A year of cost cutting And starvation predicted for 2024

Early next year, an El Niño situation is predicted, posing a threat to cultivation in the Yala Season

• Although the budget for Agriculture was recently discussed in Parliament, the government overlooked the proposals from the opposition concerning food security
• According to the data provided by the Department of Census and Statistics 5.7 million people in Sri Lanka require humanitarian aid for their survival
• The monthly income for 20 percent of Sri Lanka’s population is only 17,500 rupees
• * The 250 million rupees allocated for food security in this year’s budget fell short and was barely sufficient to safeguard a single crop
• * Parents are finding it challenging to prioritise their children’s nutrition
• * With the VAT hike, rice is projected to rise to Rs 300 per kg
• *According to current date available regarding weather the country is expected to experience a drought in 2024

Various opinions have been formed regarding the 2024 Budget Presentation. According to the budget, the allocation of funds to each sector requires close scrutiny; with particular emphasis on funds directed towards agriculture and food. The budget allocates 250 million rupees for food security, 1950 million rupees for fertilizer subsidies, 100 million rupees for farmer insurance, 1800 million rupees for the World Food Programme and 5386 million rupees for farmer pensions. Former Director of Agriculture, K.B Gunaratne told the Daily Mirror that the allocated amount for the agriculture sector is inadequate.

The 250 million rupees allocated for food security in this year’s budget fell short and was barely sufficient to safeguard a single crop. In contrast, 110 million rupees was allocated for five former presidents. Gunaratne said that allocating a mere 2.2 times the figure spent on maintaining these presidents on food security of twenty two million people indicates a lack of commitment from both the president and the government to enhance the nation’s agriculture.
Although the budget for Agriculture was recently discussed in Parliament, the government overlooked the proposals from the opposition concerning food security. The Department of Census and Statistics recently stated that a family of four requires 120,000 rupees solely for food during a single month; which gives a breakdown of 300 rupees per person for breakfast, 350 rupees for lunch, and 350 rupees for dinner. Consequently the estimated daily food expense for one person amounts to 1000 rupees, totaling a personal expense of 30,000 rupees for a month. This data exclude additional costs such as water, electricity, and telephone bills, children’s school supplies, transport costs, tuition fees, loan interests and medical expenses. Examining these figures what reveals is a disheartening situation. The monthly income for 20 percent of Sri Lanka’s population is only 17,500 rupees, while the monthly income for 40 percent of the people is 29,600 rupees. Gunaratne said that the income of plantation workers is exceptionally low; with daily wage of a worker still at 950 rupees.

