Pandemic-driven learning losses could erase 1.5% of GDP in OECD countries: economist

• Says impact could be considerably larger for low-income countries

The pandemic-induced school closures and the resulting loss of learning are expected to cost 1.5 percent of the future economic output of an OECD (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development) country, with the impact running deeper elsewhere among countries with low incomes and access to poor infrastructure, according to an economist. 

“We know that there is a close relationship between the school education and economic outcomes but also outcomes like well-being and health. There is some evidence in the OECD countries suggesting that, that (loss of learning) might yield a 1.5 percent lower GDP,” said Hans Sievertsen, an economist at the University of Bristol, in 
South-West England.  

Participating in an episode of Business Daily documentaries produced by BBC last week, Sievertsen said the impact could be considerably larger for low-income countries, where resources such as access to stable Internet connection and access to devices, which can access remote 
learning, are scarce or difficult. 

And the impact of school closures on the disadvantaged families is much harsher, as they have neither education to facilitate remote learning to their children nor the means to get access.

As Sri Lanka falls outside the OECD country block, which largely consists of countries with higher economic well-being, the school closures and the resulting loss of learning for over a year could deal a severe blow to its future economic prospects such as lack of skills.  

Even prior to the pandemic, Sri Lanka had an acute shortage of skills. Lengthy school closures could aggravate the situation, as the country will not have people with the required skills to power its economic growth. On top of that, Sri Lanka already has an ageing population.

At a time when building a skilled workforce is no longer a choice as part of the country’s broader structural reform agenda, keeping home Sri Lanka’s schoolgoing age children for over an year and counting could further plunge the country down its economic precipice.  

On the other hand, the school closures already have taken a severe toll on the existing workforce because parents are forced to stay at home looking after their children learning through remote means from home, as many have no one else to leave their children with.  

Lack of peer interaction, physical activity and absence of in-person teacher assistance are a few cons often cited by children who are undergoing distant learning and they are yearning to return to classroom learning.    

“My message would be that we should really priorities our children. And when I say our children, it’s the entire world because we might really focus on businesses and unemployment as these children might get affected for the rest of their lives,” said Sievertsen, stressing that the subsequent years of schooling and learning will not benefit what one loses from one year of loss of schooling.