Migration, low fertility, ageing population- poses demographic challenges to Sri Lanka

• The decline in fertility is intertwined with another demographic shift, the rapid ageing of the population by 2041

By Kelum Bandara   

Migration - along with low fertility rate and ageing population - adds another layer of complexity to Sri Lanka’s demographic crisis,an expert said.  

Country Representative of the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) Sri Lanka Kunle Adeniyi said though the annual outflow of Sri Lankan labour migrants, predominantly to the Middle East, brings in vital remittances, averaging US $ 7 billion per year, it also leads to brain drain and family separation, with significant economic and social repercussions.  

Making his remarks during a policy dialogue, titled “Shaping the Future: Population Dynamics in Sri Lanka,” organised by the Ministry of Finance, Economic Stabilisation, and National Policies, in collaboration with the UNFPA ) , he said Sri Lanka, like many nations around the world, is navigating through significant demographic transitions. 

“These changes, characterized by declining fertility, an aging population, and evolving migration patterns are reshaping the country’s socio-economic landscape. While these trends offer opportunities, they also present profound challenges that could impede sustainable development if not addressed with strategic foresight.  
Let’s begin by acknowledging the backdrop against which these dynamics are unfolding. Sri Lanka has made notable progress in areas such as healthcare, education and economic opportunities. These advancements have contributed to progress in living standards and life expectancy, but they have also brought about a sharp decline in fertility rates. Sri Lanka’s Total Fertility Rate of 5.3 children per woman in 1953, dropped to just 1.97 in 2023, well below the replacement level.  

This decline in fertility is intertwined with another demographic shift, the rapid ageing of the population. By 2041, one in four Sri Lankans is projected to be over the age of 60. This transition, while reflective of improved healthcare, presents a challenge that is exacerbated by Sri Lanka’s lower per capita income and less developed social institutions compared to other countries experiencing similar trends,” he said.