Scrutinising candidates’ promises Are election manifestos only focusing on tip of economic iceberg?

“The next thing is that I see a lot of contradictions in the election promises in terms of tax reductions, higher salaries and various other kinds of free services, higher subsidies and lower prices to the consumers, but higher prices to the producers and so on. Those are very good for targeting votes, but people don’t understand what they talk about”

- Sirimal Abeyratne, Senior Professor in Economics at the University of Colombo -

The political stage is brewing with all kinds of rosy promises as days close in for the much awaited Presidential Elections. When perusing these documents, one may perhaps be taken aback by the hopes and plans that these candidates have in store for their people; sometimes making it a challenge to choose between either one of them for the country’s hot seat. But in reality, many sectors in the country need restructuring and reforms. From outdated laws to discrepancies within these sectors, many issues need to be ironed out and streamlined to ensure an effective functioning of the state.   

Economic recovery - Saving a sinking ship 

The elections manifestos of main candidates indicate various solutions to strengthen the economic recovery pathway. From proposals such as debt audits to stabilising the rupee to increasing revenue targets, fair taxation policies and so on, most proposals have provided a detailed outline of certain objectives. But economists opine that the priorities lie elsewhere.   

“If I recall our election history, all the time, we have seen competitive bidding for non-existent resources,” said Sirimal Abeyratne, Senior Professor in Economics at the University of Colombo. “This time we have seen it going far beyond the limits as well. In fact the free hand-out system has also been one of the significant sources of our current economic crisis. In spite of that, what I have seen is so many election promises to provide those handouts again and again. The next thing is that I see a lot of contradictions in the election promises in terms of tax reductions, higher salaries and various other kinds of free services, higher subsidies and lower prices to the consumers, but higher prices to the producers and so on. Those are very good for targeting votes, but people don’t understand what they talk about. However these promises are quite unrealistic to my understanding,” he said talking about major weaknesses spotted in most manifestos.  

“What I find really interesting is that Ranil Wickremesinghe is anchoring education on vocational training and he is right up in where all global education policymakers are. The Post School Commission proposal is brilliant and it is in three layers,”

- Dr. Sujata Gamage, Policy Analyst -

Prof. Abeyratne further said that it is important to establish economic progress to maintain economic stability and debt sustainability. “Most candidates seem to have ignored the most critical issue of the country; that is we haven’t achieved anything other than stopping the fall down. We are still getting ready to establish economic progress. This has to be in terms of export orientation and for export orientation to happen, there has to be foreign investments. It means we have a big reform programme to address. I don’t think many of those reforms are highlighted in these manifestos or at least how to get out of this economic crisis or how to avoid another economic crisis which may not be far away if we don’t take appropriate measures,” he warned while talking about missing parts in election manifestos.   

When asked about the immediate priorities for a new leader in terms of the economy, Prof. Abeyratne said that he immediately needs to establish investor confidence in this economy without which Sri Lanka will definitely fall back. “Investor confidence deteriorated due to political uncertainties, unpredictability and inconsistency in policies and factors such as corruption which have to be addressed. But it is not only enough to address those major issues that hinder the economic progress, but there is a need to look for certain low hanging fruits and how to make things happen. These could be medium term measures. We need to identify the low hanging fruits we have to keep right now to show the international investor community that this is the direction that we have taken, eliminating their mistrust, fear and invite them to come to Sri Lanka. So far we haven’t done that for the past 45 years. This is why we have poor performance in foreign direct investments. So that should be the number one priority because we have to avoid any possibility for another crisis,” he said.   

“Political leaders should say where they stand in terms of the development model. People want to ensure their security, safety of their children, ensure that elderly parents are being taken care of, that the environment is being protected, because that is their experience”

- Prof. Siri Hettige, Senior Sociologist

Prof. Abeyratne further stressed on the importance of social protection programmes. “The crisis had an impact on the lives of people, increasing poverty and vulnerability and it had been exacerbated due to immediate policy responses to the crisis. Therefore, by looking at the humanitarian aspect, the government has started with the Aswesuma social protection programme. Social protection in fact needs to be strengthened because that is one of the IMF conditions as well. That has to be the second priority. Some others suggest recovering stolen money for instance, but from international experiences in Philippines and Nigeria, such processes would take 10 years or more to complete. If these processes are prioritised, the ship will sink and people will die,” he added.  

When asked whether a future government should negotiate and work with IMF, prof. Abeyratne explained that there is nothing to negotiate. “The IMF has done an analysis of our debt sustainability and prepared the targets. So even if the next government conducts negotiations they cannot change the framework or targets. But they can do certain adjustments and the room to make those adjustments are available because IMF is also conducting frequent assessments and negotiations. These suggestions could be made and if they are credible enough the IMF will accept them. But nobody could change the basic framework and targets. But of course they can do one thing; they can reject the IMF programme and getaway. That possibility is always there and we have done it in the past as well,” he said in conclusion.   

