China’s salami-slicing tactics a matter of concern: Japanese scholar

Leading Japanese scholar Prof. JIMBO Ken who has specialised in international relations was in Sri Lanka recently and shared his views in an interview with Daily Mirror on topics related to geopolitics and Sri Lanka’s strategic positioning. JIMBO Ken is a Professor at the Faculty of Policy Management, Keio University. He served as a Special Advisor to the Minister of Defence, Japan Ministry of Defence (2020) and a Senior Advisor, to the National Security Secretariat (2018-20). His main research fields are in International Security, Japan-US Security Relations, Japanese Foreign and Defence Policy, Multilateral Security in Asia-Pacific, and Regionalism in East Asia. Excerpts:  

Q  When you say free and open Indo-Pacific, does it mean adherence to UNCLOS (UN Convention on the Law of the Sea) or a set of laws more than that?

Well, among those different versions and perspectives of the Indo-Pacific strategy, what the Japanese government is trying to promote is the ‘inclusive’ approach as reiterated by Prime Minister Fumio Kishida’s speech in India on March 20. Tokyo embraces the diversity of the Indo-Pacific region and has different political systems, levels of economic development, styles of governance, and different sets of foreign relations. In this context, you cannot have a one-fits-all type of Indo-Pacific strategy because, if you define it as such, many countries in the region will say, it is your strategy, not mine. The Indo-Pacific strategy will only succeed if everybody in the region can claim the copyright of this concept.  
The common denominator for the Indo-Pacific should be accommodative to the rule-based international order based on a peaceful, prosperous, fair and accountable regional system. For example, from a private sector perspective, the business environment needs peace, rules and fair treatment for promising investment returns.   

Q  There are ship visits from the United States, India and Japan to Sri Lanka. Whenever there is a port of call by a research vessel from China, it triggers concerns. Is that a matter of concern for Japan?

I am sure that the Sri Lankan government and the people of Sri Lanka began to understand the risk. It is a matter of concern. If China makes the port call by the investigation vessels, there will be a high chance that requests by PLA naval vessels to follow. It can be called salami-slicing tactics. If they succeed in one step, they will take another step. Once such visits become frequent, Hambantota port can be seen that the Chinese PLA has access with special privileges. I am afraid that these sequences will eventually strain the flexibility of Sri Lanka’s diplomacy.   

That really triggers the concerns of India and those countries about whether Sri Lanka will be targeted as a vulnerable point of Chinese influence. Also, that could be a baseline for the more prominent Chinese access space in the Indian Ocean.   
How Singapore handled the Changi Naval Base will be a useful reference to Sri Lanka. While Singapore allowed base access to the U.S. Navy for its logistic support, Singapore also allowed other players including China to visit during the joint training and exercise. Such a balanced way of engagement may be the key to mitigating concerns.  

Q  You mentioned this inclusiveness which Japan advocates at the moment. So when it comes to this region, does Japan have common interests with other powers?

Although every country has a different version of the Indo-Pacific strategy you can still find a common perspective. For example, securing sea lanes of communications and maritime safety should be regarded as a common ground for every nation. Creating an attractive business environment through infrastructure finance also benefits all. But you can also find the huge differences. If you look at Washington’s Indo-Pacific strategy, you can find more competitiveness - how to compete with China by employing military and economic means.   
Japan, on the other hand, is pursuing more cooperation and collaboration as a key of the Indo-Pacific plan. This is why we are focusing more on economic connectivity, capacity building, green economy promotions, infrastructure investments and project financing which is transparent and accountable. One can find the competitive approach vis-a-vis China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) processes. As far as I observe, Japan intends to offer more options and alternatives for those who wish to be engaged.  

Q  There are some experts who advocate trilateral cooperation involving Japan, India, and Sri Lanka. What is your perspective about it?

