Central Asia’s contemporary strategic issues and international cooperation

Central-South Asia Connectivity Conference held in TashKent, Uzbekistan on July 15-16, 2021 (pictures courtesy: Josep Borrell, EU Foreign Affairs Chief 

This is the final part of a tri series article narrates in detail about the various events that have unfolded in Central Asia over the years leading to a war torn Afghanistan and, highlights an overall outlook

Afghan refugees in Central Asia

Even financial compensation has not lured Central Asian countries into accepting Afghan refugees. Central Asian countries remain closed to refugees and asylum seekers from Afghanistan and uninterested in changing their restrictive policies. European countries are also unwilling to take more refugees, but are ready to financially assist Central Asian countries that allow refugees into their territories. The offer remains without takers.   

In a recent interview, the Uzbek Foreign Minister has said that NATO offered funding to accept thousands of Afghan refugees. In his view, the offer is an attempt to transfer responsibility for the crisis generated by the Western withdrawal from Afghanistan and the ensuing burden to Afghanistan’s neighbors. He further has added the possibility of accepting refugees as a “dead end” for his country, likely referring to a situation in which the Uzbek government is unable to control the inflow of refugees and the refugees themselves are unsatisfied, unable to settle as many desire in third countries beyond the region.   

Taliban equation in CAR 

Taliban takeover of Afghanistan has serious security and economic ramifications on the Central Asian Republics (CARs). Central Asian Republic has already raised concerns of rising Islamic fundamentalism in Afghanistan, which could possibly spillover to the CARs as Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan share a 2,387-kilometer-long border with Afghanistan. The security concerns in the CARs are compounded by the presence of terrorist outfits like Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU), Islamic Jihad Union (IJU), Jamaat Ansarullah as well as radical Central Asian ISIS fighters who have been reported to have joined the ranks of different terror groups in Afghanistan.   

Furthermore, the situation in Afghanistan is counterproductive to Central Asian economic interests from the point of view of getting connected with India’s large market. India’s import-dependent energy requirements could be viably catered to by the abundance of Central Asia’s energy resources, but connectivity projects like the Turkmenistan Afghanistan-Pakistan-India (TAPI) pipeline that has been in the making for decades has ceased to come to fruition because of geopolitical complications. Barring the TAPI, the accentuated instability in a Taliban-ruled Afghanistan and the Central Asian region, will make it even more difficult for any connectivity projects pertaining to Central Asia to proceed at an acceptable pace, something that has anyway not been happening over the years due to a variety of geopolitical reasons. Prolonged period of economic crisis in the CARs could act as a catalyst for political unrest in the region. Instability in Central Asia combined with the presence of extremist outfits both within Central Asia and in the vicinity in Afghanistan would act as a breeding ground for enhanced security challenges through rising fundamentalism.   

India’s import-dependent energy requirements could be viably catered to by the abundance of Central Asia’s energy resources, but connectivity projects like the Turkmenistan Afghanistan-Pakistan-India (TAPI) pipeline that has been in the making for decades has ceased to come to fruition because of geopolitical complications

The governments in Central Asia have a lot to think about and navigate at the moment; a long period of possible economic distress resulting from sanctions on Russia which enhances the likelihood of political unrest in Central Asia due to the people’s unhappiness and this domestic instability acting as a hot bed for fundamentalism that already exists within Central Asia, paired with the prospects of fundamentalists’ spillovers from Afghanistan.   

Another cycle of Russian warnings on the spillover risks from Afghanistan has begun. These periods have recurred frequently in years, with Russian officials cautioning that the Taliban and jihadist groups in the country are looking to destabilize central Asian countries. But, so far we have not seen any indication that the Taliban is remotely interested in instigating a conflict with its Central Asian neighbors, particularly since it took power. And while jihadist groups there have demonstrated some intent to target Central Asia, they seem to lack the capability to mount more than sporadic cross-border attacks.   

Russian Foreign Minister had warned in March that jihadist groups were amassing near the AfghanTajik and Afghan-Uzbek borders, and warned of plans to ‘destabilize Central Asian states’. But, we are as skeptical as ever of its basis. It is believed that Russia has often inflated the terrorism threat and conflict risks stemming from Afghanistan, seemingly as a way to justify its role as a security guarantor in Central Asia. Russia keeps military bases in Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan and often holds joint military drills near the Afghan borders.   

Sri Lanka’s concern 

On Twitter, PM Rajapaksa informed that he spoke to former Afghan President Hamid Karzai in a bid to inquire about the ongoing developments unfolding in the country and further reaffirmed Sri Lanka’s support for Afghans.   
In addition, former Prime Minister Hon Ranil Wickremesinghe has cautioned the government against recognizing the Taliban’s rule in Afghanistan and advocated snapping ties with Kabul, saying one should rethink if the country should be a “party to help terrorism” raise its head in the region. In a statement issued by the former prime minister said: “Everyone fears that Afghanistan would become a center of jihadi terrorist groups under the Taliban rule.” And further has added “There are no justifiable reasons for us to recognize a Taliban rule”.   