Education - From promises to action

Education is one of the main priority areas to be addressed. The manifestos discuss extensively on preschool, primary, secondary and tertiary education, vocational training, recruiting teachers and principals among other priorities. Speaking to the Daily Mirror, Dr. Sujata Gamage, policy analyst specializing in planning, evaluation, education and research said that the manifestos could be categorised as fully costed, no-cost with structural changes and distant dreams. “Manifestos are indicative and give us the general direction and ideologies driving these candidates. Therefore we should look at these manifestos as indicative and not as definitive,” she said.   

Dr. Gamage said that except for one manifesto, the others lacked inside knowledge. “What I find really interesting is that Ranil Wickremesinghe is anchoring education on vocational training and he is right up in where all global education policymakers are. The Post School Commission proposal is brilliant and it is in three layers,” opined Dr. Gamage.   

She further said that even though the 50,000 school leavers proposal may not be an achievable target, part of this money could be invested on 14-17 year old children in conducting career guidance camps and other programmes. “His proposal indicates that Rs. 35,000 would be paid per month in apprenticeship. This is a structural change at no cost, but there is an apprenticeship cost involved and who’s going to pay for that? Now that we are coming out of bankruptcy we will have to get funding for development projects from international banks such as the Asian Development Bank and World Bank. Perhaps they could give jumpstart grants, but our education budget is around Rs. 120 billion for post school education and out of that only Rs. 14 billion was allocated for vocational training last year. So, if funding could be increased it will be a huge structural change,” she added.  

Dr. Gamage further said that the SJB manifesto talks about changing the Grade V scholarship exam. “However, the National Institute of Education has to do a curriculum reform every seven years which is supported by the ADB and all proposals included in SJB and NPP manifestos are already included in the reform process. This shows that they are not updated on what’s happening. Politicians only have to make sure that these are being implemented. The change of exams is important and the Grade V scholarship exam has to be made into a higher level of numeracy, literacy and intelligence. But all these proposals shouldn’t be made the law and there has to be a deliberative process from these promises to actions.  

“Both the SJB and NPP have missed new curriculum reforms already proposed to teach religion and values as a subject. Here they learn about comparative religions and values from other religions and then they learn about their religion. But this hasn’t been included in any of the manifestos. We have to do something to break the mold,” Dr. Gamage said while adding that the quality of higher education needs to be improved. 

 
Development and public welfare

Sri Lanka experienced a major brain drain at the height of the economic crisis as many professionals fled the country in search of greener pastures. While economic stability is paramount, people also need to feel safe and secure in their own society. This is a fundamental right that every citizen is entitled to by the Constitution. According to sociologists, the eligible candidates should be clear about their policy frameworks.   

Sri Lanka has undergone various development models over the past 76 years since independence. As the country opened for industrialisation and encouraged an open market economy, Sri Lanka also lost many of its domestic enterprises. “We basically wanted to not only build agriculture, but also use agricultural raw materials to build industries,” said Senior Sociologist Prof. Siri Hettige. “We were cultivating sugar cane and producing sugar, paper, chemicals, steel and textiles and that was a state-led industrial development phase in the country,” he said.   
Prof. Hettige recalled certain policies such as the Language Policy that divided Sri Lankan society and created inequalities among its people. “For example in 1939 we introduced a Universal Free Education Policy. It opened the education sector for almost everyone. That allowed these people in rural areas to access education. Then came the shift to privatization and the open economic policies changed everything. We allowed international and private schools and naturally we didn’t invest in the education sector after this massive expansion. We invested very little. In Korea and some Nordic countries they put in around 6-7% of the GDP for education, but even then we were putting only 1%. Naturally some schools became marginalised and others became prominent. This background is lost in the debate. Policies play a critical role for the better or worse and then you have to distinguish between which is better for the country,” said Prof. Hettige.   

He further said that the next leader should have a holistic approach to development and public welfare. “Political leaders should say where they stand in terms of the development model. People want to ensure their security, safety of their children, ensure that elderly parents are being taken care of, that the environment is being protected, because that is their experience. We have seen how the economy had evolved over the past 70 years. Health, education and transport are three things that matter. 70% of people’s income will be spent on these. Social protection is equally important. If you really have a government looking after people there has to be a better government income. Things can’t be changed overnight and there has to be a balance between the state and private sector. The private sector will concentrate on investment, business and industries and the government will take care of what is needed by the people to live a decent life. It is the responsibility of the state to take care of the commons. These are some important aspects that people need to raise and question from the candidates,” he added.