Why Sri Lanka is in a tight spot over a strong leader

Many people reject only the dictatorship of others and not of those they support

In a country where oppression of others’ views had been the norm, a wider democratic space is deemed to be an indication of weakness of the establishment

Northern Tamil votes would also have to be counted against the SLPP at a Presidential election

The advice was given by Ven. Vendaruwe Upali Thera, the Anunayaka of the Asgiriya Chapter to former Defence Secretary Gotabaya Rajapaksa to become a Hitler, in order to build the country, would not have become so controversial and a widely read topic in newspapers, if there weren’t a debate over the latter’s possible candidacy at the next Presidential Election.

The Ven. Thera had reportedly requested the former Defence Secretary to even resort to become a Hitler and run a military rule and build the country.

He said this at the religious ceremony and almsgiving held on the 69th birthday of Gotabhaya Rajapaksa at his residence in Mirihana. However, in fairness to the Ven. Thera it is worth mentioning that he had made this statement in response to the allegations purported to have been made by the opponents of Mr Rajapaksa.

“If they call you a Hitler, then become a Hitler, even establish a military rule and build the country, the Thera had reportedly said. The statement since had drawn flak from many quarters including the highest offices in the country.

President Maithripala Sirisena said as a Buddhist he had the highest respect for the clergy, but could not agree with the senior monk of the Asgiriya chapter. Meanwhile, Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe also had stated in a public meeting there was no way Buddhism and Hitler’s brutality can be reconciled. “Buddhists cannot tell someone to be like Idi Amin or Hitler or Pol-Pot, it goes against the Buddha’s teachings” he had stated.

Therefore the 20th Amendment to the Constitution Bill presented by Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP) as a Private Members Bill recently seems to be a godsend to the SLPP and especially to Mahinda Rajapaksa

Dr Dayan Jayatilleka, who is vehement in his opposition to Gotabaya Rajapaksa’s manifest aspirations to become President of the country in spite of him being an ardent supporter of Gotabaya’s brother, former President Mahinda Rajapaksa, also had negatively commented on the Thera’s remarks in one of his newspaper columns. Even the Ambassador of Hitler’s country, Germany, Jorn Rohde had called the Thera’s remarks “outrageous.”

Gotabaya Rajapaksa being called as a dictator or a tough administrator is not without reasons. Whether he had any direct links or not, it was during his tenure as the Defence Secretary, the security forces had been accused of so many highhanded acts.

Killing demonstrators at Katunayake, Chilaw and Rathupaswala, attacks on journalists Lasantha Wikramatunga, Keith Noyahr, Upali Thennakoon and Poddala Jayantha, abduction of Kumar Gunarathnam and Welikada prison massacre were emblematic among them.

The main reason for the alarm behind these criticisms against the Thera’s remarks is not that many of these critics are pure democrats. Some of the critics had been either members or the defenders of a Government that abolished the Independent Commissions, which had some checks over highhandedness of the Executive Presidency, while some others had been either members or supporters of Governments during which dead bodies were strewn along the roads and floated in rivers and lagoons. Thus, many people reject only the dictatorship of others and not of those they support

As mentioned above, the alarm over the Thera’s remarks has been caused purely due to the current debate over Gotabaya Rajapaksa’s apparent plan to contest at the next Presidential Election.
Gotabaya- while claiming that he would consider contesting at the next Presidential Election only if he has the blessings of his brother and former President- has been in recent months building a political image for him through his Eliya (Light) Organization and Viyath Maga (Scholarly Path) programmes. If he has no political ambitions there is no logic behind these efforts.

However, despite the Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP), the newly declared party unofficially led by Mahinda Rajapaksa, winning the majority of Local Councils at the February 10 LG elections, prospects of Gotabaya or any other leader of Mahinda Rajapaksa camp at the next Presidential Election is not so bright, mainly due to the whole country turning into a single electorate at such an election.

There can be distortions of proportionality of votes obtained by various political parties at all other elections, but not at a Presidential Election.

For instance, the SLPP which had obtained 4.9 million votes at the February 10 elections had won more than 230 out of 340 Local Councils, whereas the United National Party (UNP) while bagging 3.6 million votes from around the country had the majority power in just 41 councils.

Proportionally, the UNP should have been in power at least in 170 councils. Though the total number of councils won by the parties in the Government was about fifty the votes received collectively by them exceeded the votes of the SLPP.

Northern Tamil votes would also have to be counted against the SLPP at a Presidential election.

Therefore, winning all communities is very vital for any party to win a Presidential Election. For reasons real as well as perceived, Gotabaya Rajapaksa would be the last person in the Rajapaksa camp to do so.

Minorities do not seem to have changed their mind with regard to Gotabaya. On the other hand, he is not an undisputed candidate even within the Rajapaksa camp.

However, the anti-SLPP camp must have a common Presidential candidate if they are to defeat Gotabaya or any SLPP candidate, as they did in 2014, which is a remote possibility in the light of current political alignments.

Therefore, the SLPP might come first but not get the legally required 50 per cent of votes, which would necessitate the counting of second preference, for the first time in the history.

Nevertheless, the prospects for the SLPP would be far better at a General Election, if held prior to the Presidential Election.

If the Mahinda camp was able to win around 90 seats at the 2015 August Parliamentary Election despite its unexpected and humiliating defeat at the Presidential Election seven months ago, with the morale boost gained at the recent Local Government elections they might turn the tables and would at least be able to come first, if not winning the election.

And if his group managed to win 113 seats in the Parliament, Mahinda Rajapaksa knows how to muster the support of another 37 or 38 MPs to take over the Presidential mantle after bringing in the provisions of the 18th Amendment to the Constitution again.

Yet, the 19th Amendment to the Constitution does not in any way allow the Elections Commission to hold the next Parliamentary Election before the Presidential Election.

Also, only an insane person can expect Parliament dissolving itself passing a resolution, to go for a mid-term election.

Therefore the 20th Amendment to the Constitution Bill presented by Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP) as a Private Members Bill recently seems to be a godsend to the SLPP and especially to Mahinda Rajapaksa.

But Rajapaksa and his loyalists have not realised it. Besides, Mahinda Rajapaksa is an undisputed leader and a candidate within his group, for any high office.

Ven. Upali Thera had later clarified his remarks on the former Defence Secretary. He had said what he meant was that the country needed a strong leader with a firm resolve.

Despite the question remaining as to how many people might have accepted his clarification, nobody can contest the fact that country needs a strong leader with a firm resolve.

In a country where oppression of others’ views had been the norm, a wider democratic space is deemed to be an indication of weakness of the establishment, as the case has been today.

The University students unions and the GMOA that meekly submitted, when President Rajapaksa provided loans and scholarships to SAITM, created a hell over the same issue under this Government.

Also, in a country where everything including religion is politicized, with people being prepared to ruin their own future in the name of politics, people would oppose every act and project  progressive or destructive finding holes in them.

Hence, some sort of bulldozing is justifiable.

Marxists do not hesitate to call the mechanism that implements socialism a “proletarian dictatorship.” Mahathir Mohamed or Lee Kwan Yew did not build their countries with leniency. Yet, in a society corrupt to the core with even the anti-corruption drives being corrupt, those bulldozing powers without proper checks and balances would lead to producing Hitlers.

That is the tight spot Sri Lanka is in.