What’s next with India-Sri Lanka ties post President Dissanayake’s Visit?

After the inaugural proceedings, both leaders discussed their shared interests and possibilities for future corporations

On September 28, I posted my thoughts briefly on social media under the title ‘Navigating Foreign Policy Towards the Stable Country: The Daunting Challenges for the AKD Government in Sri Lanka’. The main purpose of that write-up was to expose the complexity and criticalness of the external affairs that the AKD government has to deal with in future. This article aims at President Dissanayake’s first diplomatic mission embarked on under the crucial moment of navigating its foreign policy to neighbouring India, which badly seeks to secure its position in regional and global contexts.

Sri Lanka’s presidential election was held amidst a growing political and economic turbulence, which probably caused many countries, more or less, to fall into a dangerous course by protracting military and trade wars in the world. However, Sri Lanka, being a small nation, a country hampered by multiple political, economic and governance issues such as the unbearable mounting foreign debt, corrupted politicians’ which led inefficient bureaucratic governance with fragile political institutions, yet a geopolitically significant Island has been handed over to the AKD’s government by its heavily frustrated voters with keeping little hope. However, it seems that the victory of AKD was shocking for the local ruling elites, regional and global players in the contemporary international system.

Notwithstanding a well-composed and pragmatic foreign policy formation included in the election manifesto of the NPP, many are skeptical that the diplomatically inexperienced AKD will be heavily tested on the way he navigates his external affairs, which is far more complicated than internal issues. Some critics sarcastically claimed that, even though AKD’s political personality and outspoken caliber are fitting for local polity and audience, he may probably be unsuccessful in the international arena and perhaps drag the country towards the worst scenario by his (JVP) anti-Indian, anti-West and pro-leftist ideological inherence. 

During the last decade, the establishment of New Delhi was heavily frustrated by growing political and economic dynamics in neighbouring countries. With the inception of China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), Beijing has been actively engaging with small nations’ economic and strategic infrastructure development projects in South Asia. Moreover, the US-led Western countries are also skeptical of India due to their role in the BRICS-led global south. As mentioned in Nikkei Asia, India is losing its neighbours due to inconsistent and untrustworthy policies towards their neighbours. The Maldives president, Mohomed Muizzu, visited Turkey as his first state visit, while Nepal Prime Minister, Sharma Oli, visited China and Dr Muhammad Yunus, leader of the interim government in Bangladesh, visited the USA depicting negative indications about the Indian influence on her neighbours. These neighbouring countries were politically closed countries and recipients of the neighbour’s first policy and SAGAR. Even though the New Delhi establishment was keen on working closely with Ranil Wickremesinghe-led Traditional Leaders, the unexpected regime changes in SL forced them to strategically engage with the AKD regime, leaving her conception to the JVP in order to reduce the risk of being isolated in her region. This has proved the realistic political theory; there are no permanent enemies and permanent friends in politics. New Delhi promptly extended its good hand to the NPP regime and invited President Dissanayake for his first state visit to India, portraying the geopolitical significance of the Island nation. 

As far as the traditional foreign policy analysts’ perspective may be concerned, many speculated that the direction of Sri Lankan foreign policy under President Dissanayake will be determined by the socialist-oriented political and economic ideology of the JVP, which is the foundation of the NPP, and it will likely be pro-Chinese. Moreover, many expect President Dissanayake to deal with regional rivalries between India and China. He will not hesitate to follow China’s stance by neglecting the presence of India in the region; thus, he will visit Beijing as his first state visit. In fact, there are strong reasons behind such an argument, such as the unprecedented economic dependency on China, JVP ideological proximity, and China’s promising leadership to the global south in changing the new world order. Moreover, New Delhi’s past records on engagements in local political power games in pre-election contexts, in which New Delhi continuously extended its fullest support vigorously to secure the traditional elite’s dominant regimes to evade the possible victory of the NPP in Sri Lanka

