A Leadership Change In NPP or SJB Could Shift Final Outcome

51% & 30% -- Not Conclusive! 39% – Undecided!

The stakeholders and the media have reacted strongly to some uncertain or ambiguous poll data. In matters as critical as gauging public sentiment or predicting outcomes, vagueness can lead to anxiety and speculation among those interested. It’s essential to communicate the limitations of the data transparently to avoid misinterpretation or over-reliance on potentially inconclusive results. Recognizing and acknowledging the uncertainty allows for a more informed discussion and helps in making decisions while considering other factors beyond the poll data.

In Sri Lanka, 61% of people have made up their minds about something, while 39% are still unsure or haven’t decided. These undecided folks, who come from different groups, are the result of the drastic reduction in the older guard’s senseless [kepuwath, RED, GREEN, or BLUE], holding significant sway over the future trajectory of Sri Lanka. They have been growing in number over the last 20 years. 

Opinion polls are most reliable when there’s a high level of confidence in the responses. In this case, the uncertainty within the sample suggests that the outcome may not be definitive or fully reflective of the overall sentiment. It might be necessary to consider additional factors or conduct further research to gain a more accurate understanding of fluctuating public opinion.

The JVP has capitalized on the aftermath of the recent Aragalaya uprising, significantly bolstering its influence among the populace, largely driven by disillusionment with the established mainstream political entities. This scenario can be compared to a historical parallel observed in 1956, reminiscent of SWRD Bandaranaike’s use of the 1953 Hartal, [an unexpected turn of events occurred, causing a significant impact on the established UNP Government of Dudley Senanayake] – a movement initially driven by the prevailing popular Marxist sentiment of the early 1930s, ‘40s, and ‘50s, prominently led by figures such as Philip Gunawardene, Drs. NM, Colvin and Wickremasinghe, Kenuamen of LSSP, and the Communist Party.

Last Thursday, the Opposition Leader attended Parliament wearing a black and white shawl which he believed signified a demand for global peace. It seems like there’s a significant focus on symbolism rather than substantive action from the only son of ascendant and meteoric, Ranasinghe Premadasa, the 2nd elected Executive President of Sri Lanka. Sajith Premadasa seems increasingly disconnected. Despite his inheritance of his father’s oratory skills, there’s a perception that he shapes his rhetoric in a way that lacks substance. His attempts at seeking consensus and peace within and outside his party for economic recovery are viewed as unrealistic, paralleling tendencies seen in the Rajapaksas who prioritize short-term gains over long-term stability. The emphasis on symbolic gestures, like wearing a black and white shawl to signify global peace, appears more about “boru shows” than actual impactful measures. He should aim to improve lives and collaborate with the President to steer the country out of its current challenges, focusing on genuine solutions instead of attention-seeking theatrics and unnecessary distractions.

The perceived naivety of the current leadership could create an opportunity for Dr. Harsha De Silva to emerge as a more favourable choice for leading the Samagi Jana Balavegaya (SJB). This shift might not only attract a significant portion of the undecided voters but also potentially steer the party back to Sirikotha and align it more closely with the UNP. Such a move could potentially alleviate the burden that the UNP and Wickremasinghe carries, and distance itself from the people-hated Rajapaksas and SLPP.

Conversely, Dr Harini Amarasuriya leading the NPP/JVP Alliance and Anura Kumara continuing only as the JVP leader might attract the majority of the yet undecided voters to swing in favour of the ‘Malimawa’.
It seems earlier expectations placed the Presidential Election ahead of the scheduled Parliamentary Polls for 2025. However, speculations suggest the Wickremasinghe might dissolve Parliament in January, leading to earlier elections in March 2024. This manoeuvre could offer him advantageous control during this pivotal election period, aligning with his strategic interests.

Finding common ground often involves dialogue and compromise. Encouraging open discussions where all perspectives are heard can help bridge the gap between differing viewpoints. Seeking compromises that would benefit the majority but disregard minority concerns is detrimental. Also, transparency in decision-making and accountability can build trust among parties and the public. Prioritizing policies that address pressing issues while considering long-term impacts can also aid in consensus-building. Ultimately, it’s about fostering an environment where cooperation and progress take precedence over personal or party interests. 

It’s interesting how, despite the President declining to confirm his candidacy, some of his political opponents openly acknowledge that no other leader matches his political experience, expertise, and global influence. It seems that, besides Opposition and SJB Leader Sajith Premadasa and National People’s Power/JVP Leader Anura Kumara Dissanayake, a variety of other potential candidates have emerged for the upcoming Presidential Election. This includes Field Marshal Sarath Fonseka, Patali Champika Ranawaka, Kumara Welgama, business tycoon Dhammika Perera, and the recent entrant, media giant Dilith Jayaweera. Some of them would grab a fair portion of votes.

Dr Indrajith Kumaraswamy

The timing isn’t right for predictions about the upcoming 2024 Presidential or Legislative Elections. As responsible citizens, we must be mindful of the insightful advice by Dr Indrajith Kumaraswamy, the most successful Ex-Governor of the Central Bank in recent times. Addressing a Centre of Poverty Analysis (CEPA) symposium recently in Colombo, he emphasized the importance of stability and approved the government’s economic recovery efforts over the past 18 months. He also commended the incumbent Governor for the role he played in the recovery process. “The Central Bank of Sri Lanka (CBSL) strongly believes that there will be an encouraging growth in the fourth quarter of 2023. But don’t forget that the economy contracted by 10 percent last year. So, it will take a few years to reach where we were in 2021,” he said.“…Our politicians need to behave better. We, as a people, need to behave better,” He continued cautioning against the government that no election should be postponed. 

Recently, the Global Tamil Forum and Buddhist monks joined forces in a commendable step to present the Himalayan Declaration to the President. This advocates for a united Sri Lanka that values community welfare, learns from past errors, etc. Let’s seize this opportunity for a peaceful, prosperous, and joyful place for all Sri Lankans.
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