Humanitarian aid and survival 

According to the data provided by the Department of Census and Statistics 5.7 million people in Sri Lanka require humanitarian aid for their survival; this population constitutes 26 percent of the total population. Data provided by the Department of Census and Statistics further states that one in every four citizens in the country needs humanitarian assistance for survival, as they have no alternative means. This dire situation has escalated due to the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic, resulting in over 500,000 people losing employment. But the government has been unsuccessful in addressing and restoring this situation. Gunaratne said that the government lacks a solution for this issue.
The cost of living for an average family has increased by 75 percent by now. One-third of schoolchildren do not have adequate meals, with the situation reaching critical levels in districts like Ampara, Anuradhapura, Polonnaruwa and Nuwara Eliya. As much as 1.4 million schoolchildren are grappling with malnutrition; placing Sri Lanka among the top 10 countries globally where children are suffering from malnutrition. Moreover, the elderly population of Sri Lanka calculated as a percentage is 12.3 percent; the largest in Asia. Twenty five percent (25%) of the elderly population is affected by dementia. This underscores the urgent need for increased attention to their well-being, particularly in terms of nutrition. While family harmony is more prevalent in other Asian countries, the current economic crisis has led to a decline in familial unity in Sri Lanka. Consequently, there is no proper care for the elderly and parents are finding it challenging to prioritise their children’s nutrition. Gunaratne emphasised on the gravity of this situation, expressing deep concern.
It is the government’s responsibility to ensure food security within a country; a duty that is not being adequately fulfilled. According to the Department of Census & Statistics, the inflation in the country reached 50.3 percent in March and 35.3 percent in April. Food inflation for that month stood at 30.6 percent. Sri Lanka’s GDP was 4.6 percent in 2022 and increased to 7.8 percent in 2023. There has been a growth of 4.6 percent in the gross domestic product from 2022 to 2023. In 2022, the country’s paddy production declined by 1.7 million metric tons. 783,000 metric tons of rice was imported in 2022, incurring an expenditure of 87,500 million rupees. Additionally, maize production experienced a 65 percent decrease in 2022. Various consumer goods that can be produced domestically, including rice, vegetables, fruits, and minor export crops, were imported and their importation has continued. In 2022 alone, more than 800 billion rupees was spent on such imports, including 100 billion rupees for vegetables, 75 billion rupees for sugar and other sweets, 130 billion rupees for grains, 65 billion rupees for dairy products, 15 billion rupees for beverages, 12 billion rupees for fruits, and 40 billion rupees for spices. This level of expenditure is unsustainable for a country like Sri Lanka. Gunaratne said that this issue stems from the absence of a proper agricultural policy or programme in the country.
According to current data available regarding weather the country is expected to experience a drought in 2024. Despite the recent rainfall the presence of inclement weather is anticipated to cease in a few days time. The next rains are forecasted for June. Early next year, an El Niño situation is predicted, posing a threat to cultivation in the Yala Season. The Irrigation Department oversees 73 major reservoirs and 185 additional reservoirs, totaling 258 reservoirs. Water stored in these reservoirs is released for paddy and other crops under the main irrigation system. As a consequence, water levels in the reservoirs will decrease in the first quarter of the following year, as 800200 acres of farmland need to be supplied with water. The current water level in the reservoirs is at 70-75 percent capacity. Due to mud accumulation, water-holding capabilities of reservoirs have reduced. 95 percent of the water released from reservoirs is utilized for cultivation in the Maha season. The total water capacity of the reservoirs is 4200 million cubic metres. Following the release of water required for the 2023/24 Maha season, a certain amount will remain in the reservoirs. However, after meeting the needs for electricity and drinking there will be insufficient water for the 2024 Yala Season. According to Gunaratne, this water shortage will pose a risk to the 2024 Yala season.
The authorities should take immediate action to address this situation. They need to decide whether to live without electricity or starve without food. Thirty-five percent of the country’s rice production takes place during the Yala Season, with the remaining 65 percent taking place during the Maha Season. The 2023/24 season might not become a complete success. This is because famers abandoned 10 percent of cultivated land due to increased production costs. Additionally, issues such as the shortage of seed paddy, insufficient fertilizer supply, irregularities in fertilizer vouchers, reduced access to affordable fertilizers, and the absence of guaranteed rice prices will contribute to a decline in the yield during the Maha Season. The ongoing spread of the insect known as ‘Keeda’ in around 22,000 hectares in the North and East further raises concerns regarding a potential decrease in the Maha Season harvest; which would affect the 2024 Yala Season as well. Moreover, crop fields damaged by heavy rains and flooding have yet to be accounted for. Gunaratne said that it is certain that the anticipated harvest in the 2024 season will not be achieved.
The 18 percent VAT implemented from January 1, 2024, will impose an additional burden on the people; making it difficult for them to afford proper meals. The increased VAT will lead to higher prices for machinery in the agriculture sector, fertilizer, transportation, eggs and milk and locally produced food items. As a result, obtaining a nutritious meal will become challenging for the public. The cost of rice per kilo ranges between 240-260 rupees, with Keeri Samba being scarcely available, and if found, priced at 360 rupees per kilo. Cobra chili is priced at 2000 rupees per kilo, green chili at 1800 rupees, capsicum at 900 rupees, cabbage at 600 rupees, onion at 500 rupees, brinjal at 600 rupees and lime at 1800 rupees. Additionally, an egg costs 60-70 rupees, while a kilo of chicken is priced between 1200-1300 rupees. Gunaratne pointed out that at such exorbitant prices, many people will struggle to afford even a single meal.
With the VAT hike, rice is projected to rise to Rs 300 per kg. The prices of vegetables and meat will also see further increases, foreshadowing the risk of malnutrition due to the lack of affordable food options. This situation is likely to force people into days of enduring food scarcity. Taxes are being imposed on the populace under the pretext of nation-building. In 2021, Sri Lanka’s poverty rate stood at 12.7 percent. By 2022, it escalated to 26 percent, further reaching 37 percent in 2023. It is anticipated to surpass the 40 percent mark by 2024. To alleviate the situation, the country needs a successful agricultural policy capable of reducing the prices of essential foods by 30-40 percent, thereby decreasing household expenses by 30 percent. This could provide some relief to the people. However, Gunaratne pointed out that achieving such a scenario is a distant prospect.
It has been suggested that there will be a food shortage in Asian countries in 2024, as underscored by the President in the budget speech. However, despite this concern, only 250 million rupees have been allocated for food security in this year’s budget, a considerably insufficient amount. The urgent need is to launch a cultivation war programme, cultivating every inch of land in the country. Simultaneously, efforts should be directed toward uplifting local industries. Instead of undermining the country’s agriculture and burdening the people, the government should pursue strategies to uplift them. Nonetheless, according to Gunaratne, such a system hasn’t yet come into existence.