Defying all predictions, AKD has embarked on his first foreign diplomatic mission and landed in New Delhi on the 15th of December for a three day state visit along with his Foreign Minister, Vijitha Herath, Deputy Minister of Economic Development, Dr Anil Jayantha and well-prepared high-profile delegates. New Delhi’s establishment also has arranged his state visit by offering a grand diplomatic ceremonial welcome and showing their intention to normalise the Indo-Lanka relations, which are badly needed for Indian interest in the region. During the AKD’s visit, arrangements were made to meet the entire New Delhi establishment, including President (Rashtrapathi) Droupadi Murmu, Prime Minister, Narendra Modi, Foreign Ministers, Dr S. Jaishankar, Finance Minister, Nirmala Seetharaman and Mr Ajith Doval, the Security Advisor to the Indian Prime Minister. President Dissanayake met the Indian business community to foster partnerships for a shared future. All mutual interactions took place in New Delhi were cordial and cooperative, and Indian media has given top priority to this visit by hailing President Dissanayake’s diplomatic approach. 

The New Delhi’s meeting

After the inaugural proceedings, both leaders discussed their shared interests and possibilities for future corporations. At the New Delhi’s meeting, President Dissanayake did not forget to extend his great gratitude and sincerely appreciated the unwavering support given by India during and after the unprecedented economic crisis in Sri Lanka. Furthermore, President Dissanayake was most receptive, accepting most of Jaishankar’s offers to build bilateral relationships with New Delhi and Colombo. At the meeting with Prime Minister Modi, President Dissanayake assured India by emphasising that “Sri Lanka will not let its land be used in any way that is detrimental to the interest of India”, which is New Delhi’s top-most priority security concern. As a result of this mutual understanding, New Delhi has offered development assistance and a comprehensive bilateral partnership under the joint statement of “fostering partnership for a shared future”, and both leaders affirmed their commitment to a mutually beneficial comprehensive partnership. 

Under the bilateral partnership, New Delhi has agreed to assist Sri Lanka’s economic and social development under the following sectors: trade, port and logistic development, digital infrastructure development, enhancing public sector management (good governance), strengthening energy security, national and maritime security. In order to boost trade-investment potential, both countries have signed an agreement on the double taxation avoidance agreement (DTAA), which will enhance investment opportunities further. Moreover, the Indian government agreed to a strategic transformation from a debt-driven model towards an investment-led partnership, a significant approach for a country like Sri Lanka, which is heavily suffering from a debt trap, to ensure a more sustainable economic recovery. Under the port and transport development, India agreed to the start of a new passenger ferry service between Rameshvaran in India and Talaimannar in Sri Lanka, and the redevelopment of Kankesanthurai port with the grant assistance.

Energy Matters 

Regarding Energy Corporation, the Indian government agreed to establish a higher capacity power grid interconnection between the two countries. Moreover, India has promised a supply of LNG (Liquidized Natural Gas), which is needed for power plants in Sri Lanka. India, UAE, and Sri Lanka will jointly build a multi-product pipeline from India to Sri Lanka for safe and reliable energy supply. Moreover, India will support the Sampur Sri Lanka solar power project and will initiate a joint Development offshore wind power project in the Palk straits, which is a narrowed sea channel that separates India from Sri Lanka. Also, India will assist in the development of the Trincomalee oil tank farm as a regional energy and industrial hub.

In order to enhance good governance in Sri Lanka, India has agreed to train 1500 Sri Lankan administrative officers for their capacity for over five years. 

Moreover, India has agreed to offer 100 scholarships annually to undergraduate students studying at Jaffna and Eastern universities. Both countries have agreed that a joint working group will be set up to implement a digital public infrastructure (DPI) in Sri Lanka. Also, another joint working group will be set up to develop agriculture in Sri Lanka.

Concerning defence corporations, India has agreed to train Sri Lankan defence forces and provide defence equipment. Moreover, both countries have agreed to conduct joint military exercises, maritime surveillance, defence dialogue and exchanges. India will also assist Sri Lanka in developing disaster mitigation and relief rehabilitation capabilities. Apart from that, the Indian government has agreed to develop the Mahawa-Anuradhapura railway to enhance the public transportation system of the country. 

