Ukraine is in trouble today because the EU’s aid package was blocked by Hungary, and no EU country is able to produce the munitions badly needed by Ukraine
Photo Credits: The Hindu

There is a war in Ukraine? It seems to have been forgotten by everyone–except by Ukraine, Russia and their respective allies.
When Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered his military to invade Ukraine in February 2022, many including myself expected it to be over in weeks. In my case, this was because, as much as I dislike Putin’s dictatorship, Russian superiority in armour, artillery, aircraft and manpower was so big it was hard to see how Ukraine could stop all those tanks rolling over the country’s eastern steppes and advancing into the country, encircling and destroying outnumbered Ukrainian forces.

Fortunately, or unfortunately, depending on who’s side you are on, this has not been the case. Ukrainians fought back fiercely, defending their capital Kyiv and counterattacking vigorously. The US and its NATO allies in the European Union (EU) gave generous financial and military aid, including German Leopard tanks and anti-tank missiles. Without that, the Ukrainians, even with the best could not have resisted for so long.

But, two years and two months after the invasion began, what’s happening now? Germany recently gave an aid package of 500 million Euros, but aid by both the US and EU has been checkmated, and the Ukrainians are critically short of ammunition.

Before looking at the military situation, let’s assess the political implications. There is a fierce propaganda war going on with both sides claiming victory, and one has to be very careful when making a neutral assessment of this war, militarily or politically. 

Prof. John Mearsheimer urges Kyiv to negotiate an immediate peace with Moscow without waiting for the inevitable and signing a peace treaty on Putin’s terms

On the Western side, Ukraine has no shortage of social media supporters. But, one distinct voice emerges out of this cacophony: Prof. John Mearsheimer, Professor of Political Science at the University of Chicago, a respected authority on geopolitics and author of several books,  has been an outspoken critic of American foreign policy and is very clear on this issue. According to him, as things stand now, Ukraine risks losing this war, with disastrous implications for itself,  the US and its NATO allies; and he urges Kyiv to negotiate an immediate peace with Moscow,without waiting for the inevitable and signing a peace treaty on Putin’s terms.

As Prof. Mearsheimer repeatedly points out, the US forced Putin’s hand by bringing NATO to Russia’s doorsteps. I think, this is a credible point of view. Putin is ruthless and an ambitious Russian nationalist, but he isn’t mad. Many Western politicians and analysts believe his ultimate goal is control over all of Europe, and he won’t stop with taking Ukraine.

But, there is little evidence to support this view. Many believe that Putin dreams of putting Russia back where the ex-USSR was before its dismantlement. But, Prof. Mearsheimer quotes Putin as saying anyone who wants to do this now has to be mad. No one knows what Putin really thinks, but his goals could well be more realistic and limited. Watching NATO coming closer to Russia’s vulnerable land borders would have worried any Russian leader. When NATO considered making the Ukraine a member in 2018, that would have convinced Putin to act before NATO did.

Germany recently gave an aid package of 500 million Euros, but aid by the US and EU has been checkmated, leaving Ukrainians short of ammunition

Putin may certainly keep his eyes on the small Baltic Republics. His forces have taken 18% of Ukraine. Prof. Mearsheimer believes Putin never wanted to take the whole of Ukraine, only those parts strategically important to Russia’s defenses.

Both  Finland and Sweden have started re-arming, expecting war with Russia. Sweden is set to become a NATO member and Finland will follow. Will Putin attack Finland before it joins NATO? But Finland, though small, is militarily capable and geographically hard to invade, and Putin will remember Stalin’s disastrous 1938 war with Ukraine, in which Soviet Russia’s poor military strategy and performance convinced Hitler that ‘Russia is a rotten door and one kick will bring it down,’ leading to his disastrous invasion of Russia in June 1941.

Comparisons are made between Hitler and Putin. But Hitler was a military adventurer and overestimated himself and his country’s resources for a long drawn out war. Putin’s fantasies seem to be more grounded in reality. 

