President Maithripala Sirisena sprang a surprise last Friday (October 26)  by dismissing UNP Leader Ranil Wickremesinghe from the premiership and appointing his erstwhile colleague Mahinda Rajapaksa to the post.  It led to a constitutional tussle which is making international news headlines.  

Amidst calls from various quarters to convene Parliament and test the person claiming to have the majority support to be the Prime Minister, the UNP and the UPFA are in a rigorous exercise to lure MPs to prove   their strength in the House when it will meet on November 16 after prorogation. 

• Both try to woo TNA MPs
• TNA set to be neutral

During the past four weeks, we discussed the political developments that eventually climaxed following the swearing in of a new Prime Minister.  In fact, we reported it under the headline ‘Yahapalana regime at breaking point’ in our edition published on October 4. We discussed at length how the rift between the President and the Prime Minister widened.  Let us now discuss how things would unfold next! 

The 2015 parliamentary elections sent 105 members to Parliament on the UNP ticket, and the UPFA 95.   Numerically speaking, the UPFA, after the game of power change, now commands the support of 101 MPs as five UNPers and EPDP MP Douglas Devananda were sworn in the   new Government of Mahinda Rajapaksa. 

Be that as it may, the UNP led by Wickremesinghe is in relentless pursuit to initiate crossovers from the other side to muster the required number to remain in office. 

The Tamil National Alliance (TNA), which is the main opposition of Parliament with 16 parliamentarians on its roll, has been the focus of attention by both Wickremesinghe and Rajapaksa in their race against time to win over as many MPs as possible.

TNA Leader R. Sampanthan, a seasoned Tamil politician, called on President Sirisena, Wickremesinghe and Rajapaksa after the change and discussed the latest developments in politics. 

Above all, his audience with the new Prime Minister acquired significance as a novel political development because there were scant political relations between the two during the past three and half years.

Sampanthan made representation to Rajapaksa at his residence in Wijerama Mawatha, Colombo 7 on Tuesday.  Former Minister Prof. G.L. Peiris too was present at the meeting. There were candid expressions of views at this meeting.

Afterwards, Mr. Sampanthan summoned the parliamentary group of his party and apprised them of what he had learned from his interactions with these three leaders in terms of the unfolding political developments.

First, he said that the President was gravely perturbed and hurt over the alleged assassination attempt on him. 

According to political sources, he moved on next to brief what transpired at his meeting with Rajapaksa. 

Sampanthan reportedly asked for a commitment from Rajapaksa to offer a constitutional solution to what he called ‘the Tamil national question’. For that purpose, he tried to secure commitment from Rajapaksa to offer a solution in line with the power devolution package worked out by the Government of former President Chandrika Bandaranaike Kumaratunga in 2000. 

Rajapaksa also served in that Government in 2000. As such Sampanthan might have assumed that there was no reason for Rajapaksa to oppose any solution based on that package.  Nonetheless, Rajapaksa responded forthwith saying that he had no mandate for such a pledge to be made as a condition to accommodate the TNA on board. 

The Daily Mirror learns that Sampanthan   had promised Rajapaksa that he would opt to remain neutral in Parliament. 

Also, Sampanthan is reported to have said that Tamils were deceived for 30-40 years by the successive Governments and therefore they should not be made fools of once again. By saying so, he tried to secure a firm commitment from Rajapaksa.

Jaffna District MP M.A. Sumanthiran was the only TNA legislator to have reservations about his party doing anything advantageous for Rajapaksa.  Sumanthiran   asked how Rajapaksa could be trusted going by his past conduct as far as the issues connected to Tamils were concerned. Let alone, most TNA MPs, having weighed ground politics in the south, opined that Rajapaksa should not be antagonised any further as otherwise it would be impossible to get anything done by him in the future.    

Also, Sampanthan told the meeting that   the Sinhala people would not oppose   if Rajapaksa offered any solution to issues concerning the Tamils. 

Among the political parties, only the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP) has formally announced that it would not support anyone in Parliament on the formation of a Government.   In that context, the TNA has a crucial role to play.  But, the TNA’s support will be of little value if  Rajapaksa   engineers a mass exodus from the UNP and secured a simple majority of 113 MPs or more.  The same will happen to the TNA if the UNP secured a simple majority with enough crossovers from the UPFA.  Anyway, a mass exodus from either party is a remote possibility. Therefore,   it is learned that the UNP and the UPFA are approaching the TNA MPs individually to woo them. 

Namal’s endearment with TNA MPs

Already, the Prime  Minister’s son Namal has reached some TNA legislators individually and asked for support.  It is reported that young Rajapaksa has befriended some TNA members so much so that he addresses them ‘Machan’, a term of endearment.

The UNP is also in a move to win over the TNA legislators on an individual basis. So, the TNA gains in importance in Parliament under the current political climate. But, for them, it is not an easy decision to support the UNP once again. 

The President’s sacking of the Prime Minister appears to have met with stiff resistance from the western world.  In the immediate aftermath of the   appointment of a new Prime Minister, European Union, along with like-minded countries such as Norway and Canada, issued a statement.

It said that    that the Ambassador of the European Union, as well as the Ambassadors of France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Romania and the UK High Commissioner, are closely following the events unfolding in Sri Lanka.

They asked all parties to fully act in accordance with Sri Lanka’s constitution and to refrain from violence, to follow due institutional process and to respect the independence of institutions and the freedom of media.

However, the President stood for constitutionality of his action in the removal of Wickremesinghe from office   amidst counter arguments by the UNP, its leaders and some civil society leaders that the move was unlawful. They all called for convening Parliament, so that the two persons claiming to be the Prime Ministers could contest their strength in terms of the number of MPs sitting with them at the moment. 

On Monday, the President briefed the diplomatic community in Colombo to clarify his position and to answer questions raised in regards to the legality of his action in sacking the Prime Minister. 

Prez quotes two Presidential Counsel  

At this briefing, the heads of diplomatic missions of European Union and the like-minded countries expressed their concern regarding the ‘ongoing constitutional crisis’. They urged all concerned to convene Parliament.

In response to the western ambassadors who raised questions, the President argued for constitutionality of his action quoting interpretations from two President’s Counsel. 

The western diplomats said they were worried about the prospect of rising violence, intimidation and threats.  That was an obvious reference to the shooting incident at the Ceylon Petroleum Corporation on Sunday.

In his response, the President said such political violence had dropped in Sri Lanka as per statistics from 2001. He said he would take measures to deescalate violence if any.  

Reconciliation process won’t be derailed  The western diplomatic heads had another   fear that the reconciliation, reform and transitional justice process would be derailed.  Obviously, they feared that such things could not be achieved under the premiership of Rajapaksa. So, they questioned about it.

In trying to allay their fears, the President said, “Look at me for those things! I will ensure that these will not be derailed,”

Also, the President said that his sacking of the Prime Minister was well in line with the principles of good governance.  He told the briefing that most Cabinet tender deals were not transparent at that time. And, he said it prompted him to take this action eventually. 

“Actually, 75 percent of our people are happy with what I did,” he said. 

The western countries look perturbed over the change of premiership according to the tone and tenor of their collective voice.