the junta exits (after its military defeat), the EAOs will have a free hand to support movements of their kinsmen on the Indian side. For example, the Christian Kukis who have been battling the Hindu Meiteis in Manipur, are already getting the support of the Chin and the Zo tribes across the India-Myanmar border. The Kukis, Chins and Zos form one big ethnic conglomeration collectively called the Zo. Chin-Kuki gun-running across the boundary is on already.
India-China Conflict
India has, for long, supported the junta on the plea that if it did not do so, China would continue to enjoy a monopoly over the junta denying a place for India in Myanmar.Since the 2021 military coup, China has transferred military jets to the Junta. Indian officials had also confronted the junta over possible Chinese intelligence facilities on Myanmar’s Coco Islands.
China is said to be putting pressure on the armed groups in the Kachin and Shan states to make peace with the Myanmar junta. Kachin is Myanmar’s northernmost State, bordering China. Shan State is also bordered by China.
Given China’s links with the junta, India should befriend the EAOs, some Indian commentators say. The EAOs are friendly with Aung San Suu Kyi’s National League for Democracy (NLD), which heads the National Unity Government (NUG). The NLD and NUG are anti-China and pro-West.
Zo Tum Hmung and John Indergaard in a paper published by the United States Institute for Peace urge India to intervene in Myanmar in its own interest. They also urge the US to support India in this venture. According to them, over 50,000 civilians have fled across the border from Myanmar’s Chin State and Sagaing Region into India’s North East. This should worry India, they point out.
According to these commentators, the People’s Liberation Army of Manipur and Manipur Naga People’s Front, which are fighting the Indian government for greater autonomy, have used Myanmar as a staging ground for attacks in India. In November 2021, they ambushed a convoy of the Assam Rifles.
The authors of the paper welcome White House’s April 4th 2023 statement rejecting China’s claims on the Indian State of Arunachal Pradesh. Indo-US intelligence cooperation has the proven potential to check China’s pressure tactics, they point out. More broadly, Washington should emphasise to New Delhi that a more assertive stance on Myanmar will blunt the expansion of Chinese influence in South Asia, they urge.
“The US Congress has shown real leadership on Myanmar, authorising US$ 136 million in funding for pro-democracy groups and humanitarian aid with the BURMA Act of 2022,” Tum Hmung and Indergaard say.
India’s High Stakes
India has a number of on-going development projects in Myanmar, but the most important among them is the Kaladan Multimodal Transport Transit Project (KMTTP). The objective of this US$ 484 million project is to transport goods from Kolkata port in West Bengal State to Mizoram through Myanmar, bypassing Bangladesh.
Goods will be transported by ship from Kolkata and other places on India’s eastern seaboard to Sittwe port in Rakhine State and then taken upstream along the Kaladan River to Paletwa in Chin State, from where they will be transported by road to Mizoram.
India has already executed the dredging and construction of new jetties at Sittwe, and developed the Paletwa river port. Construction of the highway from Zorinpui in Mizoram to Paletwa has, however, been held up because of the war in that area, Swarajya says.
This transit route is strategically and economically important for India because it offers a second and more secure route from West Bengal State in India to India’s North Eastern States as compared to the existing one through the “Chicken’s Neck” corridor in North Bengal.
The “Chicken Neck” is a narrow corridor that can be easily closed by an invading Chinese army. And an anti-India Bangladesh can cooperate with China in closing the “Chicken Neck.” Significantly, it was at Doklam near the “Chicken Neck” that Indian and Chinese armies had a 73-day standoff in 2017.
India has signed a number of transit protocols for the transportation of goods through Bangladesh. But given the on-going faceoff between the two countries after the ouster of the pro-Indian Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, transit through Bangladesh has become problematic. Hence the enhanced importance of the Kaladan project.
India cosies up to EAOs
Seeing the emerging scenario in Myanmar, India has started moving towards the rebel groups. Opponents of Myanmar’s ruling junta attended a seminar in New Delhi on November 5 and 6, organised by the Indian Council for World Affairs (ICWA).
The Indian External Affairs Ministry spokesman, Randhir Jaiswal, said on November 6 that the conference was designed to “help develop a Myanmar-led and Myanmar-owned solution to address the country’s current challenges.” He went on to pledge India’s “steadfast support” for Myanmar’s democracy and stability. With this, India may have stolen a march over China.
India’s next steps are eagerly awaited by the pro-democracy groups in Myanmar. However, there is doubt about American backing given President-elect Donald Trump’s inward-looking policies and his transactional approach in international relations.
The Myanmar daily The Irrawaddy fears that if Trump strikes economically advantageous deals with China, he may turn a blind eye to Myanmar and to what Beijing is doing there. And the junta may still have the last word.
