Taiwan election sparks tensions: China faces setback as US extends support

The recent presidential election in Taiwan has rekindled tensions between China and the United States, bringing to the forefront longstanding geopolitical complexities. While China expresses its dissatisfaction over the victory of the Democratic Progressive Party's presidential candidate, William Lai Ching-tein, what appears to have rattled Beijing the most is the congratulatory message from U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken. The official statement issued by the Chinese Foreign Ministry on January 14 vehemently denounced the U.S. State Department's position, characterizing it as a serious violation of the one-China principle and the three China-U.S. joint communiques. Moreover, it was asserted that this stance contradicts the U.S.'s own political commitment to maintaining only cultural, commercial, and other unofficial relations with the people of Taiwan.

China perceives Blinken's congratulatory post to William Lai Ching-te and the Taiwanese people as a "wrong signal" to the self-ruling island's pro-independence forces, often referred to as "separatist forces" by Beijing. In response to the U.S. message, China lodged a strong protest, declaring that it deplores and firmly opposes such actions. The Chinese authorities have made serious representations to the U.S., expressing their discontent with what they perceive as a deviation from established diplomatic norms.

Despite China's objections, the U.S. remains resolute in its engagement with Taiwan. Bloomberg reports that the U.S. is dispatching a delegation of former high-ranking officials, including former National Security Adviser Stephen Hadley and ex-Deputy Secretary of State James Steinburg, to the self-ruling island. This move by the U.S. further underscores its commitment to not be swayed by Chinese pressure and to continue engaging with Taiwan on diplomatic levels.

China's concerns regarding Taiwan's recent election results stem from fears that it might signal a move towards independence. President Xi Jinping, in his annual New Year's Eve address, reiterated China's claim that Taiwan would "surely be reunified" with the mainland. However, executing any military operation against Taiwan is not a straightforward option for China, given the potential involvement of the U.S. and Japan in defending the island.

The U.S.-Taiwan security pact, established under the Taiwan Relations Act of 1979, adds a layer of complexity to China's strategy. Although the U.S. does not diplomatically recognize Taiwan, it has committed to providing military support and protection to the self-ruling island. President Joe Biden has affirmed the U.S.'s commitment to defend Taiwan in the event of a Chinese invasion, despite maintaining Taiwan as an inalienable part of China's territory in official statements.

Military experts argue that any aggressive move by China against Taiwan would be a complex and challenging operation. China, despite modernizing its armed forces, has not engaged in a major war for over seven decades. Detecting and countering visible preparations for an invasion would likely be feasible for Taiwan and the U.S. Nevertheless, there remains ambiguity in the U.S. response to a potential use of force by China, with President Biden stating that U.S. forces would defend Taiwan in the event of an "unprecedented attack."

The involvement of Japan in this geopolitical scenario is crucial. Japanese officials have expressed concerns over a Chinese attack on Taiwan, viewing it as an emergency for Tokyo. Taiwan's strategic importance as a key semiconductor manufacturer and its location across vital shipping lanes make it a significant interest for Japan. Should Taiwan come under attack, there is a prevailing belief in Tokyo that Japan's safety would be compromised, potentially leading to collaboration with the U.S. in defending Taiwan against Chinese aggression.

China has deployed disinformation campaigns against Taiwan for years, particularly around elections, seeking to undermine the island’s democratic system, push pro-unification narratives, and cast doubt on the Taiwan-U.S. relationship. This time around, however, Beijing’s information warfare focused more heavily on local issues and targeted attacks on the DPP, according to fact checkers and experts who spoke to Foreign Policy. And experts warn that China may use similar tactics to try to undermine democratic elections elsewhere—including in the United States.

More than 50 countries will hold national elections this year, including several larger, messier democracies where China has a geopolitical ax to grind, such as India and Indonesia. 

U.S. officials and intelligence agencies have warned that China is stepping up its efforts to interfere in elections around the world, employing the kinds of tactics that have previously been associated with Russia. Researchers have uncovered a massive network aimed at spreading disinformation and propaganda across more than 50 social media platforms, prompting many, including Google, Facebook, Instagram, and TikTok, to collectively take down thousands of accounts last year. Meta, which owns Facebook and Instagram, linked the network—dubbed “Spamouflage”—to Chinese law enforcement agencies.