Over two-thirds expect rupee/dollar rate to surpass Rs.325 by end April

More than two-thirds of the people in Sri Lanka believe the rupee would further depreciate against the dollar after it shed 50 percent of its value in a matter of three weeks since the Central Bank’s botched currency float, which sent prices spiralling up.

According to an opinion poll conducted by Feedback.lk, a research and data analytics firm operating in Sri Lanka, 68 percent of the public who participated in the poll expects the rupee to depreciate above Rs.325 for a dollar while 18 percent believe it will settle between Rs.300 and Rs.325.  

The poll was conducted to gauge the expectations for the dollar value in rupees by the end of April. 
A rupee value of 325 works out to roughly 63 percent decline in the value of the rupee within a span of seven weeks and this would be the sharpest fall in the value of any currency in the world if it were to happen. 

The kerb market rates already top Rs.400, according to sources as the Central Bank ramps up its crackdown on errant money changers since last week.  But others are skeptical if crackdown would offer any help as money changing could still happen on the sly. 

Meanwhile, 53 percent of financial market participants of the poll are of the view that the rupee would fall below Rs.325 to a dollar while 26 percent of them believe that rupee would settle between Rs.300 and Rs.325. 

This means more troubles for the masses as inflation, which is already at 18.7 percent, could go through the roof. 
The Monetary Board, which is meeting today (Monday), is expected to deliver another 100 basis points or more hike in policy rates to temper the inflation impulses by crushing demand, and potentially plunging the economy 
into a recession.