Hambantota Port as China’s Next Naval Base: Implications & Regional Dynamics

The reports of China mulling to choose Sri Lanka's Hambantota port as its next naval base have sparked significant discussions and debates over the potential implications for Sri Lanka and regional power dynamics. According to a recent report by the AidData research project, Sri Lanka is the top candidate to host a Chinese naval base in the near future. The Hambantota port, which has received a substantial investment of $2.19 billion from China, is considered the most likely location for the base. Equatorial Guinea, Pakistan, and Cameroon are also potential sites for future bases within the next two to five years.

China's significant investment in Hambantota port, coupled with its strategic location and the positive sentiment towards China among elites and the population of Sri Lanka, makes it the prime candidate for a future base.

China, known for its economic influence, has been using its resources to strengthen its military capabilities. It boasts the world's largest navy in terms of warships and has been actively constructing port facilities globally. The AidData report reveals that China has provided loans and grants totaling nearly $30 billion between 2000 and 2021 for the development of 78 ports in 46 countries.

Despite speculation, China has only established one overseas military facility in Djibouti, East Africa. The report states that China invested $466 million in the Djibouti facility from 2000 to 2021, ranking it 12th on the list of Chinese military investments abroad.

Power of a China's navel base

China's rapid rise as a global power has been accompanied by significant advancements in its naval capabilities. One manifestation of this is the establishment of China's naval base in Djibouti, strategically located in the Horn of Africa. This naval base represents a significant expansion of China's military presence beyond its borders and highlights its growing maritime ambitions.

Djibouti's location allows China to protect its maritime interests in the Indian Ocean, secure vital sea lines of communication, and project power further afield. China's naval base in Djibouti serves multiple purposes. Firstly, it supports China's growing economic interests in Africa and the Middle East. China is heavily dependent on energy resources from the Gulf region and relies on secure sea routes for trade. The naval base ensures the safeguarding of these vital supply lines, protecting China's economic interests. 

Secondly, the base enhances China's ability to conduct maritime operations and contribute to international peacekeeping efforts. China has been actively involved in anti-piracy operations in the Gulf of Aden since 2008. 

The naval base in Djibouti provides a strategic hub for China to coordinate and support these operations effectively. Furthermore, the base allows China to project power and influence in the region. With its advanced naval capabilities, China can assert itself as a major player in global affairs. The base provides a platform for conducting joint exercises, training missions, and humanitarian assistance operations, further enhancing China's soft power and influence. The establishment of China's naval base in Djibouti has raised concerns among regional and global powers. Some view it as a potential challenge to existing naval powers, such as the United States and France, which also maintain military bases in Djibouti. The base's proximity to critical chokepoints, such as the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and the Suez Canal, further heightens concerns about China's intentions. 

Furthermore, the base's establishment has raised concerns among regional and global powers, highlighting the shifting dynamics of naval power in the 21st century.

In this context, this article aims to analyze the impact of the possibility of choosing Hambantota port as China’s next base on Sri Lanka's economy, politics, and military, and gauge the response of key regional players such as India.

Background and Historical Context

Hambantota port, located in Sri Lanka's southern region, has long been a focal point of China's maritime expansion in the Indian Ocean. The port, built with considerable Chinese financial assistance, has faced financial and operational challenges since its inception in 2010. Sri Lanka's inability to repay the massive debts incurred during the construction of the facility led to a controversial lease agreement with China Merchants Port Holdings, which currently manages the port and aims to transform it into a major maritime hub.

Economic Impact on Sri Lanka

The decision to establish a naval base in Hambantota poses both economic opportunities and challenges for Sri Lanka. On one hand, it promises increased Chinese investment, job creation, and potential revenue through enhanced trade and commercial activities. China's naval presence could also positively impact Sri Lanka's tourism sector and ancillary industries. However, there are concerns that the port's transformation into a military base might undermine Sri Lanka's sovereignty, divert resources away from development projects, and lead to an influx of Chinese military personnel, hence raising questions about long-term economic benefits.

Geopolitical Ramifications

From a geopolitical perspective, China's establishment of a naval base in Hambantota represents a significant influence in the Indian Ocean, unsettling regional powers. India, already concerned about China's increasing presence in the region, will likely view this development as a direct challenge to its own strategic interests. Sri Lanka's proximity to India makes it a significant player in India's maritime security.

India's Response and Challenges

India is closely monitoring Chinese actions at the Hambantota port due to its strategic history with Sri Lanka and its realization of the potential security threats posed by China's naval presence. India has already begun engaging with Sri Lanka to strengthen security cooperation and prevent Hambantota from becoming a full-fledged Chinese military base. This will require careful diplomatic maneuvering without compromising bilateral relations with Sri Lanka.

In conclusion, the decision to establish Hambantota port as China's next naval base has far-reaching implications for Sri Lanka and the regional power dynamics in South Asia. As Sri Lanka seeks to balance economic growth with security considerations, it must carefully navigate the interests of neighboring powers, such as India, without jeopardizing its own sovereignty and developmental aspirations.