Oil heads for weekly loss as recession fears trump tight supply

• Brent heads for fourth consecutive weekly drop
• Supply tightness more likely to intensify from here -PVM

REUTERS: Oil slipped in volatile trade yesterday and was heading for a weekly decline as concern over a potential recession-driven demand downturn outweighed tight global supplies.

Central banks are raising interest rates to tame inflation, spurring fears that rising borrowing costs could stifle growth, while mass COVID-19 testing in Shanghai this week stoked fears of potential lockdowns that could also hit oil demand. 

Brent crude fell 36 cents or 0.3 percent, to US $ 104.29 a barrel by 0820 GMT and U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude dropped 50 cents or 0.5 percent, to US $ 102.23.

Both benchmarks were set to register weekly declines - Brent’s fourth in succession and WTI retreating after a gain the previous week. Prices had tumbled on Tuesday, when Brent’s US $ 10.73 drop was the contract’s third-biggest fall since it started trading in 1988.

“With more rate hikes to come and the U.S. likely in a technical recession, top-side market ambitions could be quite limited,” Stephen Innes, Managing Director at SPI Asset Management, told Reuters.

In focus yesterday will be the latest U.S. jobs data, which is expected to show that non-farm payrolls increased by 268,000 in June. 

However, oil prices have soared over the first half of the year. Brent crude came close to the record high of US $ 147 after Russia launched its invasion of Ukraine in February, adding to supply concerns that some analysts expect to worsen.

“Economic worries may have roiled oil prices this week but the market is still flashing bullish signals. This is because supply tightness is more likely to intensify from this point than to ease,” said Stephen Brennock of oil broker PVM.

Western bans on Russian oil exports have kept prices supported and sparked a re-routing of flows while the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies are struggling to deliver on pledged production increases.