Full recovery in tourism to pre-pandemic level appears at least 5 years away

Full recovery of the tourism trade to its pre-pandemic levels appears to stretch through 2025 as authorities and other stakeholders have increasingly come to the realisation that any recovery is gradual and contingent on how the virus would evolve as last attempts to revive the industry was repeatedly buffeted by new virus waves. 

According to a recent re-projection made by the Central Bank on tourism sector earnings, they have been utmost conservative in making projections during the five years through 2025 when the industry briefly reaches its pre-pandemic peak level achieved in 2018, prior to the Easter Sunday deadly attacks. 

In 2018, earnings from the tourism trade reached an all- time high of US$ 4.4 billion and it was poised to make strong advances with the country being listed as the preferred destination for travel by several global travel and leisure publications. But the Easter Sunday attacks came in the way while the pandemic decimated the chances from 2020 onwards. 

During the first seven month in 2021, earnings from tourism was at a paltry US$ 26.0 million and have been estimated to be no more than US$ 200 million by the time the year closes. 

For 2022, the Central Bank projects US$ 2.0 billion in earnings, rising up to US$ 3.6 billion in 2023 and US$ 4.0 billion in 2024 before reaching the 2018 levels only in 2025, signalling a long wait before the trade finally returns to normalcy. 

With the loss of nearly US$ 10 billion in foreign income from trade during the two years to 2021 and at least another US$ 3.0 billion lost in direct investments in the same period under the most conservative projections, Sri Lankans are now compelled to face severe hardships in their day-to-day economy with imported commodities in short supply and exorbitant prices on everything from food staples to gasoline to other discretionary goods. 

As going gets tough, Sri Lankans are finally coming into grips with the true reality that economic lockdowns not only hurt everyone but also hinder the fight against the virus as equipment related to testing, millions of vaccines, other drugs and medical equipment required to treat numerous other ailments are purchased from abroad, spending millions of dollars.