Earthquake sends tremors through Turkey’s fragile economy

AFP - Turkey was already battling runaway inflation and relying on rich allies for funding to keep its economy afloat when a massive earthquake killed tens of thousands, razed entire cities and left millions needing urgent help.
Now, it must pour billions of dollars into rebuilding 11 southeastern provinces flattened by the February 6 tremor - the worst disaster of its post-Ottoman history.
That money will have to come on top of the billions of dollars in election promises that President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has made in the run-up to crucial polls still tentatively planned for May 14.

All this cash could turbo-charge consumer spending and industrial production - two key indicators of economic growth.
The problem for Erdogan, however, is that Turkey is very short of funds.
The central bank’s vanishing coffers have been replenished by assistance from Russia and oil-rich Gulf states, which has helped Turkey spend tens of billions of dollars propping up the lira in the past few years.
But economists believe that money is only sufficient to keep Turkey’s finances in order - and the troubled lira from collapsing until the May polls.

Now, Erdogan must repair some US$ 84.1 billion in quake damage, according to an estimate from a prominent business group.
Other experts’ estimates are more conservative, putting the total closer to US$ 10 billion. With elections in mind, Erdogan has already promised to provide new homes to the millions affected within a year.
Should he find the cash, leaning heavily again on foreign donors, Erdogan will need to allocate much of it to the construction sector to rebuild parts of Turkey from the ground up. Although contractors are now being blamed for following lax standards that allowed so many buildings to crumble, Erdogan relied on the sector to modernise much of the country with airports, roads and hospitals.

“The boost to output from reconstruction activities may largely offset the negative impact of the disruption to economic activity,” the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) said.
For the overall economy, at least, there are glimmers of hope. The area affected is one of Turkey’s least developed, contributing only nine percent to gross domestic product (GDP). But Turkey’s agricultural production could take a hit.

Unay Tamgac, associate professor of economics at Ankara’s TOBB ETU University, said the region creates 14.3 percent of Turkey’s total agriculture, fishing and forestry output. The region is a global exporter of food such as apricots, she added, warning there could be a knock-on effect on prices.
The UN’s Food and Agriculture Organisation has warned of disruptions to basic food production in Turkey and Syria.
The quake also damaged energy facilities, infrastructure, transportation, irrigation and logistics, added Tamgac.