Collective resolve of regional and international actors, a glimmer of hope for Afghans - Air Chief Marshal Bulathsinghala

Afghan women at a networking walk 

Afghanistan has been in deep political divisions, structural governance  challenges, and economic insecurity to impede durable peace and  development progress for years. The interruption of the fragile peace  talks with the Taliban and the withdrawal of the NATO troops have  created more uncertainty for Afghanistan. The power shift made on 15th  August 2021 has complicated the matter further to a very higher  proportion

The United Nations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA) is a  political UN mission established to assist the people of Afghanistan in  laying the foundations for sustainable peace and development. United  Nations Security Council Resolution 1401 established UNAMA on March 28,  2002. Its original mandate was to support the Bonn Agreement of December  2001

Air Chief Marshal Gagan Bulathsinghala addressing a Rotary Club of Colombo meeting in Colombo on May 2 placed before the gathering the current developments in Afghanistan and the importance of humanitarian aid, diplomatic efforts, and global cooperation to address the challenges faced by its people.
The speech delivered at the event is as follows; 
Your club, one of 70 Rotary clubs within Rotary International District 3220 (Sri Lanka & Maldives), holds a prestigious position as the first Rotary club in Ceylon, charted in 1929. With an active membership of 109 distinguished individuals, including leading entrepreneurs and professionals, your collective dedication to serving the community is truly commendable. 

Current developments

Now let me share some of my thoughts and observations on the situation in Kabul, particularly in light of recent events. As the circumstances continue to evolve, I aim to provide you with an overview of my understanding and insights. The current developments in Kabul and across Afghanistan have been swift and profound, reflecting complex dynamics both within the country and on the global stage. The power shifts and the impact on everyday lives have been significant, raising important questions about governance, stability, and international relations. 
These events underscore the importance of humanitarian aid, diplomatic efforts, and global cooperation to address the challenges facing the Afghan people. It is crucial to remain engaged and support the Afghan people during this transitional period. Afghanistan has been in deep political divisions, structural governance challenges, and economic insecurity to impede durable peace and development progress for years. The interruption of the fragile peace talks with the Taliban and the withdrawal of the NATO troops have created more uncertainty for Afghanistan. The power shift made on 15th August 2021 has complicated the matter further to a very higher proportion.
 About 15 million people, nearly half of Afghanistan’s population are Pashtuns and live in the south around Kandahar. Many other groups live in the country as well—Pashtuns are related to the Persian people of Iran, the Tajiks are also Persian, but speak another language called Dari, and the Uzbeks speak a language similar to Turkish. The Hazera’s live in the mountains of central Afghanistan and are believed to be descendants of the Mongols because their Dari language contains many Mongol words. The functioning of Afghanistan’s foreign diplomatic missions has been in a transitional phase since the Taliban’s 2021 takeover of the government by force and renamed as Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan. Most embassies set up by the former internationally-recognized regime, the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan, as of 31 January 2024, China is the only country that has recognized the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan as the legitimate successor to the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan and China, has accredited a Taliban-appointed ambassador. 

