• Post Aragalaya masses seem to be more concerned about a stable economy
• If the new President fails to formulate and execute a detailed plan to address the debt repayment issue the country would slip into a crisis that would be more brutal 

Surely, the expectations of people on the outcome of the forthcoming Presidential election are a far cry from what is expected by the politicians. And what the people expected through elections before the Aragalaya, the only public uprising that the country saw since the Independence was also a far cry from what they long for now. 
Politicians, except for a few, do not want to see a drastic socioeconomic change through this election, they simply want to be assured of political positions that they already hold or that they seek, while the masses crave a “system change” as indicated by the prime slogan of the Aragalaya two years ago. 

Unlike at the past elections when traditional political bonds between the masses and political parties as well as the protest vote played a critical role, the post-Aragalaya masses seem to be more concerned about a stable economy that would ensure a safe and secure future for them and their children or a “system change.” 

Economic downturn 

The Aragalaya was not a predetermined coup, but a spontaneous uprising by the people provoked by an unprecedented economic downturn which ruined the lives of majority of those who belong to the middle class and the poor. The economic crisis was not a matter of queues for fuel and cooking gas, despite them being a clear manifestation of it. Hence, bringing an end to those queues using more and more borrowings in turn does not amount to a recovery of the economy, as some politicians suggest. 
The Aragalaya had an immediate objective and a long-term craving. The immediate objective which was marked by the slogan “Gota go home” during the uprising was achieved on July 9, 2022, but those who played a major role in those protests did not have a vision to take their struggle forward from the immediate objective to the long-term craving, the “system change.”  Thus, it paved the way for Ranil Wickremesinghe who was the only member representing his party, the United National Party (UNP) in Parliament to be enthroned first as the Prime Minister in May 2022 and two months later as the President. 
Wickremesinghe’s party has been supportive of the Aragalaya from its beginning in April 2022 and he pledged to provide facilities to Gota Go Gama, the protest site in the Galle Face Green even after he was appointed Prime Minister by President Gotabaya Rajapaksa, despite the ouster of latter being the prime target of the protesters. Nevertheless, the protesters did not believe or expect him to bring in a system change, though such an expectation was logical, in a way. 
He, following his assumption of office as the President continued the programme involving the International Monetary Fund (IMF) initiated by his predecessor Gotabaya Rajapaksa who also already had appointed competent local officials and international advisors to carry forward the programme. It was not a new strategy to bail out the country, but a set of recommendations that were put forward by the global lender in its country report in March, 2022, even prior to the Gotabaya government sought its assistance. The programme, though it was a great consolation to the government was basically a reform formula based on taxing and borrowings.  

IMF sponsored programme 

Despite the IMF sponsored programme being an inevitable first step for a country which had been denied any assistance by the lending countries and institutions leaving it to declare bankruptcy two years ago, it did not offer a specific detailed plan of action to repay the huge mountain of debt owed already by the country. Such a plan which has to be prepared and executed by the government does not seem to be taken note of at any level. That would be the greatest challenge the new President who would take over following the September 21 election is going to face. 
Sri Lanka defaulted on its foreign debt on April 12, 2022 and following the agreement with the bilateral creditors on June 26 this year under the IMF assisted debt restructuring programme, it was also given a grace period till 2028 to repay the debts. It is expected that the international bond holders too would help the country with such a concession. 
Yet, we have to repay these debts with their accumulated principals and interests once the grace periods lapse. The IMF also had told last year that Sri Lanka has to commence repayment of loans it had granted to the country, under its Extended Fund Facility (EFF), from 2027. 

If the new President who would take over the reins of the country in about two months fails to formulate and execute a detailed plan of action to address this issue, leave alone executing the much-touted system change, the country would slip into a crisis that would be more brutal than what we encountered two years ago.  However, politicians in our country do not seem to have understood or to want to understand this threat, given their statements and actions including somersaults from one party to another in search of positions.  
Unlike the past Presidential elections which were mostly two-cornered, the forthcoming election is likely to be a three-cornered or multi-cornered, if the Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP) also fields a candidate. The months-long speculations about a coalition between the United National Party (UNP) led by President Ranil Wickremesinghe and the SLPP led by former President Mahida Rajapaksa seem to be no longer valid as Wickremesinghe was the first to place his deposits with the Elections Commission (EC) on July 26 to contest the election while the latter too have officially decided three days later to field a candidate. However, they have failed so far to decide who their candidate would be.  

Party leadership 

The SLPP might have been undecided earlier to contest under its “Lotus Bud” symbol with or without the support of the President. Yet, they seem to have been provoked to take a firm decision on the matter subsequent to certain MPs of the party having resolved to support the President without consulting the party leadership. Also, as SLPP Parliamentarian Gamini Lokuge stated the party has been compelled to go solo, after the President placed deposits to contest without consulting the SLPP which supported his every move in Parliament, apart from voting him into power on July 20, 2022.   
Much to the embarrassment of the SLPP leadership, the President went ahead with splitting the party by convening a meeting of 92 Parliamentarians of the SLPP on Tuesday (July 30) where they expressed support to him. Interestingly, the meeting was held at the Presidential Secretariat, according to the Presidential Media Division.  The next day, a group of former SLPP provincial councilors also followed suit at the Waters Edge Hotel. The Sri Lanka Freedom party’s Nimal Siripala faction and Prime Minister Dinesh Gunawardene’s Mahajana Eksath Peramuna (MEP) which were already with the President did the obvious. 
Leaders of the SLPP and some politicians of the Samagi Jana Balawegaya (SJB) who seem to have been upset by these developments argue that the voters do not move from one party to another in spite of horse-trading taking place at higher levels. However, these are not totally unexpected developments and they have not yet assured Wickremesinghe’s victory, since even the SLPP as a party was expected to support him. 

The defectors of the SLPP apparently feel relatively comfortable and secure with the President than what they feel within their party at this moment. Their motive and that of the UNP is nothing but their political survival and the combination does not at all ensure any system change in an event of Wickremesinghe winning, especially given the track record of the defectors. 
What matters to the voters is not who join hands with whom or who defects from which party, but who has a plan or at least the capability and the political will to prepare and execute such a plan to face the debt trap which would tighten its grip in about three years. After all, the crisis has shed only the queues, leaving all other ill effects of it – income loss, threefold price hike, uncertainty on the future and the shattered dreams are still hounding the masses. Whether voters are sufficiently armed with political literacy is a matter to be ascertained after September 21.