Japan-India-Sri Lanka trilateral cooperation is a concept that has not been fully exploited. Of course, Sri Lanka has historical baggage with India and is facing another concern -- India becoming a regional hegemon. Sri Lanka may have growing concern over India’s confidence in looking at a more hierarchical picture in the region. If Japan could be involved in the triangular relationship, it can mitigate, or somewhat be the arbitrator in terms of what kind of project financing to be addressed. I think if Japan can play such a role, we are happy to facilitate that.  

Q  In the Japanese Prime Minister’s policy on free and Indo-Pacific, actually, how will Sri Lanka feature in that whole aspect?

Sri Lanka is strategically very important for Japan. On the snapshot, the country is still undergoing a recovery process from sovereign default in 2022. However, Sri Lanka has a huge potential for regional growth in the medium term. In addition, the wider SAARC region led by robust economic growth in India has become increasingly important. Japan has every reason to robustly engage Sri Lanka and the wider region.  

And at the same time, we are maritime nations. The Japanese Self-Defence Force has been looking at Sri Lanka as a very important access point. Our maritime operation in the Middle East is predominantly the anti-piracy operation in the Bay of Aden through the Combined Task Force, CT-151 in Bahrain. Sri Lanka is always the place where we definitely need stable access. It is a good reason for the Japan-Sri Lanka military-to-military cooperation to take place much further. We can jointly promote capacities for maritime patrol and maritime safety off the Coast of Sri Lanka.  

Q  Professor, you mentioned that Japan can play the role of a moderator when India tries to play a kind of a hierarchical role in this region. Now, Sri Lanka and India are going to implement a lot of connectivity projects. How can Japan also contribute to this whole process?

Connectivity is the key to promoting economic interdependence. Tokyo’s “New Plan” for the Indo-Pacific involves engagement in South Asia through the Bay of Bengal Industrial Growth Belt and Northeast Road Network. These projects are expected to promote more connectivity between Bangladesh and Northeast India. Such projects will offer investment opportunities plus bringing in confidence in managing bilateral relations.  
In the process of Sri Lanka’s debt recovery, there will be more opportunities to resume infrastructure finance in Sri Lanka and some will be pursued in collaboration with India.  

Q  What kind of a bearing will G7 and G20 summits have on the global South?

The Global South is spotlighted, once again, as an important concept in our lives. The Russian invasion of Ukraine has deeply tied the coalition among Western countries but divided the world even greater. The West is determined to make Putin’s decision to start this war a historical mistake. They supported Ukraine’s defence as well as imposed economic sanctions against Russia.  

In the UN voting, there were 141 countries who voted against the Russian invasion. There was wider consensus over condemning Russia for its invasion. But for the next step, whether they were willing to join in the economic sanction, only 38 countries joined. They are looking at the much more practical way because they are much more concerned about their own domestic issues, supply chain, food and energy, inflation etc. Many countries did not dare to sacrifice their economy to join in the sanctions.  

There have been certain shocks among G7 states about where they are in today’s world. The world is not supporting G7 in the full sense. From the Global South perspective, the North is not treating in a manner that is compassionate to the South. People in the South often talk about the double standards and hypocrisies of the North.   
The Japanese government is considerably conscious of this divide. Prime Minister Kishida’s statements and our principle is that our mission is definitely trying to be in line with those international principles and rule-based international order. So we are fully aligned with the West in this regard. But at the same time, we are also taking robust steps to how we can really mitigate the world divide in the promotion of specific measures and proposals.  

And that involves the Indo-Pacific strategy. Kishida’s new plan in March didn’t mention much about how to counter China. They mentioned much about the inclusiveness and they came up with the 51 plans without any strings attached, which means that it’s like a ‘Bazaar Diplomacy’. There are so many items that Japan can offer and you can pick and choose what Japan is trying to promote. This is a seemingly strategy-less approach without strings attached. However, as far as I interpret it, the Japanese intention is to connect diverse interests in the region to be mutually promoted in order to mitigate the divide in the Indo-Pacific.