Misleading COVID-19 death numbers estimated to have caused Rs.100bn economic loss

• Suspicions rife as to whether grim report with highest number of deaths was presented to prevent ending the lockdowns
• Health and other experts blamed for ignoring options with less economic implications in containing epidemic

In what could be the biggest travesty to-date, it transpired last week that the data compilers had provided misleading daily COVID-19 related death numbers to the country’s executive president prompting him to reverse the lockdown order removal on June 11, causing the loss of over Rs.100 billion in economic output. 

Sri Lanka’s COVID task force on June 10 announced to end the lockdowns on June 14 as earlier planned, but the decision was reversed the following day to extend restrictions through June 21 after data were presented to the President Gotabaya Rajapaksa citing over 100 COVID-19 deaths on June 11, causing alarm.

But a correct analysis of the death numbers showed that there had been only 15 deaths on June 11 and the report had been compiled including deaths occurred as early as in February.

“We were to re-open the country on June 14. But suddenly we got reports of 101 deaths. When you hear this, anybody gets alarmed. Then I asked the intelligence service to go door-to-door and analyse this number properly,” said President Rajapaksa responding to severe allegations levelled against him on the persistent lockdowns and his sudden change of decisions which inconvenienced the public.   

“If you report deaths on June 11 that number should contain deaths occurred from June 10 midnight and June 11 midnight. But the first reported death had occurred on February 6, cremated on February 6 and had also been issued with a death certificate. 

The next was a 67-year old from Homagama who had died on April 1 but reported on June 11 and he also formed the 101 deaths given here,” he remarked. 

“And the ninth and the tenth (deaths) are the same person. That is also part of 101 (deaths),” the furious President said.

It isn’t clear yet whether this was done intently to mislead and prevent the authorities from re-opening the country, and how long this practice dates back to. Suspicions particularly rise why a grim report with highest number of deaths was presented no sooner the government decided to end the lockdowns on June 14. 

 “Just because I looked at this (report), the experts who analyse this on the television aren’t aware of this,” President Rajapaksa said, while commenting on health experts who go on the TV to ask people to stay at home to slow the spread of the virus despite over 4.5 million people depend on daily incomes. 

“So, when we look at these numbers and make an analysis, it gives us a totally wrong impression. When we compile the numbers accurately, there were only 15 deaths on June 11,” President Rajapaksa noted. 

The cost of the lost economic output alone to the Sri Lankan economy in a single day of closure is estimated at above Rs.15 billion, according to Ajith Nivard Cabraal, the State Minister of Finance, Capital Markets and State Enterprise Reforms.

Hence, the week’s extension of the lockdowns due to the erroneous report could have caused over Rs.100 billion loss to the economic output during the week that ended on June 20. 

Accordingly, the entire lost economic output during the two months since April 23 through June 20 could be close to a trillion rupees as the Sri Lankan economy operated at sub-dormancy at most as seen from the high frequency data, which turned drastically sour. 

While investigating how bogus numbers were presented to the country’s Executive President, another investigation should be conducted whether health and other experts recommended lockdowns as the only way to deal with the pandemic when they had other tools and options, which would have had less implications on the economy and people’s livelihoods.