11 Jul 2024 - {{hitsCtrl.values.hits}}
MP Rajapaksa claims that during his tenure as president (2005-2014), there was an (1) unbroken nine-year economic boom, and (2) there was no difficulty in paying off debts.
To verify these claims, FactCheck.lk consulted data from the Central Bank of Sri Lanka (CBSL) and Ministry of Finance annual reports, IMF world economic outlook 2024 and IMF staff report 2009.
Claim (1): An ‘economic boom’ might be understood broadly as a consistent period of growth that significantly exceeds the average growth of the previous period. From 1995-2004, Sri Lanka’s average GDP growth rate was 5.1%. The average GDP growth rate from 2005-2014 was 6.6%. This significant average increase in growth supports the claim of an ‘economic boom’ from 2005-2014.
Claim (2): This claim cannot be supported, due to two reasons.
First, the IMF staff report 2009 noted that Sri Lanka’s debt situation was “unsustainable…in the absence of corrective steps.” Subsequently, Sri Lanka entered a Stand-By Agreement (SBA) with the IMF in 2009, indicating that the country faced difficulties in managing its debt. The report and agreement are evidence of ‘difficulties’ in managing debt during the MP’s tenure as president.
Second, economists tend to identify the reducing of difficulty in paying debt as a consistent decline or stability in at least two economic indicators: (i) the interest cost-to-revenue ratio (reflects debt service pressure on the budget), and (ii) the debt-to-GDP ratio (indicates debt burden of the country).
Exhibit 1 shows how these indicators don’t support the claim. Broadly, debt pressures on one or both indicators increased pre-IMF programme, stabilised or declined during, and increased again after its conclusion. These indicators were somewhat volatile between 2005-2014.
The up and down movements in the above indicators, and Sri Lanka’s need to enter an IMF arrangement in 2009, undermine the claim about ease of repaying debt.
In sum, the data supports the MP’s characterisation of the 2005-2014 period as a time of economic boom; but does not support the claim of having “no difficulties” in servicing debt.
Therefore, we classify the MP’s claim as PARTLY TRUE.
*FactCheck.lk’s verdict is based on the most recent information that is publicly accessible. As with every fact check, if new information becomes available, FactCheck.lk will revisit the assessment.
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