Constitutional coup and Rajapaksa politics

Pity the nation, whose statesman is a fox, whose philosopher is a juggler,
and whose art is the art of patching and mimicking
– Kahlil Gibran  

Pity, it is no doubt. This country, more particularly the urban middle class that now goes berserk calling the removal of Ranil Wickremesinghe from the post of PM as unconstitutional and undemocratic, were the same lot that hailed as democratic the removal of D.M. Jayaratne from Premiership, while he had 151 MPs with him, to install Opposition leader Ranil Wickremesinghe as PM with only 43 MPs.
Whatever the constitutional provision used, no civilised person can justify the removal of a PM with a two-thirds majority in Parliament to bring in one’s political ally with a mere 20 per cent of the MPs in Parliament.
And no civilised person could call himself or herself a ‘Democrat’ supporting this shameless change.  
That change was orchestrated, if this country does remember, in the backdrop of an alleged “Temple Trees Coup” on January 8, 2015, midnight.  

President Mahinda Rajapaksa was accused of high treason; conspiring to stay in power despite the Presidential Election defeat. Minister Mangala Samaraweera, in fact, lodged a complaint with the CID.  
That allegation was serious enough to immediately arrest the ‘conspirators’. Yet, for three years and 10 months, for now, none bothered to ask ‘why was that complaint not investigated?  
Even Minister Samaraweera, who complained to the CID, never spoke about it, thereafter. Nor did the PM and his closest allies who were made Ministers of Law and Order ever speak about that alleged “coup”. 

"Can I, therefore, propose to have Parliamentary Elections around March 2019?"

 
This time too, ousting of PM Wickremesinghe to install Mahinda as PM, came with a chilling conspiracy.  
As told to the nation by President Sirisena, the conspiracy to assassinate him (Gotabhaya too) was what triggered the decision to change the Government.  
Massive corruption in the UNP was tagged with it too.  
President in his speech did not fail to implicate an unnamed Minister in the alleged assassination plot, which he said, has not been investigated properly.  
Changes on both occasions were done with ‘conspiracies’ given heavy importance. Thereafter, every night for a few days, there are conspiracies spoken about on MPs ‘leasing out allegiances’ for a few years.  

At the time this is written (31 Oct., night) eight UNP Parliamentarians have leased out their allegiance to PM Rajapaksa making his numbers in Parliament just nine less than the required 113 to prove his majority.  
It could be, by the time this is published, the job is done with firecrackers and Kiribath.  
Or may have a usual Ted Dexter end, ferociously racing up to the 90s but missing the coveted hundred.  
Politics is so corrupt and therefore, wholly unpredictable.  
This uncertainty has led some Colombo ‘observers’ to question the political timing of MR’s move. They tend to believe, it would have been more prudent for MR to have defeated the upcoming budget for 2019, without getting into this constitutional conflict that tarnishes his popular image.  
Internationally, they say, both President Sirisena and MR have now lost all support and IF they cannot muster the minimum required number, they would end up in the dustbin of history.

"Rajapaksa remains the most decisive factor in Sri Lankan politics"

That cannot be refuted, nor contradicted when the qualifying phrase “IF they cannot muster the required minimum number” is written. Yet, that hinges on the question “why did MR then decide to fast-forward his entry into State power, before the budget?”
What needs to be very clearly said at the beginning and with emphasis is, neither of them decides politics on people’s issues and for the people.  
All decisions taken are very much on personal interests. During the past decade or two, all who kept ‘leapfrogging’ from one side to the other have always been voted back to Parliament by the people to sit once again with positions and privileges.  
Thus, the political culture of deciding on personal interests to sit with any Government has been nurtured and fostered by this society itself; by the people who elect governments. It is in such a context, that the move by MR has to be politically read, for he remains with both his ears to the ground, more than any other politician today.  

He was determined to have Parliamentary Elections ahead of the next Presidential Poll, and as I have written before he was gunning for Parliamentary Elections and nothing else.  
The reason was quite plain. He knew quite well that once a person sat as President, he got addicted to the “Presidential throne”.
He was therefore not prepared to allow anyone else to run for Presidency in his name. His demand lately to have Parliamentary Elections did not provoke a loud campaign for elections, as journalists and the urban middle class read and accepted the constitutional provisions under 19 A, as disallowing Parliamentary Elections for four years and six months.
This constitutional provision was not challenged by Colombo Yahapalana Democrats as suppressing of people’s Sovereignty for 04 years and 06 months.  
The constitution nevertheless says, in Chapter I,  
“3. In the Republic of Sri Lanka sovereignty is in the People and is inalienable. Sovereignty includes the powers of government, fundamental rights and the franchise.”  

