Could Sri Lanka take advantage of New Zealand’s defeat to Australia?

Despite Sri Lanka's horror start to the Cricket World Cup 2023, the island nation finds itself still in with a chance for a top-four finish.

Having lost their first three matches of the campaign to South Africa, Pakistan, and Australia, Sri Lanka were able to defeat a flying Dutch side in their fourth game. However, it was the massive victory over England in the fifth match that gave Sri Lanka a realistic chance of making the semi-finals, now that teams like Pakistan, England, and Bangladesh look all but out of the race for the top four.

Currently, Sri Lanka are fifth on the points table with four points from five games. They are scheduled to play Afghanistan, India, Bangladesh, and New Zealand. Four wins in the last four matches would take Sri Lanka to 12 points, which is likely to be sufficient to book a spot in the semi-finals. However, with Sri Lanka due to play red-hot India in Mumbai on November 2, the islanders would have thought about the possibility of still qualifying with ten points.

This was given a major boost on Saturday when Australia clinched a cliffhanger against New Zealand at Dharamsala by five runs.

The Kiwis, who have had a stunning start to the World Cup, have now lost two back-to-back games against India and Australia and find themselves in the third spot with eight points from six games. 

However, things get even more difficult for them in the final three fixtures, with South Africa, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka standing in their way.

Should they lose all three remaining games, Sri Lanka would only need to win three out of four, as New Zealand would remain on eight points while Sri Lanka could reach 10. If New Zealand win one of the games against South Africa or Pakistan and lose their game to Sri Lanka, and both teams finish on ten points, New Zealand would have the advantage with the net run rate, but the net run rate could change within the space of three games.

So how did Australia's victory really help Sri Lanka's cause?

Australia, like Sri Lanka, had a very difficult start to the World Cup, but during their clash with Sri Lanka, Australia found their mojo when they had Sri Lanka bundled out for 209 from 125 for no wickets.

Since then, Australia has gone from strength to strength and defeated Pakistan, the Netherlands, and New Zealand to claim the fourth spot, with eight points just behind New Zealand. However, unlike New Zealand, Australia has three very favourable fixtures to finish off the first round with. They'd face arch-rivals England, who are horribly out of form, on November 4 before meeting Afghanistan and Bangladesh. So, Australia has the potential to finish off with 14 points. Even if they had lost to New Zealand on Saturday, they would have still finished with 12 points with their wins in the last three, which would have nearly ended Sri Lanka's hopes of a semi-final.

However, with this thrilling win over Australia, Sri Lanka now has a clearer path to qualify should they continue to play outstanding cricket because Sri Lanka would now want South Africa and Pakistan to beat New Zealand before they face off against each other on November 9. If New Zealand had won on Saturday, they would have wanted Australia to lose against teams like Bangladesh and Afghanistan, which looks a bit far fetched compared to the scenario they've got now.

Irrespective of all, cricket at the end of the day is a very unpredictable game. No one would have expected the Netherlands to beat South Africa or Sri Lanka to dominate England in the manner in which they did, but it's crystal clear that Sri Lanka has a better pathway to the semi-finals now than it did before. (Harsha Amarasinghe)