Does India see NPP a major political force in shaping Sri Lanka’s future?

Can we expect any softening in the stance of the NPP regarding the political solution of the ethnic problem after their visit to India?

The five-day visit of National People’s Power (NPP)  Leader Anura Kumara Dissanayake and his three comrades to India last week has drawn a flurry of attention in the political arena in Sri Lanka. It is commonplace Sri Lankan politicians making visits to India and vice versa, but this time the visit of the leaders of the NPP to India has a special significance. 
Dissanayake and his comrades were officially invited by the Government of India for discussion. Indian Government leaders engaging in talks with Sri Lankan political leaders is nothing new. However, this must be the first time in recent decades that New Delhi has officially invited the leaders of a Sri Lankan left political party. 
 It is reported that Indian Minister of External Affairs Dr. Subramaniam Jaishankar, National Security Adviser Ajith Doval and Foreign Secretary Vinay Mohan discussed the Island nation’s economy, political situation, future politics and regional security with NPP leaders. 

After the meeting on Monday, Dr Jaishankar took to ‘X’ and said “ Pleased to meet @anuradisanayake, Leader of NPP and JVP of Sri Lanka this morning. A good discussion on our bilateral relationship and the mutual benefits from its further deepening. Also spoke about Sri Lanka’s economic challenges and the path ahead.”
  During the five-day visit, the NPP delegation toured   Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s home state of Gujarat and the Communist Party-ruled South Indian state of Kerala and held discussions with various parties including think tanks. 
 It is very significant that at a  time when Sri Lanka prepares for two national elections later this year, the  Indian government invited Dissanayake who  has announced his candidature  for the presidential election and who is widely believed to have increased his popular support.
The Janata Vimukti Peramuna (JVP), the flagship party of the NPP  has a history of not translating its impressive rhetoric and media dominance into   votes in elections. People turn out in large numbers for its rallies and processions, but don’t vote for it.However it cannot be said that history will be repeated after the 2022 mass uprising called “Aragalaya” with its left wing overtones.
According to the January  survey conducted by the Institute of Health Policy,a Colombo based research institution, Dissanayake is the most preferred candidate in a likely presidential election this year.Fifty percent of respondents said they would vote for him , while 33 percent of the respondents chose Leader of Opposition Sajith Premadasa and only 9 percent chose President Ranil Wickramasinghe. The survey reiterated the findings of multiple local opinion polls conducted over past year.  
 However it is very difficult believe that Dissanayaka who got only a 3 percent vote in the 2019 presidential election, will be able to tremendously increase his vote base to cross 50 percent in the coming election.If he does it will certainly be a miracle not only in Sri Lanka but in the region as well.
 In any case, it is clear that the Indian government sees the NPP  as an important political force in the current political situation in Sri Lanka. As for the JVP, it has a history of adopting a rabid  anti-India policy from its inception. Anti-Indianism was an important element in the policies of the JVP, which was started by Rohana Wijeweera in the late 1960s after breaking out of the pro-China  Communist Party led by Late N.Shanmugathasan. 
Wijeweera described the Upcountry plantation workers of Indian origin as India’s fifth column  and agents  of Indian expansionism.He was also said to have talked about clearing the tea plantations and planting potatoes.
In the late 1980s, the JVP led a second armed insurgency following the Indo - Lankan Peace Accord. Many a southern politician  who supported the provincial council system in the hope of finding a political solution to the protracted ethnic conflict  was assassinated. Former President Chandrika’s husband actor turned politician  Vijaya Kumaratunga was one of them.JVP also called for a boycott of Indian goods.
After several years, JVP contested the provincial council elections and its members represented in the  provincial councils. At  the same time JVP and its modern avatar NPP have  not given up their strong opposition to the  13th Amendment to the Constitution. 
When President Wickremesinghe announced his intention to fully implement the 13th Amendment last year,  NPP vehemently opposed it as the hardline Sinhala nationalists did. 
 The fact that New Delhi officially invited NPP leaders for discussion shows that  India, in the current geopolitical context, is not bothered about their past anti - Indian policy.
NPP has also changed its stance towards India. In an interview given by Dissanayake last December to Colombo Correspondent of  ‘The Hindu’, Meera Srinivasan, he said, “ We do know that In,who is our closest neighbour, has become a major political and economic centre.So, when we take economic and political decisions , we will always care about how it will impact India.”
What is noteworthy is how the leaders of the NPP, who have been maintaing close ties with China for a long time will deal with China after their visit to India. 
In an interview with a Colombo based  English daily  last week, Member of Parliament Dr Harini Amarasuriya was asked how NPP  would handle relations with superpowers, particularly China and India. 
 She said, “ The ideal position for us to take is one where we are not aligned with any country but one which allows  us to be open every country. We must engage with a country based on an agenda that suits us.Whether it’s India, China or America no other country is going to come and work with us or engage with us without an agenda.If we don’t have an agenda on our own  we will have to act according to their agenda.”

Be that as it may, there is no doubt that the anti-Indian political forces in South Lanka will try to exploit this opportunity  to carry out campaign against the NPP accusing it of being pro India. People like Wimal Weerawansa have already shown signs of it. It remains to be seen how NPP leaders will handle it.
Can we expect any softening in the stance of the NPP regarding the political solution of the ethnic problem after their visit to India? It can be presumed that  Indian officials would not have shown any  interest  in taking up the issues related to the ethnic problem with Dissanayake’s team.
While the visit to India is a major political and diplomatic victory for NPP, many observers wonder whether it is prudent and  appropriate on the part of India  to consider NPP as a  major political force in shaping Sri Lanka’s future.