Despite ending one-child policy China’s population falls for 2nd year

BEIJING, China: China's population witnessed a decline of two million people in 2023, marking the second consecutive annual decrease.

According to the government's recent announcement, this trend comes in the wake of a seven-year continuous drop in birth rates and a significant increase in deaths following the end of COVID-19 restrictions.

The number of deaths surged by 690,000 to reach 11.1 million, more than double the previous year's increase. The aging population and widespread COVID-19 outbreaks, beginning in December 2022 and extending into February of the following year, contributed to this significant rise in mortality.

China's total population now stands at 1.4 billion, as reported by the statistics bureau.

Despite government incentives and the relaxation of the one-child policy to allow up to three children in recent years, women are having fewer babies. This trend, coupled with longer life expectancy due to improved healthcare, results in China's population gradually aging, potentially hindering future economic growth.

Demographers anticipate that the population decline will persist for decades, even if the fertility rate experiences a rebound. Zuo Xuejin, a prominent demographer and former executive vice president of the Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences, estimates that the proportion of the population aged 65 or older could double to exceed 30 percent by 2050.

To address these demographic shifts, the Chinese government has released guidelines focused on developing the "silver" economy and enhancing the well-being of older citizens. Initiatives include expanding geriatric hospitals and nursing care, promoting products suitable for the elderly, combating scams targeting seniors, and simplifying access to technology like television.

Local governments, too, have begun offering incentives for additional children. Some regions, such as Inner Mongolia, provide monetary incentives for having a second or third child, along with extended paid maternity leave for mothers.

China's transition from population control policies to encouraging births has faced challenges, as many couples delay marriage or opt not to have children due to the high cost of education and competitive academic environments. The population of women of child-bearing age has also declined.

While some experts predict the population decline may slow this year due to the waning effects of the pandemic and the auspicious year of the dragon, Yuan Xin, a professor at Nankai University and vice-president of the China Population Association, added that "the downward trend in China's total population is bound to be long-term and become an inherent characteristic."