Terror attack on Chinese nationals in Pakistan poses threat to CPEC’s future

Pakistan's security apparatus has again proven inadequate in safeguarding Chinese nationals, following a deadly attack near Karachi’s international airport. On October 6, two Chinese citizens were killed and one injured in a vehicle-borne improvised explosive device (VBIED) attack. The Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA), a known insurgent group that has previously targeted Chinese nationals, claimed responsibility for the assault. The attack occurred just a week before the high-stakes Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit in Islamabad, and three months after Pakistan launched its new military operation, *Azm-i-Istehkam* (Resolve for Stability).

Despite repeated warnings and mounting pressure from Beijing, Pakistan’s military has struggled to prioritize the safety of Chinese citizens. As a result, China is growing increasingly concerned about Pakistan’s ability to safeguard its personnel and secure progress on the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). Reports suggest that Beijing may push for the establishment of a ‘joint security company’ to oversee the protection of Chinese projects and nationals in Pakistan. Such a move would likely compromise Pakistan’s military independence and aggravate tensions with local groups resisting Chinese influence, potentially leading to more attacks on Chinese workers and infrastructure.

These developments threaten to destabilize the bilateral relationship, pushing it into uncharted waters and raising risks of internal political and security instability in Pakistan.

Following the suicide attack, the Chinese embassy in Islamabad issued a travel advisory, warning its citizens to avoid Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa—regions that have seen a sharp rise in attacks targeting Chinese personnel and infrastructure. In response to the attack, China dispatched a task force to Pakistan, urging authorities to step up security measures and ensure the safety of Chinese nationals and projects. A Chinese Foreign Ministry statement emphasized the need for Pakistan to “properly handle the aftermath,” ensure the treatment of the injured, investigate the incident thoroughly, and take stringent security actions to protect Chinese interests in the country.

China has grown more outspoken in its frustration with Pakistan’s failure to prevent attacks on its citizens. Earlier this year, a suicide bombing in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa killed five Chinese workers and their local driver. In June, Chinese President Xi Jinping reiterated to Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif that while China was willing to expand economic ties, it expected Pakistan to foster a "safe, stable, and predictable" environment for business. Furthermore, Liu Jianchao, a senior Chinese official, highlighted that Pakistan’s "internal security deficit" was undermining investor confidence.

The Karachi attack also casts a shadow over Pakistan's attempts to manage its economic relations with China. Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb noted that Chinese Independent Power Producers (IPPs) killed in the attack were involved in energy debt restructuring negotiations with the Pakistani government. Islamabad has been negotiating a five-year extension from Chinese IPPs to defer the repayment of approximately USD 16 billion in energy debts, aiming to reduce electricity prices. However, the delay in repayment could add another USD 1.3 billion to Pakistan’s financial burden. At the same time, China’s pressure to advance the second phase of CPEC in June adds to Pakistan’s challenges, as the country’s deteriorating security and economy could slow progress on the multi-billion-dollar project.

After the Karachi attack, Pakistani officials reportedly assured Beijing of their commitment to bringing the perpetrators to justice and enhancing security for Chinese personnel. Reports suggest that China’s premier intelligence agency, the Ministry of State Security, called for improved "early warning systems" and better intelligence-sharing with Pakistani authorities. Despite these assurances, Pakistan’s efforts—such as the establishment of two special security divisions costing PKR 24 billion annually—have so far failed to protect Chinese nationals.

The security situation in Pakistan is so dire that Chinese Premier Li Qiang and Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif were compelled to “virtually” inaugurate the CPEC-funded international airport in Gwadar, Balochistan, an emblematic project of Chinese investment. The inability to physically attend the event underscores the growing security concerns and waning popularity of Chinese projects in Balochistan and other regions. Both governments are making efforts to project optimism about the second phase of CPEC through symbolic initiatives like the Gwadar airport, but such measures are unlikely to address the underlying issues driving anti-China sentiment in Pakistan.

Li, who became the first Chinese premier to visit Islamabad in 11 years, was met with controversy due to the timing of his visit, which occurred just a week after the Karachi attack. While the visit was framed within the context of CPEC, many analysts believe its primary focus was the upcoming SCO summit. Beijing was deeply concerned about Pakistan's ability to effectively manage the event, fearing that any missteps could tarnish the SCO’s reputation. With attacks on Chinese nationals escalating and the future of the second phase of CPEC uncertain, the relationship between the two countries faces increased strain.