Communist regime 

As of December 2023, Taliban appointees for embassy chargés d’affaires have been accredited by Kazakhstan, Iran, Pakistan , Russia, and Turkmenistan. Afghanistan was founded in 1747 when the Pashtun tribes were unified and gained independence from notional British control in 1919. Increased democracy ended in a 1973 coup and a 1978 communist counter-coup. The Soviet Union invaded in 1979 to support the Afghan communist regime, which led to a destructive war. The USSR withdrew in 1989 under relentless pressure from internationally supported anti-communist Mujahidin rebels. A series of subsequent civil wars saw Kabul finally fall in 1996 to the Taliban. Following the 2001, 09/11 attacks, a US, Allied, and anti-Taliban Northern Alliance sprung military action to topple the Taliban for sheltering Osama Bin Laden. UN-sponsored Bonn Conference in 2001 established a process for political reconstruction that included the adoption of a new constitution, a presidential election in 2004, and National Assembly elections in 2005. In December 2004, Hamid Karzai became the first democratically elected president, and the National Assembly was inaugurated the following December and was re-elected in August 2009 for a second term. In 2014 the presidential election was contested by Dr. Abdullah Abdullah and Dr. Ashraf Ghani. Election results were disputed and traded accusations of fraud, leading to a US-led diplomatic intervention that included a full vote audit as well as political negotiations between the two camps. 
In September 2014, Dr. Ghani and Abdullah agreed to form the Government of National Unity, with Ghani as president and Dr Abdullah elevated to the newly created position of Chief Executive Officer. The day after the inauguration the Ghani administration signed the US-Afghan Bilateral Security Agreement and NATO Status of Forces Agreement, which provide the legal basis for the post2014 international military presence in Afghanistan. The presidential elections were held again in September 2019, further, negotiations between the US and the Taliban in Doha entered their highest level. Underlying the negotiations was the unsettled state of Afghan politics however prospects for a sustainable political settlement remained unclear. According to preliminary results in 2019, Dr. Ashraf Ghani was re-elected with 50.64% of the votes; a result which runner-up Dr. Abdullah Abdullah contested and appealed against. After the disputed election Dr. Ashraf Ghani was declared the winner in the final results on February 18, 2020. The results triggered a political crisis. Dr. Abdullah Abdullah rejected the results and called for the formation of a parallel government in northern Afghanistan. In the interim Taliban remained a serious challenge for the Afghan Government in almost every province. Taliban considers itself as the rightful government of Afghanistan and it remained a capable and confident insurgent force fighting for the withdrawal of foreign military forces from Afghanistan, the establishment of sharia law, and rewriting of the Afghan constitution. 

Sustainable peace and development 

The United Nations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA) is a political UN mission established to assist the people of Afghanistan in laying the foundations for sustainable peace and development. United Nations Security Council Resolution 1401 established UNAMA on March 28, 2002. Its original mandate was to support the Bonn Agreement of December 2001. UNAMA mandate is reviewed and extended annually. Presently Indrika Ratwatte is the Deputy Special Representative of the Secretary-General(SRSG) (humanitarian) since November 2023. Taliban vowed to respect women’s rights, forgive those who fought them and ensure Afghanistan does not become a haven for terrorists as part of a publicity blitz aimed at reassuring world powers and a fearful population. The Taliban promised to reopen all schools in Afghanistan, seemingly ending the temporary ban it had placed on girls attending secondary school since its return to power seven months earlier. Two days later, while many girls were enthusiastically preparing to return to school, the authorities reversed the decision and restricted girls over the age of 12 from attending staterun schools. With no plan in place to reopen secondary schools for girls in the foreseeable future, the government issued a new edict and banned girls and young women in Afghanistan from higher education. Further, the U.N. Secretary-General raised “deep concern,” especially when it comes to the future of women and girls. Women’s Rights US Interest the US had a vital interest in preserving the many political, economic, and security gains that have not been achieved in Afghanistan since 2001. The resurgence of the Taliban once again turned Afghanistan into a terrorist haven. Moreover, internal instability in Afghanistan has larger regional ramifications as Pakistan, India, Iran, and Russia all have competed for influence in Kabul and with subnational actors. China has also joined this group expressing a “friendly approach” with the present regime. China says it is ready to move ahead in its relations with the Taliban, but foreign policy experts say Beijing remains apprehensive about what comes next and may not devote a vast security and economic commitment to Afghanistan in the near future. With the ongoing instability, the spill of IDPs into the immediate neighbourhood is also of great concern. As of now Turkey, Iran, and Pakistan are facing the brunt of it. Challenges President Biden’s goal was to move to ‘zero’ troops by September 2021 complete its drawdown and remove its forces from Afghanistan before September 11. The decision highlights the trade-offs the Biden administration is willing to make to shift the U.S. global focus from the counterinsurgency campaigns that dominated the post-9/11 world to current priorities, including increasing military competition with China. Further, President Biden and NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg placed the blame squarely on the Afghan National Government for the stunning and swift Taliban takeover. 

