Assassination of Hamas leader: Questions about Iran’s security vulnerability

Iranian supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei leading the prayer over the coffin of late Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh and his bodyguard in Tehran yesterday, ahead of his burial in Qatar. AFP

Loser Benjamin Netanyahu seems to be in a mighty big hurry to portray himself as a winner, as he comes under immense pressure from the US and other pro-Israeli countries to end his genocidal war in Gaza.

His methodology is to kill as many resistance leaders as possible. But he should be told that the freedom struggle dies not with the death of its leaders.

The targeted assassination of Palestinian resistance group Hamas’ political wing leader and former prime minister, Ismail Haniyeh, in Tehran early Wednesday has heightened fears of the conflict expanding into a region-wide war. Iran has vowed to avenge the martyrdom of Haniyeh, for this widely respected freedom fighter was killed while he was in Tehran as a state guest to attend the inauguration of Iran’s president, Masoud Pezeshkian. But Netanyahu is least bothered. He has gone through similar escalations before. None led to a region-wide war. On April 1, this year, Israel bombed Iran’s consulate office in Damascus, killing eight top Revolutionary Guard officers and several others. Two weeks later, Iran, in retaliation, fired hundreds of missiles and drones into Israel. The attack caused no major damage to Israel. It had only a symbolic value, a damp squib, a controlled attack of sorts at the behest of world powers who did not want the Gaza war to explode as a wider regional war with disastrous consequences to the world economy. 

On an earlier occasion, too, Iran’s response was measured. This came after Iran’s topmost and widely respected Revolutionary Guard commander, Qasem Soleimani, was killed in a US drone attack in January 2020 while he was a state guest of the Iraqi government. Iran’s response was controlled and preceded by warnings.

Yes, controlled and warned. That’s how Iran retaliates. Rational leaders do not jump into war without assessing their strengths and the repercussions. Iran’s leaders are not foolhardy. They take necessary measures to ensure that whatever retaliation they undertake does not lead to a major war because it will only spell economic doom to the country that is struggling to cope with harsh US economic sanctions. Iran does not have nuclear weapons, though it is pursuing a nuclear programme, which it insists is for peaceful purposes. Israel is a nuclear weapon power with at least 300 warheads. Nothing prevents Israel from firing a nuclear missile into Iran, for it knows even if it obliterates Iran’s entire population, the United States and its Western allies will take its side and justify the attack on the basis that “Israel has the right to defend itself.” In their psychopathic slavish mind, if A attacks B and robs B’s possessions, it is A that has the right to defend itself. Their moral nakedness is revolting. 

Iran’s United Nations envoy on Wednesday told the Security Council that “in terms of international law, Iran reserves its inherent right to self-defence to respond decisively to this terrorist act.”

There is no dispute that Israel’s cowardly assassination of Haniyeh while in the Iranian capital is a major security embarrassment for Iran. This is not the first time Israel has attacked a target inside Iran. Scores of Iranian nuclear scientists and engineers have been killed by Israeli agents operating inside Iran. If Israel could kill Haniyeh with such ease, what guarantee do top Iranian leaders have about their security?

The Haniyeh assassination and, hours before that, the targeted killing of Hezbollah’s senior commander, Fuad Shukur, in Beirut, together with the killing of Hamas top commander Mohammed Deif two weeks earlier, well and truly prove Israel’s hi-tech superiority. These killings also send a warning that no adversary is safe from Israel’s reach. All are virtual sitting ducks. It is said that it was through a WhatsApp message sent to Haniyeh’s phone that Israel zeroed in on his exact location inside the state guesthouse, whose precincts were surrounded by a heavy security cordon. 

The attack only confirms the existence of a fifth-column network inside Iran. The Iranian government is not without internal enemies. The biggest suspect is the exiled opposition group, Mojahedin-e-Khalq (MEK). It aims to overthrow the Islamic government. During the Iran-Iraq war in the 1980s, it supported Iraq. Although the United States has branded the MEK as a terrorist organisation, it is an open secret that the group acts as the convenient proxy of Iran’s enemies, including the US and Israel. MEK is a useful intelligence asset for Israel, the US, and other Western nations hostile to Iran. The group has played a significant role in leaking Iran’s nuclear programme secrets to Israel and other hostile nations. 

Rubbing more salt into Iran’s wounds was a claim Iran’s outgoing intelligence minister, Esmeil Khatib, made days before Haniyeh was killed. He said Iran had dismantled the Mossad’s network and described it as his proudest achievement in office.

According to Middle East Eye (MEE), a London-based news portal, Haniyeh’s killing has also raised people’s suspicions that Ebrahim Raisi, Iran’s president who was killed in a helicopter accident in May, actually died at Israel’s hands. The MEE also said that Mohammad Mehdi Esmaili, the culture minister under Raisi, appeared to suggest as much in an X tweet.

“Does this tweet confirm the speculations about the assassination of our dear Raisi?” asked ultraconservative activist Davoud Modarresian in response.

A senior conservative source told MEE that Raisi’s whole family believes he was killed by Israel.

Haniyeh’s killing was indeed a christening by blood for the new president. It took place nine hours after President Pezeshkian’s inauguration, where Haniyeh was a front-row special guest.

That Israel chose to kill Haniyeh in Teheran—and not in Doha, where he lived, taking part in ceasefire negotiations—was indicative of Israel’s provocative conduct aimed at drawing Iran into a conflict and thereby stemming the growing international condemnation against Israel over its genocide in Gaza. 

Iran is capable of a tough response. It possesses difficulty-to-intercept hypersonic missiles that can hit Tel Aviv in quick time. Israel probably wants that to happen so that it can learn what its enemy has in its arsenal and take necessary countermeasures. Iran can also attack through Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen, and Iraq-based Kataib Hezbollah, which also came under an Israeli attack hours before Haniyeh was killed in Teheran.

Meanwhile, oil prices, which have been bullish in recent weeks, rose by one percent yesterday in response to the escalation of tensions in the Middle East. At a time when a crucial presidential election is on in the US, higher pump prices and a rise in the prices of other essential items due to supply chain disruptions may go against the ruling Democratic Party. All efforts will be, therefore, to prevent the current escalation from moving in the direction of an all-out war. A full-scale war is also not in Iran’s interest, as such a war will have disastrous economic consequences for Iran. Neither can Israel fight a war on many fronts on its own for too long a period.

The best outcome for the region and the world at large will be a permanent ceasefire in Gaza with a deal to free Israeli hostages. Perhaps the killings of Haniyeh and Deif give Netanyahu some leverage or face-saving compromise to end the Gaza War. Yet it all depends on how the events will unfold after the impending Iranian retaliation.