Live births decline 20 per cent between pre-and post-pandemic era, deaths increase

• One-quarter of population expected to be above 60 by 2041
• Govt. faces increasing pressure on healthcare, pension schemes, long-term care facilities, social support networks

By Kelum Bandara 

The number of live births has dropped by 20 per cent  between the pre-pandemic and post-pandemic period and the deaths  increased by 30 per cent, an expert said   

Making his remarks during the UNFPA Policy Dialogue on  Population Dynamics, Emeritus Professor of Demography Indralal De Silva  said the live births reported in 2019 stood at 319,000, and it had  declined to 247,000 in 2023 after the Covid-19 pandemic. In the  meantime, he said the number of deaths increased from 146,000 to 181,000  during the period.  

He attributed it to complications from Covid-19 and  vaccination, and reasons such as economic recession that resulted in the  lack of medicines, the use of inferior quality medicines, postponement  of surgeries in the midst of the crisis and nutritional issues.  

Prof. De Silva said the state sector hospitals were  ‘bombarded with an influx of patients’ whereas moneyed patients sought  treatment at expensive private hospitals.   

Asserting that Sri Lankan population is ageing, he said  such a phenomenon could be expected. He said 60 per cent of old people  (above 60) are grappling with at least one non-communicable disease such  as hypertension and heart ailments.   

Priyantha Rathnayake, Deputy Secretary to the Ministry of  Finance, Economic Stabilisation and National Policies, said the  demographic transition underway in Sri Lanka is multifaceted.   

“We are witnessing a decline in fertility rates, an  increase in the proportion of older persons, and changing patterns of  migration. While these shifts present challenges, they also offer unique  opportunities for innovative and sustainable growth.  

Declining fertility, while a sign of progress, as families  have more control over their reproductive choices, it also presents  challenges. A shrinking working-age population could mean reduced  economic productivity and an increasing dependency ratio. This shift  could put additional strain on our social services and economic systems.  So, we need to rethink how we approach labour, productivity, and  economic growth.  

Our response to low fertility must be focused on  advancing gender equality, ensuring equal opportunities in the  workforce, and guaranteeing comprehensive services including sexual and  reproductive health and rights for all.  
 In 2012, the population of older persons 60 years and  above was 12.6 per cent, and it is projected to increase to a quarter of  the population by 2041,” he said.   

An ageing population, while a testament to improving health  and longevity, places increasing pressure on our healthcare system,  pension schemes, and long-term care facilities. Our healthcare systems,  pension schemes, and social support networks will need to adapt quickly  to meet the needs of an ageing society,” he said.