Sri Lanka’s Presidential race: Ranil, Sajith and AKD vie for leadership amid economic recovery

Sri Lanka is approaching a significant presidential election, which will be a pivotal moment for the country’s political and economic future. Sri Lanka Election Commission announced recently that the 2024 Presidential Elections would be held on a date between September 17 and October 16 this year. The Election Commission was reiterating what was already known. Though a specific date has not been announced, it is speculated widely that the poll is likely to be held in late September or early October.

The main contenders for the presidency are the incumbent President Ranil Wickremesinghe, the Leader of the Opposition Sajith Premadasa, and the Leader of the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP)/National People’s Power (NPP) Anura Kumara Dissanayake. Each candidate brings unique strengths and challenges to the race, and the election's outcome will be influenced by various factors, including economic recovery, voter demographics, and political dynamics.

Key Candidates

Ranil Wickremesinghe, the current President of Sri Lanka, is a seasoned politician and leader of the United National Party (UNP). Wickremesinghe has served as Prime Minister several times and has been a prominent figure in Sri Lankan politics for decades. Wickremesinghe's support base is primarily urban and middle-class voters who appreciate his technocratic approach to governance. He also enjoys significant support from Tamil and Muslim minorities, who see him as a more moderate and inclusive leader compared to his predecessors from the Rajapaksa family.

Wickremesinghe’s administration has focused heavily on economic reforms to stabilize the country’s economy, which was on the brink of collapse. His efforts to secure a bailout package from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and implement austerity measures have been viewed positively by international investors and financial institutions. However, these measures have also been unpopular among some segments of the population due to their immediate impact on living standards.

Wickremesinghe faces criticism for his association with the political establishment and allegations of corruption. His technocratic style, while appealing to some, can be perceived as disconnected from the everyday struggles of ordinary citizens. Additionally, his reliance on minority votes might not be sufficient if the Sinhala Buddhist majority consolidates behind another candidate.

Sajith Premadasa, the Leader of the Opposition, is the son of former President Ranasinghe Premadasa. He leads the Samagi Jana Balawegaya (SJB), a breakaway faction from the UNP. Premadasa is known for his grassroots appeal and focus on social welfare.

Premadasa has cultivated strong support among rural voters and the working class. His emphasis on social programs, such as housing and healthcare, resonates with those who feel left behind by the country's economic reforms. He also has backing from minority communities.

Premadasa's campaign has focused on addressing economic inequality and improving social services. He has criticized the austerity measures implemented by Wickremesinghe, arguing that they disproportionately affect the poor. While his populist policies are attractive to many voters, there are concerns about their feasibility and impact on the country’s fiscal health.

Premadasa needs to articulate a clear and credible economic plan that balances social welfare with fiscal responsibility. His ability to unite the opposition and present a viable alternative to Wickremesinghe’s economic policies will be crucial. Additionally, his campaign must overcome the perception that he lacks the experience and stability offered by Wickremesinghe.

Anura Kumara Dissanayake is the leader of the JVP/NPP, a party with a history of revolutionary socialism. Dissanayake has positioned himself as a reformist and anti-corruption candidate, appealing to younger voters and those disillusioned with traditional politics.

Dissanayake has a strong following among the youth and progressive segments of society. His anti-establishment rhetoric and focus on transparency and accountability have attracted voters frustrated with corruption and cronyism in Sri Lankan politics. Dissanayake advocates for socialist policies aimed at reducing inequality and strengthening public services. While his platform includes measures to combat corruption and increase government efficiency, there are concerns about the practicality of his economic policies in a globalized economy. His ability to balance socialist ideals with the need for economic growth will be a critical factor in his campaign.

Dissanayake faces the challenge of convincing a broader electorate that his policies can lead to sustainable economic development. His party’s revolutionary past might be a hindrance in gaining the trust of older voters and the business community. Additionally, his promise to dissolve parliament immediately upon winning could create political instability, which may deter some voters. Dissanayake’s traditional socialist stance may need to be adapted to appeal to a broader electorate. His recent engagements suggest a willingness to embrace more market-friendly policies, which could help him gain wider acceptance. However, he must clearly articulate how his policies will promote economic growth while maintaining social equity.