NATO looks more and more like a paper tiger with little clout. Britain, France and Germany are its principal European shields. But British military experts who worry about having to fight Russia say that Britain lacks the resources to meet such a threat, not able to assemble more than one armoured brigade and its naval air power will lose its clout if its two powerful aircraft carriers are lost. One of its Trident nuclear missiles test fired recently from a submarine and malfunctioned. 

There is a fierce propaganda war going on, with both sides claiming victory, and one has to be very careful when making a neutral assessment of this war, militarily or politically

Germany has only just started rearming. France has a strong military, but can expect little support from its smaller northern neighbours except Sweden. Ukraine is in trouble today because the EU’s aid package was blocked by Hungary (one vote is enough to nullify any common EU decision), and no EU country is able to produce the munitions (from grenades to artillery shells) badly needed by Ukraine in sufficient quantities.

Russia, on the other hand,  has no such problem. An estimated 2900 of its best tanks have been destroyed in the fighting, but it has a huge stock of older tanks, and is able to refurbish them at the rate of 100 per month. No EU member has that capability. 

But, getting back to that imagined threat of Putin sending his forces into Western Europe, he would be mad to do that with his numerically large but depleted military. Any invasion logically would have to reach the English Channel, and that’s a long way to go with 50 year old tanks. It can’t be done without air superiority and his air force is weak. It has no control even in the skies over Ukraine, and will be further stressed if those long-promised American F-16s finally arrive in Ukraine.

And then, there is the chilling factor of nuclear war to be considered. Putin will not hesitate to use nuclear weapons if necessary, but he knows quite well what would happen to his country and himself if he does so.

According to Prof. John Mearsheimer, as things stand now, Ukraine risks losing this war, with disastrous implications for itself,  the US and its NATO allies, and  urges Kyiv to negotiate an immediate peace with Moscow

Historically, Russia has never invaded the West. It has annexed a part of China (Manchuria), and has sold Alaska to the US and is quite happy to see it stay that way. The Soviet army reached Berlin in 1945 only as a logical answer to Hitler’s invasion of Russia. Russia is very sensitive about its borders. It should be, because it has been invaded by Vikings, Mongols, Tartars, the Huns, the Swedes under king Gustavus Adolphus, the French (Napoleon), and combined West European forces after the Russian Revolution. 

Germany has invaded Russia twice. Actually, it’s Germany, from the Bismarck-Prussian military supremacy era to Hitler, that West Europeans feared, not Russia. It’s Germany that started two world wars. 
But the ‘Russian bear’ overwhelms everyone’s imagination after Putin’s invasion. They are conveniently forgetting that by pushing NATO more and more towards Russian borders, they kindled legitimate Russian fears about their country’s security. The Ukrainian war seemed to be a stalemate until early this year. Last year, it even degenerated into ‘trench warfare’ reminiscent of World War I.

British military experts who worry about having to fight Russia say that Britain lacks the resources to meet such a threat, not able to assemble more than one armoured brigade and its naval air power will lose its clout if its two powerful aircraft carriers are lost

But, after the eastern town of Avdiivka fell in February 2024, Russian forces have gained the upper hand. The Russians have suffered heavy casualties, but Putin has started partial recruitment. He has no scruples about using his soldiers as cannon fodder. The Russian army, led by Putin loyalists, will not rebel. 

The Ukranians are still talking about recruitment, but they haven’t done it. Their soldiers are exhausted after endless fighting. The average age of a Ukrainian soldier was 27 when the war started, now it’s in the forties. But, their biggest worry is running out of ammunitions, and what they get from their EU allies is hardly enough. They know that time is running out for them. If Donald Trump wins the US presidency in November, Ukraine is as good as finished. US President Joe Biden wants to help Ukraine, but his aid package remains blocked by Republican-dominated Congress.
Next week, we’ll look into more detail at the military situation.