China faces declining favorability in key countries

2023 witnessed a significant shift in global public perception of China, with negative sentiment on the rise across numerous countries. This trend, driven by a complex interplay of geopolitical tensions, human rights concerns, and economic anxieties, paints a nuanced picture of how the world currently views the Asian giant.

The escalating rivalry between China and the United States undoubtedly played a major role. Issues like Taiwan, the South China Sea, and China's growing military assertiveness fueled anxieties in the Asia-Pacific region. Countries like Japan, Australia, and Vietnam saw a noticeable decline in favorability towards China. In Europe, concerns over China's growing influence in Central and Eastern Europe, coupled with its stance on the Ukraine war, further eroded positive sentiment.

The 2023 Chicago Council Survey finds Americans more concerned about the rise of China than at any point since the end of the Cold War. 

A majority of Americans (58%) view the development of China as a world power as a critical threat to the interest of the United States. This is the highest-recorded level of concern since the Council first asked the question in 1990. This year also marks the first time since 2002 that at least a narrow majority of Republicans (71%), Independents (53%), and Democrats (52%) all view China’s rise as a critical threat.

In addition to viewing Beijing’s rise as a threat to the United States, Americans no longer trust China to handle global problems. Today only 19 percent of Americans say they have a great deal (3%) or a fair amount (16%) of confidence in China to deal responsibly with world problems, a negative assessment that is shared across party lines. This represents a sharp decline from 2018, when four in 10 Americans (41%) had at least some confidence in China to responsibly handle global problems.  

The situation in Taiwan is perhaps the most sensitive, with public sentiment towards China shaped by the constant threat of military invasion and concerns about political unification. In a 2023 poll by the National Chengchi University, only 2.4% of Taiwanese respondents identified with China, while 85.8% identified solely as Taiwanese. 

The Chinese Communist Party's (CCP) aggressive rhetoric and military exercises near Taiwan have significantly heightened anxieties among Taiwanese people about Beijing's ultimate goal of reunification.

Taiwan's embrace of democracy and human rights stands in stark contrast to the authoritarian rule of the CCP, further widening the perceived ideological gap. Increasing recognition of Taiwan's distinct identity and concerns about Chinese aggression have led to greater international support for the island nation, which resonates with the Taiwanese public.

While China continues to pressure Taiwan internationally and militarily, the strong sense of national identity and unwavering support from key allies suggest that public sentiment towards China is unlikely to change significantly in the near future.

A recent Cabinet Office survey in Japan paints a stark picture of deteriorating public sentiment towards China. In 2023, 86.7% of respondents expressed unfriendliness towards China, a significant increase from 81.8% in the previous year. This sentiment can be attributed to several factors, including:

Beijing's decision to ban Japanese seafood imports in response to the planned release of treated wastewater from the crippled Fukushima nuclear power plant into the Pacific Ocean sparked considerable public anger in Japan.

Ongoing frictions over disputed islands in the East China Sea continue to strain relations. Memories of World War II atrocities committed by Japan under colonial rule remain a sensitive topic in China, impacting public perception.

These factors have contributed to a record low of 68.2% of Japanese respondents believing that Japan-China ties are important for both countries, highlighting a growing concern about the future of the relationship.

Sri Lanka's relationship with China is complex, marked by significant economic investments but also concerns about geopolitical influence. Increasing dependence on Chinese loans for infrastructure projects has fueled anxieties about potential debt traps and economic vulnerability. Chinese involvement in large-scale development projects has raised concerns about land displacement and environmental impact. Sri Lanka's strategic location in the Indian Ocean has made it a focal point in the growing rivalry between China and the United States, leading to concerns about being caught in the crossfire.

China's human rights record, particularly its treatment of ethnic minorities in Xinjiang and its crackdown on dissent in Hong Kong, continued to draw international criticism. This issue resonated strongly in Western democracies, where public opinion polls revealed increased concerns about China's internal practices. In Canada, for instance, a survey found that 72% of respondents viewed China's human rights record unfavorably.

The global economic slowdown, coupled with concerns about China's trade practices and debt burdens, also contributed to the negative sentiment. Countries heavily reliant on Chinese investment, such as some African nations, grappled with rising debt levels and perceived unfair trade deals. This, along with anxieties about China's potential economic slowdown, cast a shadow on its attractiveness as a partner.

It's crucial to note that the decline in positive sentiment towards China is not uniform across the globe. In some developing countries, China's infrastructure investments and economic aid programs continue to find favor. Countries in Africa and Latin America, for instance, often hold more nuanced views, acknowledging both concerns and opportunities stemming from Chinese engagement.