It is important to note that the Taliban destroyed the Bamiyan Buddhist Sculpture in Afghanistan, two 6th century monumental statues, which were carved into the monumental cliff in the Bamiyan valley of central Afghanistan 130 kilometers northwest of Kabul. These statues were blown up and destroyed in March 2001 by the Taliban. International and local opinion strongly condemned the destruction of the Buddha statues.   
The destruction of the giant statues by the Taliban in 2001 provoked widespread international condemnation, including in Sri Lanka.   

Another cycle of Russian warnings on the spillover risks from Afghanistan has begun. These periods have recurred frequently in years, with Russian officials cautioning that the Taliban and jihadist groups in the country are looking to destabilize central Asian countries

With this chronology, the global community is yet to recognize the Taliban government. Further, the global community has refused direct engagement, (with a few exceptions who have other focused interests) with the Taliban over human rights, especially those of women, and terrorism concerns. Taliban is yet to demonstrate and prove that their ideology has changed as pledged. What Taliban rule means for the immediate neighborhood, is fluid as at now, and will stay so for a considerable period. The younger generation of Afghans are at crossroads with a bleak future full of uncertainties. World at large has two options: recognize the government and make peace with them, or snap ties completely. I am certain that each nation will factor the pluses Vs minuses when this call is made. The option of positive influence of Pakistan which under political turmoil as at now is as a major regional stakeholder, shaping the Taliban ideology could be a key decisive factor for resolve. However, all nations, including China, India and Pakistan, are clear that dangers are posed by the ascension of the extreme militant groups. It is presumptuous that a cautious synergy could be the optimum way forward to usher stability.   

Outlook 

Taliban has proclaimed a new Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan. Many in Kabul do not trust promises made by the Taliban of an amnesty for their old enemies and those, like women’s rights activists, who sought a different future for Afghanistan. It is my view that the Taliban is playing a meek role as the whole world is beaming on them right now, and they need the funding for the governance. The moment the world focus is diminished; the Taliban will swing back to its old atrocities.   

It is imperative to note that though the army had 3,00,000 plus well-equipped fighters on paper, that many were not available in reality, with few loyal commanders. Afghan Special Security Forces and Afghan Air Force remained the most capable forces and continued to demonstrate operational and tactical proficiency. The regular troops were often commanded by politicians’ incompetent loyal relatives, which had an impact on the troop’s morale, as they went unpaid with alleged pilferage by officials on the military budgets.   

In addition, importantly there was no political will to fight back. With the long grown imbedded ethnic divide, it is a long way to formulate an inclusive stable government with all stakeholders. It is also imperative to stress that the Taliban was a strong outfit that stood against the most sophisticated military for 20 years and has bounced back. With the ongoing Russian/Ukraine conflict and Pakistan PM Imran Khan being ousted the diplomatic and geopolitical reset on Afghanistan is very likely to shift. Two major super powers with an utmost suite of high tech equipment were not successful in stabilizing Afghanistan using all the instruments of national power as Diplomacy, Information, Military, and Economic. It simply says the complexity of the issue. Stability of Afghanistan would be a major contributory factor for Central Asia and the SAARC stability.   

It is important to note that the Taliban destroyed the Bamiyan Buddhist Sculpture in Afghanistan, two 6th century monumental statues, which were carved into the monumental cliff in the Bamiyan valley of central Afghanistan 130 kilometers northwest of Kabul. These statues were blown up and destroyed in March 2001 by the Taliban

It is relevant to note that historically strong ties between Al Qaeda and the Taliban, and a mutually beneficial relationship, ISIS-K has viewed the Taliban as its strategic rival. ISIS K labeled the Taliban a nationalist entity for wanting to govern Afghanistan. Since the U.S. withdrawal, ISIS-K has sought to undermine the Taliban’s legitimacy in the eyes of Afghan citizens and the world by showing the Taliban incapable of constraining terrorism within Afghanistan.   

Against this backdrop, I wish that the resilient Afghan people who have an abundance of natural resources will get the much deserving peace and prosperity soon and bring regional stability overcoming the fearful future and escalating crisis caused by the power shift. Let us envision a bright future for the Afghan people soon.   
 Gagan Bulathsinghala served as the Sri Lankan Ambassador to Afghanistan following his retirement from Sri Lanka Air Force (SLAF) where he held top positions as the Commander and Chief of the Air Staff respectively. His twitter handle is @GaganPB1961. Alternatively he can be reached at [email protected]
Opinions expressed in this article are of the author’s and do not represent the policy of The Edition. The writers are solely responsible for any claim arising out of the contents of their articles.   

According to representatives of the Association for Human Rights in Central Asia, hundreds of Afghans are fleeing to neighbouring countries to escape the Taliban. But without official status in these Central Asian Countries, they are vulnerable and could face deportation