Concerning all these unconditional offers, the arrangement was made for a grand ceremonial welcome to President Dissanayake and his delegation; it depicted that India was desperate to normalize the relationship with Colombo. According to the Indian media, PM Modi has immensely hailed President Dissanayaka’s political leadership and his comprehensive plan to develop the troubled Sri Lankan economy during his visit.  

New Delhi’s Intentions

As far as Indian perspectives, why New Delhi was compelled to normalize its ties with Sri Lanka should be analysed. Many argue that India is currently at a geopolitical risk from both eastern and western neighbouring borders even though India is seeking its stake in international order as a growing economy. Nepal, which is always apprehensive about India’s position over the Kalapani-territorial dispute, is currently closely working with Beijing. Bangladesh is also in a controversy over India’s political and moral support, providing asylum for the outset Prime Minister, Mrs Hazeina, and allegedly getting involved with Hindu minority issues in the post-Hazeina’s era. On the Western side, Pakistan’s political and economic instability and economic dependence over China under the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) have created a security dilemma for New Delhi. Therefore, India is desperate to normalize its ties with disputed nations in the region. New Delhi’s attempt to approach and normalize relations with the Taliban government in Afghanistan and the impending Muizzu government in Maldives can be cited as their strategic move in the region. Under such a situation, despite their ideological differences and historical record, India promptly extended a good hand by providing unconditional support for NPP regimes to secure its interest in the southern part of the South Asian region. By doing so, the New Delhi establishment was eagerly expecting to get a positive response from President Dissanayake that Sri Lankan soil would not be used against Indian national security interests. Therefore, the Indian diplomatic position on President Dissanayake ‘s government should be understood based on regional and international contexts. Thus, it seems that New Delhi’s diplomatic establishment’s mission has been successfully achieved sooner rather than later.

Even though many argued that the diplomatically inexperienced President Dissanayake’s government would not be able to receive political and economic support from India, the delegation concluded its first state mission, portraying its political maturity by receiving an unconditional development assistance package from New Delhi. Choosing India for his first state visits has proven AKD’s political instinct and insight. Being a small island nation located in close proximity to deep socio-cultural and historical ties, Sri Lanka is not in a position to be distanced from India. Historical records during the last decades reveal possible consequences when Colombo goes against Indian national interest. Moreover, President Disanayake has understood India’s pivotal role in bailing Sri Lanka out of its economic and debt crisis. Therefore, with a deep understanding of internal economic conditions and regional and global dynamics, President Dissanayake concluded his mission, accompanied by limited numbers but a well-prepared delegation. Moreover, during the past decades, he was the first leader who started his state visit to New Delhi with tremendous confidence. Not only having an overwhelming majority in the parliament but also the leader who won the mandate of the Tamil minority of the entire country, which is a key concern of New Delhi, were phenomenal factors for strengthening the NPP government’ confidentiality in the negotiation with India.

Most of the previous state’s visits were to entertain the ceremonial visit and provide more opportunities for their political circle to enjoy foreign trips while squandering peoples’ taxed money but returning with empty hands. The opportunistic, unreliable, irrational and inconsistent foreign policy followed by successive regimes has not only tarnished the image of Sri Lanka but also dragged the country into a political and economic dilemma. As far as NPP government perspectives and the international media, President Dissanayake’s first state visit to India was a significant mission compared with previous state leaders’ visits, which secured a win-win situation for both countries. This has emphasized that Sri Lanka required a state leader rather than a politician who played the “saradiel’s diplomacy” in international affairs.  However, based on this first diplomatic encounter and its relative success, it is hard to predict that President Dissanayake is successfully handling his foreign policy. It depends on how he commits to secure his promise to New Delhi while constructively engaging with Beijing, which is the main donor for the Sri Lankan economy and rising power as the leader of the global south. Thus, the future of Sri Lanka will be determined by how he balances the rivalries who are integral players in Sri Lankan affairs by following Sri Lankan-oriented foreign policy.

Professor Chaminda Abeysinghe is a Specially Appointed Professor in Asian Politics at
School of Political Science and Economics in the Meiji University, Tokyo, Japan