Our export target should be over 100% of GDP: Harsha
04 Aug 2015 - {{hitsCtrl.values.hits}}
Following is the speech by Deputy Minister of Policy Planning Dr. Harsha de Silva, delivered at the 18th Annual General Meeting of the Exporters Association of Sri Lanka.
The Chiarman when he was quoting John F Kennedy said that the problems in the world cannot be solved by skeptics and cynics, whose horizons are limited by the obvious realities. You need men who can dream of things that never were. Now that is true.
You have to be able to dream of things that never were. I am no John F Kennedy but I have dreams of things that never were. When I was asked to speak at the forum at the EDB, I basically blasted the Chairman and said ‘dump this in the garbage bin, I don’t want to listen to this’. Because he talked about a US$ 20 billion export business by 2020. So I asked him, what that translates in terms of percentage of GDP, because the problem in this country is the focus on exports. Since the percentage of exports has been coming down continuously. He referred to a figure of 17 percent in 2010 and 14 percent in 2014. But if you go back, Mr. Chairman you will see that it was 34 percent in 2000 so it has been coming down.
That is a lack of focus. The lack of focus is a lack of vision and that is why you need people to think differently. I was speaking at Rotary Club this afternoon at lunch, Mr. Kahapitiya was also there and I referred to our game plan for this country for the next five years at least. And that game plan includes plugging Sri Lanka into the world. If you followed me for the last five years you would have seen a consistency in my policy where I have always promoted exports and I have mentioned in more than one occasion that we have to concentrate on exports, exports and exports.
I have had many run-ins with the then President of Sri Lanka, Mahinda Rajapaksa, that his focus was not appropriate. I have had a number of arguments with the former governor and secretary to the treasury that their focus was misplaced.
And I used to ask in consultative committees, Mr. President, again we’ve seen a drop in exports in comparison to the GDP and either the governor or secretary would jump and say ‘ah no no, we have other things to do as well. So exports is also part of the economy, you must understand that we have to build roads and this and that.”
No future without exports
Wrong. Completely wrong. That is the wrong thing that they did. The focus must be on exports. They must understand that we have no future without exports. If you can’t understand that, go away. Give it to people who understand that. And my thoughts on who is to be the next Prime Minister on the 18th of August, understands that. That is the reason why we are focusing on exports.
If you look at the policy statement that is presented in the manifesto, it is very clear. That we want to become the most competitive economy in this part of the world. The word competitive economy naturally suggests that it is a comparison between and among countries. When we say, most competitive, it means in relation to whom? Most competitive in relation to our competitors. So we are not looking at Sri Lanka as a Sri Lanka, the Island nation of 20 million people. We are looking at Sri Lanka as a dynamic player in the global place. That is the difference.
Sri Lanka cannot be considered in isolation. Sri Lanka must be considered together with a list of countries who have taken advantage of the imagine dynamic of the growth or trade. Be it Dubai, Malaysia or Vietnam.
One of those slides, the 17th or 18th, the one that showed the Malaysian – Sri Lanka at the same level on expenditure and R&D, absolutely the same place about maybe 10 years ago and how it has now become 10 times what we are. Look at that slide again.
I mean, that is focus. The Malaysians understood that you have to focus on exports, competitive value added exports. So the gain will show hopefully on the 17th when we are elected. If we are not, the gain will not change. Then we can go back to the blurred focus.
Maybe I need two glasses, I don’t know. So no, I am going to pull up the Chairman once again because what I asked the chairman was 20 Billion by 2020 is what? What does that mean? Then he said it means the same thing as 10 billion in 2014. I said that it’s not worth. Because the focus is there if we are there at the same place if we are at 14.9 percent of GDP. How did this go to 50 billion, its two and half times 20 billion you showed me two months ago?
So I want to ask you the question, how did this happen. How did you change the target from 20 to 50? I can understand 20 to 25, but I can’t understand how we can go from 20 to 50. Sure had we for crying out loud, the UNP is going rock this . We have to have a party. Because the only thing that is changed is that UNP is coming to office. That is the only thing that has changed. Nothing else. The expenditure is the same, your tea exports are the same, and your other exports are the same. Your IT exports are the same. The only damn thing that has changed is that we are in office.
So if that is the kind of confidence you ladies and gentlemen have in us. I would just say bye and go back and address some other meeting where I have to convince people to vote for me. So I think we have already convinced all of you that the only the change that has taken place is the change in people who really do believe in you.
I say with sincerity, it’s not a joke. We understand that it is you who will drive this economy. And it is really sad to note that while the entire export is only US$ 10 billion dollars, which is multiplied five times in the next time that is very double.
A sad story
The remittances have now surpassed almost US$ 7 billion and it’s a sad story. You know it’s really not what we want. Out of this US$ 10 billion exports, look at how much value added exports, US$ 5 billion in textiles and apparels. Value added might half of that. So how much of value do we bring in these exports.
What is the net export? That is what you need to consider, because the net export of the remittances are of the hard work of the poor, lower end workers particularly mothers, wives, sisters who are really being tortured and killed. They have also committed suicide.
This is not something we should be happy about. And I really didn’t like the word ‘rata viru’ which the previous government called them, as if they were giving them some honor. But it was really using them to make ends meet. They are not ‘rata viru’ they should look after these people. Just this morning, I dropped into my office and this lady came and basically sad story that her brother’s wife was stuck in some holding centre in some Middle Eastern country and if I could call the ambassador and bring her down? I can’t do that. But that’s the reality. So going forward.
One promise
I will give you one promise. And that is our focus will be on exports. You wanted to be included, Mr. Chairman in designing and developing export policies.
I invite you to be a part of that and that is the way we are going to be moving forward, it should be consensus-driven, it should be win-win, it should be addressing the issues, like Bandula said in the beginning when he said thank you. Because you are the people who are creating the jobs and bringing the dollars. But if we can’t listen to you, why do we exist.
We will not guide you but facilitate exports and you need men who can dream of things that never were. I would like to see the exports to GDP in the next; I don’t know how many years, but to surpass the GDP. That means more than 100 percent of GDP. That should be our aim. Not the 20, 30 or 50, but exports should be more than 100 percent of GDP. . If we can get there, I was just telling over lunch, that Singapore is 250 percent of its GDP, Hong Kong is 300 percent of its GDP. We don’t need to get there right away. Let’s have a target. Hundred percent of GDP. Think about it. . If you have a dream like that then we can really think about completely different way of looking at exports. Completely out of the box. Because you can’t just have plaster solutions, you can’t just gradually build this up. We are in serious trouble. We have to do something serious now, some massive surgery is required.
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