CEB engineers caution against govt.’s renewable energy plan

• Says govt.’s 70% renewable energy target by 2030 unfeasible due to limited foreign exchange reserves 
• Warns of possible power cuts; high-cost emergency power   

By Nishel Fernando
The Ceylon Electricity Board Engineers’ Union (CEBEU) claims that the government’s aggressive target to generate 70 percent of the electricity required through renewable energy by 2030 is unfeasible, as it needs US $ 3-4 billion investment in upgrading the country’s existing electricity network over the coming years. 

Addressing a press briefing held in Thalawathugoda yesterday, CEBEU President Eng. Saumya Kumarawadu warned that the country might be moving towards a possible power crisis, due to the government’s policy. 

He made a direct appeal to President Gotabaya Rajapaksa to reconsider the government’s power generation plan.
Kumarawadu noted that the President’s election manifesto published in Sinhala doesn’t contain any specific targets in terms of renewable energy generation, with only an emphasis on maximising efforts in environment-friendly power generation, including LNG. 

However, he expressed his confusion over the 80 percent renewable energy target (by 2030) mentioned in the English translation of the manifesto.  

However, the government is yet to gazette the current policy that aims to generate 70 percent of electricity from renewable energy sources by 2030. 

The CEBEU estimates that the government would have to invest US $ 1.7 billion in upgrading the transmission lines and further US $ 1.2-1.5 billion in storage facilities to meet the 70 percent target by 2030.

“To accommodate a large amount of wind and solar, a huge amount of funds should be invested upfront to upgrade the existing electricity network. The government will have to invest billions of US dollars during the initial period for new 220kV and 400kV transmission lines, 1000-1500MW of batteries, gas turbines/diesel engines (ramping up and down with variation of solar and wind), ICT (smart grid concepts), other special equipment for the system required to stabilise the frequency and voltage of the systems, etc. At a time the country is running with a limited amount of forex reserves, investing billions of US dollars in a very short span of time (during the period of 2022-2026) will not be feasible,” the CEBEU elaborated. 

As an alternative, Kumarawadu said that the Ceylon Electricity Board (CEB) submitted a fresh long-term generation expansion plan this week, which targets to meet 70 percent electricity generation from ‘clean energy’ sources, including 20 percent LNG sources by 2030.

He stressed that coal remains to be the cheapest power source and estimated that the CEB could save Rs.50-60 billion by installing another generator at the Norochcholai Coal Power Plant.

However, he dismissed the claims that the CEB plans to set up new coal power plants in the country, apart from the proposed generator at the existing Norochcholai Coal Power Plant.

Meanwhile, Kumarawadu blamed the current losses of the CEB for the delay in commissioning the proposed power plants by the government. He claimed that the country lost a record Rs.900 billion, due to the delay in commissioning the Norochcholai Coal Power Plant in due time and a further Rs.200 billion, due to the cancellation of the Sampur Coal Power Plant.

He warned of potential power cuts or emergency power purchases or both, if the current government adopts a similar approach. 

“If the CEB is forced to adopt 70 percent of generation from renewable energy sources by 2030, 950MW of thermal power plants under the current LTGP 2018-2037 to be commissioned before 2030, will have to be suspended.

Usually, a significant lead time is required for activities such as acquisition of lands, EIA, tendering, etc. for a large-scale low-cost thermal power project. So, in case if this renewable energy plan doesn’t work, there’s no way we could revert back to the original plan in a short period of time. Such a scenario could lead to power cuts or purchase of high-cost emergency power, running into billions of rupees,” he said.