With the dissolution of Parliament denied for 04 years and 06 months, Sovereignty that includes “powers of government and the franchise” has been made redundant, but accepted as constitutionally valid by the urban middle class who understands and interprets “democracy” as keeping MR out of political power.
As MR too does not challenge this autocratic, undemocratic provision brought along with 19 A, he himself had to find other means of having Parliamentary elections before the 2020 January Presidential Poll.  
The option that was publicly discussed over a month ago, was defeating Mangala Samaraweera’s budget for 2019.  
For two very sound reasons I believe, he dropped the idea and opted to fast-forward his project to have early Parliamentary Elections by other means.  
First is that, as a very seasoned politician who had gone through the political mill with many different fates, his subconscious mind, perhaps told him, collecting adequate numbers to defeat the budget would be a daunting task with Sampanthan, Sumanthiran and most in the TNA voting with the budget, despite its huge allocation for “defence”.  

Two, he knows quite well, this budget is going to be an election budget.  
Also, as Mangala is more pragmatic than most others in the UNP, he would use the budget to reach the rural society, the Rajapaksa bastion of electoral power.  
There can be numerous projects to pump money into villages, that may leave MR at a disadvantage. Allowing it to go was not to MR’s liking. This budget had to be stopped, even if it could be defeated.  
There was, therefore, a political gamble MR had to take. The gamble was to stop the budget from being adopted in Parliament and also collect the required two thirds to resolve to have early elections.

"Whatever the constitutional provision used, no civilised person can justify the removal   

Why did MR decide to fast-forward his entry into State power, before the budget?  "

Thus, his gamble to accept President Sirisena’s offer of Premiership, that stunned all, including the UNP leadership and the funded civil society in Colombo.  
It proves that State power in hand gives the advantage in collecting numbers than politically appealing for numbers, in our Parliamentary political culture.  
It also says, Mahinda Rajapaksa in a way is politically right within our festering political culture, when UNP ministers and MPs meet with Wickremesinghe at Temple Trees, pledged their support to him and then run to Presidential Secretariat to be sworn in as a State Minister or a Deputy.  
It also says, political power decides most things, when the State takes dictates from Mahinda as PM, though his appointment is challenged by the displaced Government, restricted to Temple Trees.  

Mahinda’s decision to sit with State Power as PM for his own advantage seems right with no ordinary Sinhala Buddhist folk protesting against his decision.
The question is, what next? Perhaps Provincial Council Elections first, as Mahinda Rajapaksa believes he is now riding the political wave high and strong.  
He believes he could sweep the PCs as he did the LG Elections. On that strength, he could harvest a two-thirds majority in Parliament to vote for a quick dissolution.  
Can I, therefore, propose to have Parliamentary Elections around March 2019?  
Whether that is accepted or not, Rajapaksa remains the most decisive factor in Sri Lankan politics. Sworn in as PM, promising to have a short-time caretaker Government, he now proves he is the leader the Sinhala South is comfortable with.  

And thus I wrote in the opening chapter of the book Rajapaksa the Sinhala Selfie written one year ago in June 2017.  
“Past midnight on 08 January, Rajapaksa, a man with an ear to the ground, would have known his fate was sealed for the moment. His first public statement after he left ‘Temple Trees’ and landed in his old ancestral house in Weeraketiya was to the exceptionally large crowd that gathered to welcome him. Still smiling to the cameras he told the cheering and wailing crowd, he still remains the leader of the Sinhala people. He meant he was not going to have the curtain down for long. What makes him so defiant and so certain he could bounce back to politics so soon?”
This, therefore, is the reason why the lament “Not Ranil. Save democracy,” with the funded civil society has no real value in Sinhala South.
For, as I concluded the book on Rajapaksa:  
“Reconciliation this new government of Sirisena-Wickremesinghe speaks about is no different to that of Mahinda. The economics of this Government is no different to that of Mahinda both in terms of Chinese dominance and mega corruption…..Thus two and a half years without Mahinda remains as much ‘Rajapaksa’ as it was before.”