Dissanayake’s promise to dissolve parliament immediately upon winning is a bold move that could either galvanize support or create uncertainty. Voters who desire significant political change may find this appealing, while others may fear the potential instability it could bring. The ability to present a clear and stable transition plan will be crucial in gaining voter confidence.

Election Dynamics

The Sinhala Buddhist majority, which makes up a significant portion of the electorate, is expected to be divided among the three main candidates. This fragmentation increases the importance of minority votes, particularly from Tamil and Muslim communities. Wickremesinghe and Premadasa are likely to compete for these minority votes, while Dissanayake’s appeal to progressive Sinhala voters could further split the majority vote.
Minority communities, including Tamils and Muslims, represent about 25.5% of Sri Lanka's population. Historically, these communities have opposed the Rajapaksa family and have shown support for more moderate and inclusive candidates. Wickremesinghe’s record on minority rights and Premadasa’s focus on social welfare make them strong contenders for these votes. The candidate who can best address the concerns of minority voters and ensure their participation in the electoral process will have a significant advantage.

Economic recovery will be a crucial factor in the election. Wickremesinghe’s administration has made significant progress in stabilizing the economy, and the IMF’s positive assessment of his efforts will bolster his campaign. However, the immediate impact of austerity measures on living standards has created discontent among voters. Premadasa’s focus on addressing economic disparities and Dissanayake’s anti-corruption stance offer alternative visions for the country’s economic future. Voters will weigh these economic plans carefully as they decide who can best lead Sri Lanka out of its economic crisis.

Poll Reliability

As parties gear up for the Presidential and Parliamentary elections, an extensive popularity poll on all presidential candidates is reportedly being conducted by an international IT company who conducted a similar poll and predicted the victory of Narendra Modi at the just concluded Indian election.  

It was reported that company run by Indian Americans have been invited here by some organizations and have begun conducting their survey in Sri Lanka by studying the social media accounts of an estimated 9.3 million citizens, and are providing updates to the relevant authorities on their predictions.   

Initially as the company was called in to study the upcoming election wave in Sri Lanka, they studied the social media trends for three months and are now providing updates every two weeks to the authorities on the percentage shifts of all three main presidential candidates - Ranil Wickremesinghe, Anura Kumara Dissanayake and Sajith Premadasa. 

In its latest report submitted recently, the group has predicted a neck to neck tie among all three candidates with all of them failing to even reach 25 percent. According to the latest prediction Wickremesinghe, Anura Kumara and Sajith Premadasa are all maintaining an average of 21 and 22 percent vote base while the undecided voters have been listed above 35 percent. Which means that presently it is the undecided voters who will have the final weight. 

Opinion polls can be unreliable in capturing the true sentiment of the electorate, especially in a politically complex environment like Sri Lanka. Factors such as hidden nationalist sentiments and the influence of social media on public opinion can affect the accuracy of these polls. It is essential to consider a range of sources and perspectives when analyzing voter trends.

Conclusion

The upcoming presidential election in Sri Lanka is poised to be a tightly contested race among Ranil Wickremesinghe, Sajith Premadasa, and Anura Kumara Dissanayake. Each candidate brings distinct strengths and faces unique challenges. Economic recovery efforts and the fragmentation of the Sinhala vote will be key factors influencing the outcome. Minority votes will play a decisive role, and each candidate’s ability to address economic concerns and present a compelling vision for Sri Lanka’s future will be critical.

As the election approaches, voters will scrutinize the candidates' policies, track records, and ability to lead the country through its economic challenges. The candidate who can best navigate these complexities and offer a unifying and forward-looking agenda will have the best chance of securing the presidency and shaping Sri Lanka's future.