General amnesty 

The Taliban announced a general amnesty for government officials and ordered fighters to maintain discipline as an uneasy calm settled over Kabul. The United States and other nations continued military evacuation efforts for allied Afghans and other civilians. However, the evacuation operations were suspended on 23rd August 2021 when people swarmed the airport in Kabul in a desperate bid to flee. Other areas of the Afghan economy and its society and governance also exemplify the bright and dark sides of Afghanistan’s global connectivity. International donor funding has been the mainstay of the country’s security sector, stimulated its economy and helped build vital institutional administrative capacity. Whatever the costs of being exposed to global and regional influences and forces, the price for Afghanistan of isolation or neglect is far greater. Within a week after the Taliban walked in groups of women, fearful that the Taliban would try to reimpose their stringent and often brutal interpretation of Islamic law, braved retribution and demanded their rights. Others have simply refused to fly the Taliban’s white flag; insisting that the Afghan national flag was the only banner they wanted to fly. Present Situation Mass Deportations; In October 2023, Pakistan announced the deportation of foreign nationals who do not have valid visas /overstayed their visa for more than one year. These deportations primarily affected Afghans who fled to Pakistan after the Taliban’s takeover of Afghanistan. An estimated 3.8 million Afghans are to be deported as per the UN, while Pakistani authorities believe the number to be as high as 4.4 million. Afghans accounted for 95% of the foreign nationals in Pakistan. 
Deportations started on 1 November 2023, and an estimated 546,800 Afghans have left Pakistan by 4 April 2024. Increasing crime and violence, including suicide attacks, is the reason for the mass deportations. However, observers noted there is likely a political reason for the sudden deportations, as the Pakistan Army hoped to pressure the Taliban, who control the Afghan government, into a more cooperative foreign policy. Some also argued that Pakistan is instituting collective punishment against Afghans and Afghan immigrants were being scapegoated for Pakistan’s economic crisis. Humanitarian Crises; Afghanistan is now facing one of the world’s worst humanitarian crises. The Afghan economy has no cash to pay salaries or buy food. According to Save the Children, 50% population faces extreme hunger. Western aid has been suspended/limited because the Taliban government includes designated terrorists. Freezing funds; The Biden administration froze the funds in New York because it was unclear who had the legal authority to access the account.

Humanitarian assistance 

On 11 February 2022, President Biden announced that he intended to move 3.5 billion dollars from the account to a trust fund to support humanitarian assistance in Afghanistan and reserve $3.5 billion for potential legal claims by families of the victims of the September 11 attacks. On 26 August 2022, a judge recommended to not award damages as the bank is “immune from jurisdiction” and that it would “acknowledge” the Taliban as the legitimate Afghan government. The assets freeze led to economic collapse, high unemployment, and widespread hunger. In conclusion, the policies implemented by the Taliban have not only curtailed basic rights but have also exacerbated existing economic and humanitarian crises. The rise of extremism and terrorism under Taliban governance further complicates the path towards peace and stability. However, the collective resolve of regional and international actors offers a glimmer of hope for the Afghan people. Moving forward, it is imperative to prioritize inclusive political processes and ensure that international aid is effectively utilized to address the needs of the Afghan population. By fostering a comprehensive approach that embraces dialogue, cooperation, and diplomacy, we can aspire to create a brighter future for Afghanistan, one that is free from the shackles of extremism and terrorism, and characterized by peace, prosperity, and stability. Taliban government is officially recognized by China, 20 countries have De facto diplomatic ties, and 106 countries oppose recognition. A modern Afghanistan cannot be sealed off. However, to optimize the opportunities offered by global engagement and avoid the pitfalls that can come with openness, Afghanistan needs political leadership and institutions able to manage the pace and scope of interconnectivity. The political cohesion, legal framework, and infrastructure required to take advantage of globalization and minimize its vulnerabilities are unfortunately not in place now with the power shift with the required security and stability. 
(Air Chief Marshal Bulathsinghala is the Director Strategic Development WKV Group, President Association of Retired Flag Rank Officers, Senior Fellow South Asia Foresight Network, Formerly Commander Sri Lanka Air Force and Ambassador to Afghanistan)