Even chance world will breach 1.5˚C warming within 5 years: UN

Geneva AFP May 10 - There is an even chance that global temperatures will temporarily breach the benchmark of 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels in one of the next 5 years, the United Nations warned Tuesday.
“The chance of global near-surface temperature exceeding 1.5C above pre-industrial levels at least one year between 2022 and 2026 is about as likely as not,” the UN’s World Meteorological Organization said in an annual climate update.

The WMO put the likelihood at 48 percent, and said it was increasing with time.
An average temperature of 1.5 C above the pre-industrial level across a multi-year period would breach the Paris aspirational target.  The 2015 Paris Agreement on climate change saw countries agree to cap global warming at “well below” 2C above levels measured between 1850 and 1900 - and 1.5C if possible.

There is also a 93 percent chance of at least one year between 2022-2026 becoming the warmest on record and dislodging 2016 from the top ranking, said the WMO.

The chance of the 5-year temperature average for 2022-2026 being higher than the last five years (2017-2021) was also put at 93 percent.

“This study shows -with a high level of scientific skill -that we are getting measurably closer to temporarily reaching the lower target of the Paris Agreement,. The 1.5C figure is not some random statistic. It is rather an indicator of the point at which climate impacts will become increasingly harmful for people and indeed the entire planet.” WMO chief Petteri Taalas said.