Europe’s China ties further tangled by rise of French far right

BRUSSELS -- French President Emmanuel Macron's decision to call a snap national legislative election following heavy losses to the far right in the European parliamentary polls widens the fissure in the bloc's stance over its relationship with China, analysts said on Monday.

Marine Le Pen's far-right Rassemblement National (RN) is estimated to have won nearly a third of the vote in France for the European elections that took place Thursday to Sunday, more than double the tally for Macron's own party, according to exit polls.

The center-right European People's Party (EPP) remains the largest party in Europe, having grown its presence slightly. But right-wing parties had their strongest performance, winning a quarter of votes overall. Macron's own losses prompted him to call a snap legislative election late on Sunday, with two rounds of voting scheduled for June 30 and July 7.

In France, legislative elections are separate from presidential elections. Since Macron's term as president lasts until 2027, he would continue to control defense and foreign affairs under the French constitution even if the RN wins the legislative election, while legislators would oversee domestic issues. He would, however, be in a much weakened position.

France and Germany are the two largest and most influential members of the European bloc and whatever happens in their political landscapes has a tangible impact on Europe. Macron has always been keen for France to take a leading role in geopolitics on its own, and has been seen at times as being more accommodating to China than the EU leadership.

On the other hand, he is also a strong proponent of aid to Ukraine, even suggesting recently that France could send ground troops to fight Russia's invasion. This stance has put him at odds with Chinese President Xi Jinping, who called the China-Russia relationship a "friendship without limits."

James Moran, senior research fellow at Belgian think tank CEPS, said that if the far right wins and is able to form a government after the French elections, it will be "harder for Macron, and, thus, the EU to maintain the lines on Russia or Ukraine, and China," although he pointed to the fact that Macron will still have control over foreign affairs.

Alicia Garcia-Herrero, senior research fellow at Brussels-based think tank Bruegel, agreed that Macron's move could have far-reaching implications. If RN wins the election, it will be the first time that France comes under a far-right government since World War II.

Macron was "quite bold" to call the French elections, Garcia-Herrero said, given there was "a lot at stake."

"He knows that the future of Europe is in his hands and the future of European relations with China, Russia," she said.

The greatest problem for the EU is the widening divide among its 27 countries on how to deal with China. Some centrist parties want to pull China in line with global trade and human rights rules, while some right-wing parties are anti-Beijing simply on ideological grounds and others, such as Hungary's far-right leader Viktor Orban, are actively courting China.

"Fragmentation is the problem" in reaching consensus, Garcia-Herrero said.

Indeed, parliamentarians interviewed by Nikkei Asia reflected the myriad views within the bloc.

Andrius Kubilius, a Lithuanian EPP lawmaker, said that the EU would maintain its increasing scrutiny of dependency on China.

"The de-risking policy will continue. The EU will continue to be very cautious with [the] Chinese market and investments," said Kubilius, a former prime minister of Lithuania. "We are fighting for equal competition rules," he said, referring to China's heavily subsidized industries.

A lawmaker from the far-right pan-European Identity and Democracy party, which made significant gains in the elections, said his group was "very skeptical" of China. "As a staunch anti-communist party, the presence of China in our daily lives is a threat," said Tom Vandendriessche.

Yet even within the far-right bloc there are differences. Moran pointed to Italy's right-wing Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, who he said has been "unexpectedly constructive on foreign policy issues," including the EU's China de-risking stance and over aid to Ukraine.

What analysts seem to agree on, though, is that with the far-right's hold over Europe, the bloc's relationship with China will center more on trade protectionism than upholding human rights and democratic values.

"For China policy, the results pave the way for the consensus forged during the last mandate, approaching China primarily as a challenge, to continue," said Grzegorz Stec, head of the Mercator Institute for China Studies in Brussels. But he added that with the right wing's rise, the "EU's China agenda is likely to focus more on economic risks compared to values-related concerns."

The bloc's commitment to green policies will also be tested. Analysts said policies already in place, such as the carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM), would be hard to reverse. But the far right could slow down progress, given their objection to the EU's green deal, which aims for the bloc to be carbon-neutral by 2050. Many Asian countries have protested against CBAM over the potential impacts on their exports to the EU.

"The European industry is very much pushing for CBAM for competitiveness reasons," said Mats Engstrom, senior policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations. "They feel they should be protected from unfair competition."

However, geopolitics and global trade tensions could make it "more challenging for the EU to, for example, expand CBAM to include more sectors, like chemicals," Engstrom said.(Nikkei Asia)