Minefield of economic uncertainty with no vaccine in sight

With more than 270,000 new cases daily and around 6,000 deaths daily, globally, most world leaders are pursuing a highly uncertain best-case scenario — the discovery of vaccines or a drug — while pushing for the pandemic-controlling options that are available and tested.  They are however only part of a whole package of steps to save ourselves from the pandemic and the world economy contracting further. 

Meanwhile, the head of the World Health Organisation (WHO) has said that while there is hope for a vaccine against COVID-19, one might never be found. Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus told a news briefing that there is “no silver bullet at the moment – and there might never be”.

Speaking from the headquarters in Geneva, the WHO chief said the work on immunisation was progressing and a number of vaccines are now in phase three clinical trials and we all hope to have a number of effective vaccines that can help prevent people from infection.

Tedros warned, “For now, stopping outbreaks comes down to the basics of public health standards and disease control: testing, isolating and treating patients and tracing and quarantining their contacts.”

“Like an optimistic stockbroker, some policymakers are banking on a future vaccine that, at best, may arrive in early 2021, while people are sick and dying now and the world economy continues to wobble on an unclear path forward to economic and social stability.”

There is a formula that can reduce the number of cases and deaths right now — that is a programme to test, trace and isolate people who are infected. 

Increasing evidence shows that the coronavirus can be managed if everyone follows simple rules while in public: wearing proper masks, staying at least five feet away from others and avoiding large indoor crowds.

Economic management 
The health crisis is hard for economic policymakers and for political leaders because the impact is huge and the outcome is largely uncertain. The world was used to economic factors causing an economic recession. The paths were often clearer once the underlying economic causes were addressed through the Central Bank policy interventions. 

In this instance, the crisis was caused by a virus, so no central bank or the IMF can make it disappear. The central banks of the world will now have to learn to live with the uncertainty it brings by regularly disrupting their operating models to help economies to live with the uncertainties future pandemic and environmental disasters will continue to heap on us, given our lifestyles. 

If the vaccine comes fast, the world economy will see limited structural change and the top priority for governments would be to support firms to survive and protect jobs until normality returns. But if it takes years until a vaccine is found, then big economic changes will need to happen to keep the world economy afloat.

Conclusion 
It is very clear the world can’t sit around waiting for vaccines and medicines to come. For example, Australia had more success than many other countries in tackling COVID-19 but an outbreak in Victoria’s state capital has pushed the nation to its worst point yet. More than half of the nation’s total 18,300 cases have been recorded just last month. There have been 215 deaths. 

In the United States for example, new cases are rising rather than declining. Many countries that believed they were past the worst are now grappling with new outbreaks. Some countries that were less affected in the earliest weeks are now seeing escalating numbers of cases and deaths. 

It may be very discouraging to hear from the WHO that a vaccine may be still far away. 

But, we already have many of the most effective tools we need to keep our people safe by following the basic public health standards. We need to use them. On the other hand, the WHO must work towards a vaccine and a cure even while nations take steps to drive down the new cases and deaths.