MP Ganesan right when he spoke, on gap between estate sector and the rest

The MP in his statement effectively makes two claims on the gap between the estate sector and the rest of the country: (1) that poverty is almost double, and (2) that food insecurity in the estate sector is between 20% and 30% more in the estate sector than in urban and rural sectors. 

Claim 1: The MP seems to draw from World Bank (WB) Sri Lanka Development Update October 2022 edition, for this claim.

The WB projections, based on microsimulations, estimate the poverty rate as having increased to 25.6% in 2022 (it was estimated at 13.1% in 2021). Disaggregated estimates have the poverty rate in the estate sector as 53.7% (See Exhibit 1). These figures are in line with the numbers and argument presented by the MP.

Claim 2: The MP seems to draw from the World Food Programme (WFP) Sri Lanka Food Security Monitoring Face-to-Face Food Security Survey Briefs, for this claim. 
There are two categories of food insecurity: 1) moderately food insecure, and 2) severely food insecure. The WFP survey data that was published at the time the MP made his statement was for August 2022. There the estimated level of total food insecurity (addition of the two categories) was 50.6% for estate, 43% for urban, and 34.3% for rural. These figures align with the numbers quoted by the MP. (See Exhibit 2).

The MP’s claims on the higher rates of poverty, and food-security in the estate sector are correct – based on the best estimates available from the only sources that had formal disaggregated estimates, at that time. 

Therefore, we classify his statement as TRUE. 

Additional Note: On food security, the latest available surveys of WFP (at the time of publishing this fact check) are for November 2022, and are: 33.4% for estate, 27.5% for urban, and 38.8% for rural. That means, food insecurity in the rural sector has overtaken food insecurity in the estate sector. Therefore, as of November 2022, the food insecurity situation no longer aligns with the MP’s claim.

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